Back to Home11/17/2025, 1:55:53 PM

The time has finally come for geothermal energy

153 points
270 comments

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thoughtful

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mixed

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science

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geothermal energy

renewable energy

sustainable power

Debate intensity70/100

The article discusses the growing potential of geothermal energy as a reliable source of renewable power, with comments debating its feasibility, scalability, and potential drawbacks.

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Very active discussion

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1h

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145

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  1. 01Story posted

    11/17/2025, 1:55:53 PM

    2d ago

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  2. 02First comment

    11/17/2025, 3:17:19 PM

    1h after posting

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  3. 03Peak activity

    145 comments in Day 1

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    11/19/2025, 12:58:59 AM

    18h ago

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Analyzing up to 500 comments to identify key contributors and discussion patterns

Discussion (270 comments)
Showing 160 comments of 270
hodgehog11
2d ago
11 replies
I've always been curious why a cost-effective widespread implementation of geothermal energy has never been considered a holy grail of energy production, at least not in the public debate. Much of the discussion is so focussed on nuclear fusion, which seems so much harder and less likely to be reliable.
xienze
2d ago
1 reply
Probably because not everywhere on earth has the same easy access that Iceland has. The article mentions this:

> There aren’t gates of Hell just anywhere. A kilometre below ground in Kamchatka is considerably hotter than a kilometre below ground in Kansas. There is also readily accessible geothermal energy in Kenya (where it provides almost fifty per cent of the country’s energy), New Zealand (about twenty per cent), and the Philippines (about fifteen per cent)—all volcanic areas along tectonic rifts. But in less Hadean landscapes the costs and uncertainties of drilling deep in search of sufficient heat have curtailed development.

kragen
1d ago
It also explains why this is no longer a problem.
pjc50
2d ago
4 replies
Drilling is one of those things which used to be extremely expensive but has very gradually come down in price. Thanks, ironically, to the oil industry. It's unsexy because there's no "silver bullet" waiting in the wings.

It's also quite hard to find suitably hot rocks suitably close to the surface.

Focusing on fusion .. I think that's a legacy of 60s SF, when the fission revolution was still promising "energy too cheap to meter".

tastyfreeze
2d ago
1 reply
Plasma drilling is a recent development that looks promising for unlocking deeper wells for geothermal.
rini17
2d ago
Remains to be seen, it has serious trouble with water getting into the borehole.
buu700
2d ago
1 reply
To be fair, that promise of fission made sense from a purely scientific and mathematical perspective, before running into the practical realities of how its externalities interact with real-world politics. Fission is expensive because in practice it turns out we care quite a lot about proper waste management, non-proliferation, and meltdown prevention.

In a world where anyone could just YOLO any reactor into production with minimal red tape, consequences be damned, fission energy would actually be extremely cheap. Hence the optimism around fusion. The promise of fusion is an actualization of last century's idealistic conception of fission. It can be a silver bullet for all intents and purposes, at least once it's established with a mature supply chain.

psunavy03
2d ago
4 replies
I fully understand that waste management of fission reactors is a Very Big Deal. But I still stand behind the argument that opposing nuclear power in the 70s and onward is possibly the biggest own goal the environmental movement has ever achieved.

At worst, nuclear waste contaminates a discrete section of the Earth. Climate change affects literally everywhere. The correct answer would have been to aggressively roll out fission power 40-50 years ago and then pursue renewables. You can argue that other solutions would make fission power obsolete, but we would have been in a much better spot if it'd at least been a stepping stone off fossil fuels. Instead, we have 40-50 years of shrieking and FUD from environmentalists over an issue that can be kept under control with proper regulation. The US Navy has operated reactors for over 60 years without incident, proving it can be done with proper oversight.

davidw
1d ago
1 reply
A lot of housing politics from 'old school' environmentalist groups are a pretty big own goal as well.

Denser urban living is pretty energy efficient, and forcing lengthy commutes on people because of NIMBYism is a huge waste.

psunavy03
1d ago
4 replies
People want houses. Planners can either yell and stomp their feet about this or adapt to circumstances. It's like electric cars. People want cars. Better they have the ability to have an electric SUV or pickup, because if you try to force them into little tiny econoboxes or lecture them about how they should really be using mass transit, they're just going to flip you the bird and walk away.

Similarly, better to have people be able to have reasonably energy-efficient houses than demanding they all live in apartments.

inglor_cz
1d ago
1 reply
"People want houses."

(Source needed.)

Plenty of people in dense urban areas are happy with living in an apartment and, where I live, buying a condo in the city is at least as frequent as buying a house 20 km away from it for the same price.

Living in suburbia has its downsides - long commute, very limited entertainment and cultural possibilities, very limited choice in schools. Not everyone loves cutting the lawn etc. either, I surely don't.

Of course, a lot depends on factors such as "is the transport authority willing to make public transport actually safe and nice". That requires keeping raving drugged lunatics out of it, plus paying enough money for it. AFAIK in the US, Republicans have an ideological problem with the "paying money for it" part and the Democrats have an ideological problem with the "suppressing antisocial behavior in it" part.

davidw
1d ago
People want a lot of things, many of them conflicting. I'd love a huge house on a large lot in a walkable area and it to be cheap, and also close to nature. Letting markets work is a good way of resolving people's revealed preferences. Some will prefer a condo in a walkable area, others a large lot outside a less expensive city, others will pay through the nose to have a single detached unit in a high cost of living area.
spankalee
1d ago
Allowing people to live in apartments is not demanding that they do.

Reversing the downzoning of the 70s - 00s is about allowing construction in cities again.

davidw
1d ago
People want a place to call home. Those come in many shapes and sizes. Denser living does not mean a smaller living space. By building 'up', you can provide both.

The only ones demanding anything are those who show up to try and stop apartments.

pjc50
1d ago
People want houses, but absolutely hate other people having houses.
pjc50
1d ago
1 reply
Back then, it affected everyone in two ways, which were the things Greenpeace campaigned against: nuclear weapons, especially overland testing, and dumping waste at sea.

Chernobyl took out Welsh farming for years, and in a few places decades, because it spread a thin layer of bioaccumulative poison over the whole of Europe.

psunavy03
1d ago
1 reply
Neither of these have anything to do with running a well-regulated nuclear power program. Chernobyl happened because of the apathy and incompetence endemic to any Marxist-Leninist system, not because a modern democratic state is incapable of regulating the nuclear power industry.

Know what else spreads a thin layer of poison over the whole of the world? Coal power.

ben_w
1d ago
While I agree about the coal thing:

Democracy just as lazy and apathetic is whatever the USSR counts as; the point of capitalism (which is different to democracy) redirect the laziness into something more productive — this works to an extent, but depends on competition which is greatly reduced in the case of nuclear reactors.

This is also why the not-at-all-democratic military reactors around the world seem to be doing fine.

cycomanic
1d ago
1 reply
The problem with that argument is that nowhere did environmentalists in the 70s or 80s prevent nuclear power plants from being build. Nuclear has received much more subsidies than solar or wind ever did (even if we ignore the indirect military->civil subsidies) and it still never became economical. Back in the 70s and 80s coal was much cheaper, and now solar and wind are so much cheaper it doesn't make any sense to invest in nuclear. The nuclear power plants that were build, got built largely for political reasons (energy independence, and military), and the reason why not more got build was not those pesky environmentalists, but that it was expensive.
adrianN
1d ago
I’m relatively sie that at least in Germany the environmental movement had a lot of influence preventing the aggressive pursuit of nuclear power. Your point about subsidies still stands of course, but economics of power generation notoriously ignore the costs of climate change.
buu700
1d ago
I agree. I think the correct environmentalist position at that time wouldn't have been to oppose nuclear, but to advocate for improvements, streamlined approvals, and public investment.

I wasn't really commenting on the merits of 20th century environmentalist movements, more raising the general point that fission power has inherent costs which aren't immediately obvious from a narrow analysis of how much energy is extractable from U-238. Operation of a fission plant requires much more capex and staffing/opex than it would if we didn't care about cleanliness (waste management), security (fissile material theft prevention), or safety (meltdown prevention).

Fusion power is more complex to invent and practically depends on modern technologies that didn't exist 50 years ago, but once the first demonstration plants are operational, marginal costs to deploy and operate more should be much lower and become very low at scale.

Animats
1d ago
1 reply
> Drilling is one of those things which used to be extremely expensive but has very gradually come down in price. Thanks, ironically, to the oil industry. It's unsexy because there's no "silver bullet" waiting in the wings. It's also quite hard to find suitably hot rocks suitably close to the surface.

That's basically it. Most geothermal plants today are in locations where there are hot rocks, maybe geysers, close to the surface. "Deep geothermal" gets talked about, because temperatures high enough for steam are available almost everywhere if you can drill 3,000 meters down. There are very few wells in the world that deep, not counting horizontal drilling runs.

The economics are iffy. You drill one of the most expensive wells ever drilled, and you get a medium-pressure steam line. Average output is tens of megawatts.[1]

[1] https://pangea.stanford.edu/ERE/db/GeoConf/papers/SGW/2020/A...

hluska
1d ago
The economics change when you’re in oil country. My beautiful little province has oil wells drilled between 250 and 2900 metres. Due to corporate ‘issues’ many of these wells are orphaned and remediation becomes a provincial problem. With deep holes and provincially owned electricity and gas companies, geothermal makes more economic sense; it’s robbing a benefit from a big cost centre.

I went to high school with two guys who are working on geothermal as a means to remediate orphan wells. I’m biased in their favour, but the numbers make a lot of sense.

hodgehog11
2d ago
Many others here have talked about the difficulties of geothermal, which doesn't really get to the heart of my question: why the lack of hype around breaking down those difficulties? I appreciate that you took the time to comment on why it isn't so sexy, the SF argument probably has a lot to do with it.
polotics
2d ago
1 reply
There have been numerous trials that had to be stopped because of the triggered earthquakes... Geothermal is not so easy.
microtherion
2d ago
Was going to mention that point: http://www.seismo.ethz.ch/en/knowledge/geothermal-energy-ear...

The worst earthquake that was induced that way was 3.5, but given that one of the quakes happened in an area that had a catastrophic earthquake in the Middle Ages, some caution might be warranted: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1356_Basel_earthquake

fuoqi
2d ago
3 replies
Because unless you sit on top of a volcano, amount of renewable geothermal energy is minuscule. In most places on Earth it's somewhere around 40 mW/m2 (i.e. accounting for conversion losses you need to capture heat from ~500 m2 to renewably power one LED light bulb!). In other words, in most places geothermal plant acts more like a limited battery powered by hot rock, so unless drilling is extremely cheap, it does not make economic sense compared to other energy sources.
dns_snek
2d ago
2 replies
> In most places on Earth it's somewhere around 40 mW/m2 (i.e. accounting for conversion losses you need to capture heat from ~500 m2 to renewably power one LED light bulb!)

Ground-source heat pumps extract about 1000 times more power from ground loops, where does the difference come from?

kragen
1d ago
2 replies
Ground-source heat pumps are irrelevant to geothermal energy sources, and it's unfortunate that the article mentioned them. Ground-source heat pumps are just storing heat from the air during the summer and retrieving it during the winter.
adrianN
1d ago
1 reply
If it can be used to heat houses in winter it’s not irrelevant.
kragen
1d ago
1 reply
Insulation, adobe construction, and vigorous exercise can all "heat houses in winter", but they cannot be meaningfully compared with hydroelectric or nuclear power except in a specific situation.
adrianN
1d ago
1 reply
There are lots of houses getting the majority of their heat from ground source heat pumps. Not so many that are heated with vigorous exercise.
kragen
23h ago
Ground-source heat pumps (with a few exceptions and borderline cases like those mentioned in the article) are not sources of heat, so you can only "get heat from" them in the short term; as with a battery or an interest-free checking account, though you may be able to temporarily run a debit balance, in the long run you can only get out what you put in. This is a fundamental difference from energy sources.
dns_snek
21h ago
1 reply
[delayed]
kragen
20h ago
After a few years of pumping heat out of the ground below the frost line during the winter, they'll freeze the ground solid and stop working (and possibly destroy the foundation of the house in the process, since often the pipes are installed in trenches around the house). Unless they're one of these few borderline systems that drill so deep they really are bringing up fresh energy from the depths, like some of the systems mentioned in the article.
bluGill
1d ago
A number of sources. Often the air above - ground source relies on the ground being the average temperature of the year round air once you get deep. They also tend to run in heating mode half the year, and cooling mode the other half.
kragen
1d ago
While it's true that a geothermal plant is a limited battery powered by hot rock, that doesn't mean it doesn't make economic sense compared to other energy sources.
piva00
2d ago
I think OP meant technology for drilling becoming cheaper rather than the near-surface availability of it.
nickcw
2d ago
2 replies
Why not is explained in David McKay's book Sustainable Energy - without the hot air

https://www.withouthotair.com/c16/page_96.shtml

The problems are that rock isn't a good conductor of heat, so once you've cooled a bit down, you have to wait for it to warm up. Warming only happens very slowly at the rate of < 50mW / m² which limits the amount of power you can get out.

cameldrv
2d ago
1 reply
Couldn't you frac the rock like they do with oil and gas drilling or have a branching borehole?
kragen
1d ago
Yes, that's what this article is about.
hodgehog11
2d ago
That's a really good point, and it does take the wind out of the sails. Isn't it possible that eventually we could drill deeper?
hackeraccount
2d ago
2 replies
Harder absolutely but "less likely to be reliable"?

If economically viable fusion was "cracked" what would the nature of it's unreliability even be?

hcknwscommenter
2d ago
all the machinery used to obtain and maintain an economically viable fusion reaction. Having worked with particle accelerators and synchrotron rings, I'll tell you that stuff breaks down all the time.
pfdietz
1d ago
The reactor breaking and taking a very long time to repair because the repairs would have to be done remotely, with robots. The structure becomes too activated for people to go inside, even after the reactor is shut off.

The reactor breaks because it's a large device operated at high stresses (power/area, neutron loading). There are many components and joints that can fail.

BTW, this means fusion will be expensive, because getting all those components to be reliable right off the bat becomes expensive. No tiny cracks in the welds means expensive quality control.

roadside_picnic
2d ago
2 replies
> a holy grail of energy production

Since you're comparing it to nuclear, I'm assuming you mean electricity production here, not energy production?

It's always worth remembering that electricity only accounts for ~20% of global energy consumption (in the US it's closer to 33%).

I suspect people confuse these two because in a residential context electricity plays a huge part of our energy usage, but as a whole it's a smaller part of total energy usage than most people imagine.

But any serious discussion of renewable energy should be careful not to make this very significant error.

The Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory publishes a great diagram of US energy use: https://flowcharts.llnl.gov/sites/flowcharts/files/2024-12/e...

jimbokun
1d ago
4 replies
What does "Rejected Energy" mean in that graph?

Great chart, by the way.

hluska
1d ago
4 replies
I live in a part of the world that is far below freezing for a significant portion of the year. Thus a large portion of my annual energy usage goes into not freezing to death.

When I drive my daughter to school when it’s -40 fucking degrees, a lot of the energy I use goes into heating my vehicle, swearing, moving and swearing. But this energy also leaks through my windshield, through my exhaust system and through my engine. This energy (heat) doesn’t provide any benefit to anyone and just leaks out into the atmosphere (which we’ve already established is trying to kill me).

That’s rejected energy. Or when it’s below -40, rejected motherfucking energy. :)

mr_toad
1d ago
1 reply
A IC car’s heating system normally taps into the engine’s cooling system, so that heat is mostly free. In a pinch you can actually turn the heater on full to help cool the radiator.
zdragnar
1d ago
1 reply
I had to do that when my radiator sprang a leak on the freeway and the engine heat kept creeping up. Unfortunately it was late summer and not at all pleasant.

I managed to get to a gas station with some stop leak in stock... If they didn't, I was ready to crack an egg in it.

bryanlarsen
1d ago
I once rode in a friend's car in a similar situation. Very much not pleasant. His problem was a thermostat problem, so he hadn't lost all cooling but enough we used the same workaround. Running the heat in the summer time resulted in a couple of very sweaty dudes.
ViscountPenguin
1d ago
1 reply
Do you live out in Siberia or something, seems like a rough environment for most tech.

Sounds like a very unique experience :)

zdragnar
1d ago
Not OP, but upper Midwest US and Canada experience this every year, though where I'm at usually only hits -40 if you include the wind chill.
mcswell
1d ago
"when it’s -40 fucking degrees" Celsius, or Fahrenheit? Oh yeah, it's the same either way :).
tsoukase
1d ago
I am afraid you will be the first to migrate after the energy crisis escalates. Next will be millions that live even a little below 0 (Celsius).
philipkglass
1d ago
Rejected energy means energy that is lost as waste heat without performing any work first. For example, a coal fired power plant may generate 3 megajoules of thermal energy from coal combustion but only deliver 1 megajoule of it as electricity. The other 2 megajoules are lost as useless waste heat.

The 1 megajoule of useful electricity is also ultimately dissipated as low grade heat, but it can do work first (like generating light, or pumping water uphill).

foota
1d ago
It would be nice if before each box where rejected energy is an output, the inputs were split by rejected and non-rejected inputs.
floatrock
1d ago
Only about 30% of the energy in gasoline is converted to useful work in a gasoline car (the 'make metal box go forward' part). The remaining 70% is Rejected Energy (the steam you see going out the tail pipe in winter).

Which (not sure if you did this intentionally or accidentally) brings up an interesting point on the parent comment and the LLNL sankey:

> It's always worth remembering that electricity only accounts for ~20% of global energy consumption (in the US it's closer to 33%).

That "global energy consumption" figure includes a lot of Rejected Energy going out tailpipes and smoke stacks turning burnables into electricity. A secret bonus of wind and solar is if you produce electricity without burning things, you actually decrease the energy demand! If you're not losing 70% of your energy consumption to the Rejected category, you suddenly need a lot less total energy.

iso1631
1d ago
1 reply
At home I use 15,000kWh of oil for heating each year (about 10kWh per litre, 1500 litres), and 8,000kWh of electricity (we use a lot more than the average household). For driving that's another 5000kWh a year if at 4 miles per kWh.

So even in a residential context, electricity is only about 1/4 of the demand. Across the whole country it's less than 300TWh out of 1500TWh, under 20%.

That excludes "imported energy" though, as in goods which used energy to make but were then imported.

amanaplanacanal
1d ago
1 reply
The heating and driving could theoretically be electrified, though it might or might not make economic sense.
iso1631
1d ago
Which will increase demand

Driving can push up the low points (charge cars overnight), but heating would put a lot of demand in winter months, meaning a day time cold day in January with no wind will require a lot of dispatchable electricity, at night time in September with a gale blowing wind will be providing almost all the demand.

Nuclear doesn't really help as it's more expensive than the wind when it's windy and demand is low, and its impossible to build enough to cover the peak January demand unless you spread the fixed cost over the entire year, which means getting rid of every other form of electric production, and you'd still end up paying more per kWh than you would with other forms of storage.

Nuclear can't survive in a free market. It can't scale up to provide for areas of high demand, low supply, and it can't scale down to be affordable when there's high supply and low demand.

6510
2d ago
There is a crazy amount of energy available everywhere but it is not in the interest of the very powerful very wealthy existing players. This isn't some grand CONSPIRACY. For example oil companies may construct energy investment portfolios that would quite sensibly acquire promising energy related research. They do a simple cost benefit analysis then chose to modestly further research it or shelve it. They turn it into valuable pieces of paper that accumulate value over time. What is there for them not to like about it?

I like how David Hamel put it: We live in this thin sliver on the surface of the planet where it is reasonably peaceful. This is the tranquility! It's a good thing! If you go up or down by a mere few miles there is so much energy it kills you.

jamescrowley
1d ago
Until recently, the geographical locations where geothermal is feasible and economic was very limited. Ironically it is tech from fracking/shale gas that is starting to open up a far wider range of possible sites at lower cost.
Iwan-Zotow
2d ago
Power flow is in general very low - ca 50-60 mW/sq.m
__turbobrew__
2d ago
I think it mainly depends on how easy it is to access that energy. I went to Tuscany last year and to my surprise there were geothermal plants everywhere. I have never heard about these plants beforehand, but here they are in Italy quietly powering the countryside and heating greenhouses to grow basil all year around.
1970-01-01
2d ago
3 replies
It always has been. Our problem is switching over existing infrastructure without asinine complainers ruining the revolution. We can't even declare total victory with LED bulbs over incandescent. The war to have solar plants over more coal is falling back to coal thanks mostly to AI. Pushback on geothermal will arrive, I guarantee it.
velcrovan
2d ago
2 replies
> falling back to coal thanks mostly to AI

citation needed

driggs
2d ago
2 replies
There is an enormous push to build and power data centers in the DC / Northern Virginia region, and there's legislation in West Virginia right now requiring all coal-fired power plants to operate at at least 69% capacity at all times to support it.

> “West Virginia has numerous coal plants that have powered this country for decades. We need these plants to remain operational,” [WV Governor] Morrisey said. “… We will never turn our backs on our existing coal plants and we will work with the federal government to pursue new coal-fired generation.”

https://westvirginiawatch.com/2025/09/11/morrisey-shares-new...

https://wvpublic.org/story/energy-environment/data-center-bi...

https://www.wvlegislature.gov/Bill_Status/bills_text.cfm?bil...

dalyons
2d ago
The only way new coal plants get built from today on is with massive lifetime subsidies, because they are uncompetitive. Ie, if they get built it’s for dumb politics not economics
Maken
2d ago
That sounds like they want to subsidize the coal industry. AI is just the excuse.
parineum
2d ago
2 replies
> The war to have solar plants over more coal is falling back to coal thanks mostly to AI.

Also, due to solar not panning out at scale.[1]

More seriously, coal is just cheaper and, with incentives being removed for green energy, it's the cheapest and fastest option to deploy. It's dead simple and well understood reliable power.

[1]https://apnews.com/article/california-solar-energy-ivanpah-b...

outside1234
2d ago
1 reply
The example you chose is of a mirror based Solar system, which yes, is an obsolete technology.

Direct solar continues to be installed at greater amounts every year and coal is economically uncompetitive with basic anything (which is why it is collapsing), and especially against natural gas.

glenstein
2d ago
1 reply
You're exactly right and it raises a question for me. Why do energy generation topics bring people out of the woodworks who cite some very idiosycratic one-off and use it to make out-of-proportion declarations about the utility of a give technology? This is the second one I've seen suggesting solar is doomed when they mean mirrors.

On twitter I saw someone claim PV is useless for heat because non-PV solar water heating is just so much more efficient. Not even true (I think it's a approximately a wash, different advantages in different applications), but very strangely in the weeds on a specific topic. Much too narrow a factual context to substantiate general level claims about solar as an energy writ large.

I think for whatever reason the missing the forest for the trees trap is really potent in energy discussions.

marcosdumay
1d ago
1 reply
> Why do energy generation topics bring people out of the woodworks who cite some very idiosycratic one-off and use it to make out-of-proportion declarations about the utility of a given technology?

They either have only read propaganda pieces from fossil fuel producers or are trying to create some of those.

I would expect the number of people that honestly don't know anything but propaganda to be way higher than the number of people creating propaganda. But there's probably a selection bias due to HN being a somewhat large site with some influence on SEO and AI training.

parineum
1d ago
2 replies
I brought up the mirror plant because the molten salt crucible is an example of an attempt to make solar work after hours. It wasn't viable.

Solar+storage is not a solved problem. The storage problem gets continually hand waived away in the conversations about how cheap solar is.

As I said in a sibling comment, I don't think the people running energy companies are stupid. If solar really was cheaper as a baseline power supply, what it needs to be to replace fossil fuels, they'd be doing it.

marcosdumay
1d ago
1 reply
> If solar really was cheaper as a baseline power supply, what it needs to be to replace fossil fuels, they'd be doing it.

So, you haven't looked at what energy companies are doing for the last 3 years...

parineum
1d ago
2 replies
Sure. Building out renewables while still keeping their coal/methane plants running. Then again, with the abundance of rooftop solar where it's economical, there's really no need for utility level solar. Wind is good still but also inconsistent.

With the way power demand is growing, new fossil plants aren't being built really because renewables can pick up a lot of the new demand but solar is at the point in some places where utilities don't want your excess power.

Renewables are great in the places they fit but they don't fit everywhere.

marcosdumay
1d ago
1 reply
> while still keeping their coal/methane plants running

Methane, yes. The coal plants are being slowly shut down, as they are too expensive to run even after they were paid for.

You also seem to ignore the huge amount of utility-level PV farms and generation-side storage built recently. You are technically correct in that renewables don't fit everywhere, but that's again a common propaganda phrase because they fit the places where almost everybody lives, and long distance transmission already solves the problem for most people outside of that area.

glenstein
1d ago
Exactly. It's also just bizarre to attempt to make the whole conversation about special one-off cases where some regions already have so much solar power that they won't benefit from adding more. When such cases are not at all representative of the global picture, which is that there's abundant need going forward capacity and capability to build it out going forward.

So why focus on the unrepresentative cases, unless the intent is to be misleading? There'd better be a very good reason for being willing to court such misunderstanding that's more substantive than a random aside to tee effect of "gosh renewables, gee, I don't know. Denmark sure has a lot of renewables already, don't forget about that." It's the "You Forgot Poland" of the 2020s.

glenstein
1d ago
>while still keeping their coal/methane plants running

At lower capacity because their generation is being actively offset by renewables.

glenstein
1d ago
"They" are doing it! Remarkably, more than half of new energy generation deployed in the United States this year has been from solar. It's arguably the most shovel-ready form of energy infrastructure that exists right now.

Your framework is bizarre in the extreme. Despite the fact that no one thinks of mirror plants as having anything to do with the future of PV generation, you treat the future of all solar as if it hinges on that consideration. Meanwhile, back in reality, solar power could realistically occupy up to 30% of the grid's energy generation capacity without intermittency becoming a deal breaker. Combine that with the fact that the grid itself is going to continue to grow, and so 30% of whatever that future amount of total generation capacity is going to be a rather extraordinarily high number, solar is going to be an exceptionally important part of the energy generation picture in the future even if we never made an inch of progress on solving the intermittency problem.

So again, it's bizarre in the extreme to take that picture, which is about billions of dollars of grid capacity, and swap that out for a hypothetical relating to mirror plants, which is never going to happen in which no one is seriously entertaining, and to treat that question like it's decisive about the fate of solar power in the future.

This is what I mean about people coming out of the woodwork and treating big picture energy questions like they hinge on these bizarre idiosyncratic hypotheticals that have nothing to do with anything.

dalyons
2d ago
1 reply
Wild take. New coal is not cheaper. There have been no new coal plants built in the US since 2013.

That solar plant you linked is an obsolete experimental technology. Obsolete because regular PV became so much cheaper.

parineum
2d ago
1 reply
> New coal is not cheaper.

I see yow it can read that way but it isn't what I said. Coal plants exist, either shuttered or running low loads due to financial incentives (not favoring them).

Studies show solar is cheaper but businesses continue to choose coal. I think the entity who's entire existence depends on them making the correct financial choice is a much better indicator of economic reality than a study made by people who have zero stake (at best) in the game.

I'm all for green energy but I also don't think people are stupid.

amanaplanacanal
1d ago
The figures I have seen seem to show that newly installed solar and wind is cheaper than running existing coal plants almost everywhere.

What businesses are choosing coal?

quacked
2d ago
5 replies
> We can't even declare total victory with LED bulbs over incandescent.

The LED bulbs I have access to (whatever's in the aisles at Home Depot, Costco, etc.) fail much more frequently than the incandescent bulbs I used to buy, and produce an uglier light that is less warm even on the softest/warmest color settings.

My suspicion is that incandescents were at the "end" of their product lifecycle (high quality available for cheap) and LEDs are nearing the middle (medium quality available for cheap), and that I should buy more expensive LED bulbs, but I still think that there are valid "complaints" against the state of widespread LED lighting. I hope these complaints become invalid within a decade, but for now I still miss the experience of buildings lit by incandescent light.

The other thing with AI--the LED revolution was led on this idea that we all need to work as hard as we can to save energy, but now apparently with AI that's no longer the case, and while I understand that this is just due to which political cabals have control of the regulatory machinery at any given time, it's still frustrating.

drcongo
2d ago
2 replies
Maybe buy your bulbs somewhere else? I'm yet to replace any of the LED bulbs I've bought over the past 15 years and honestly can't even remember the last time a bulb failed.
drcongo
2d ago
Actually, since posting this I've vaguely remembered a previous discussion on here about differences between LED bulbs sold in the US and those sold in UK/EU so maybe that explains it.
ahmeneeroe-v2
2d ago
Mine fail all the time. Cheap Amazon Basics, expensive Phillips.

Do they fail more than incandescents? idk maybe not, but they fail much more often than their advertising would suggest.

quickthrowman
2d ago
1 reply
> The LED bulbs I have access to (whatever's in the aisles at Home Depot, Costco, etc.) fail much more frequently than the incandescent bulbs I used to buy, and produce an uglier light that is less warm even on the softest/warmest color settings.

LED lamps work just fine, you just need to pay more attention when you’re buying them. Philips makes decent LED lamps.

Make sure you’re buying lamps with 90+ CRI, that will help with the quality of light. 2700K is a good color temp for indoor living room/dining room/bedroom lighting, 3500-4000K for kitchen/garage/task lighting.

You also need to buy special lamps if you put them in an enclosed fixture, look for ‘enclosed fixture’ rated lamps. Regular LED lamps will overheat in an enclosed fixture.

Melatonic
1d ago
1 reply
Yup - CRI is most important. Indoor house plants also like high CRI lights much more as well!
kragen
1d ago
I think houseplants will like horticultural LEDs much more than high-CRI lights.
1970-01-01
2d ago
1 reply
[CITATION NEEDED] They do not. If you take the mean, median, and mode of the failure lifetime for LED bulbs sold at these stores and compare them to the failure times of incandescent bulbs, I also guarantee you are empirically wrong here.
quacked
1d ago
1 reply
I believe this is true for the LED technology compared to the incandescent technology as a whole, but I'm simply turning over bulbs at a far higher rate than I did in the incandescent days. Often the LED bulbs are failing within a year under normal usage patterns. It's possible that using modern LEDs in old fixtures is causing some kind of issue.
quickthrowman
1d ago
Are your LED lamps failing in enclosed fixtures? You need to buy special lamps for enclosed fixtures, regular LED lamps will heat up too much for enclosed fixtures.

Look for ‘enclosed fixture rated’ LED lamps for enclosed fixtures.

foobarian
2d ago
> uglier light that is less warm

I figured out why this happens.

The light color they call "daytime" is around 5000K, so I expected it to look like being outside in the sun; but instead I got a cold blueish vibe. The problem? Not enough power! I got the equivalent of a moonlit room.

So I got this 180W LED lamp (that's actual 180W, not 180W equivalent) [1]. It's so bright I couldn't see for 5 minutes. I put two in my office on desk lamps. The room now looks like being outside, without the "ugly blue" tint, even though the product says it's 6000K. The days of my SAD suffering are over!

[1] https://www.amazon.com/dp/B0962X573M

kragen
1d ago
In many cases you can break one of the resistors off the LED bulb's printed-circuit board and run them at two-thirds of the power so they last forever. In other cases the surgery required is a little more involved than just snapping a surface-mount resistor off with pliers.

None of this will change the CRI.

rspoerri
2d ago
2 replies
at some point we will figure out that because we took some much energy out of earths core that it stops spinning and causes the magnetic field to collapse ;-)
Retric
2d ago
3 replies
Not really how that works. Also earths core is being heated from nuclear decay and tidal effects. It’s getting 10’s or TW worth of heat until the sun expands and eats the earth. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth's_internal_heat_budget
zdragnar
2d ago
2 replies
The world's total energy consumption (most of which is fossil fuels) is currently estimated at 620 exajoules, or 17TWh / year.

Assuming zero growth in energy consumption (hello AI), extracting even half of that seems like it would be consequential.

Retric
2d ago
10 TW * 1 year = 8,760 TWh / year.
dbeardsl
2d ago
I believe this is off by 5 or 6 orders of magnitude.

Looks like it's more like 200,000Twh / Yr

https://ourworldindata.org/energy-production-consumption

danans
2d ago
I think they meant that as a joke.
fanatic2pope
2d ago
Thanks for that wikipedia link, it's fascinating!
anotherevan
1d ago
They've already made a move about that. https://www.imdb.com/title/tt0298814/
trollbridge
2d ago
1 reply
People across the road from have geothermal, driven by a 1.5m-deep pond right near their house. Their heat never costs more than $100 a month in the winter.
danans
2d ago
1 reply
That's a different "geothermal" - the correct name is "ground source heat pump" or in your neighbor's case, a pond-source heat pump. Those exploit the temperature stability that occurs some small numbers or meters subsurface for heating in the winter and cooling in the summer.

"Geothermal energy" involves drilling down to hot rock to tap intense heat to run a turbine that produces electricity.

m463
1d ago
1 reply
wouldn't it be "natural geothermal" if the pond is a naturally occurring hot spring?
danans
1d ago
It wouldn't work very well for cooling then
yawaramin
2d ago
5 replies
It's nuclear fission. It's always been nuclear fission (well, at least since the '50s) and it will continue to be until we commercialize fusion reactors. Everything else is nice to have but it's like NIH syndrome.
toomuchtodo
2d ago
4 replies
Geothermal is fission, and wind, solar, and batteries are fusion at a distance. In both cases, the failure scenarios are benign vs traditional fission generation. It's fine to keep striving for fusion humans control, but the problem (global electrification and transition to low carbon generation) is already solved with the tech we have today. It took the world 68 years to achieve the first 1TW of solar PV. The next 1TW took 2 years. Globally, ~760GW of solar PV is deployed per year (as of this comment), and will at some point hit ~1TW/year of deployment between now and 2030.

Geothermal is a great fit for dispatchable power to replace coal and fossil gas today (where able); batteries are almost cheaper than the cost to ship them, but geothermal would also help solve for seasonal deltas in demand vs supply ("diurnal storage").

https://reneweconomy.com.au/it-took-68-years-for-the-world-t...

https://ember-energy.org/data/2030-global-renewable-target-t...

I also love geothermal for district heating in latitudes that call for it; flooded legacy mines appear to be a potential solution for that use case.

Flooded UK coalmines could provide low-carbon cheap heat 'for generations' - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45860049 - November 2025

yawaramin
2d ago
2 replies
Failure scenario in modern fission reactors is also benign. Reactors are designed to lock down to prevent any leaks.

We deploy solar PV capacity, this doesn't mean we actually get that much power from the deployments. Nuclear fission provides reliable, baseload power, and doesn't require huge battery arrays to compensate for the sun setting or winds calming.

toomuchtodo
2d ago
2 replies
I am unwilling to argue this point considering enough renewables are deployed annually to replace global nuclear fission fleet, even when accounting for capacity factor derating. The race is over, and renewables (with batteries) won.
yawaramin
2d ago
1 reply
> If you can find someone unsophisticated to invest in a fission reactor that takes billions of dollars and 10-15 years to build

Unsophisticated investors like the Chinese government? 'Nearly every Chinese nuclear project that has entered service since 2010 has achieved construction in 7 years or less.'

https://thebreakthrough.org/issues/energy/chinas-impressive-...

toomuchtodo
2d ago
2 replies
They dabble in nuclear, but it is not their focus.

China is installing the wind and solar equivalent of five large nuclear power stations per week - https://www.abc.net.au/news/science/2024-07-16/chinas-renewa... - July 15th, 2024

Nuclear Continues To Lag Far Behind Renewables In China Deployments - https://cleantechnica.com/2024/01/12/nuclear-continues-to-la... - January 12th, 2024

China built more solar power in the last 8 months than all the nuclear power built in the entire world in the entire history of human civilisation. And even if you adjust for utilisation rate to compare against nuclear utilisation China built more solar power generated per hour than all the nuclear power currently in operation generate in an hour - and did so in 12-18 months - https://bsky.app/profile/climatenews.bsky.social/post/3lggqu... - January 23, 2025

yawaramin
2d ago
2 replies
If France–a country known for its strong labour laws and unions–could transition to nuclear in the '70s, any Western country can do it.

Even if the Western world lags behind due to labour regulations, the cost still pays off in the long run due to overall less complex infrastructure and stable, AC baseload power. You are thinking only about the cost of building. What about the cost of maintaining all that infrastructure? Huge solar and wind farms spread out over vast areas, essentially destroying the local ecology? NPPs have a relatively tiny footprint.

Every cited source has a bias. You think 'Clean Technica' is unbiased? Come on.

nagisa
2d ago
1 reply
The options in the '70s were much different from those of today. And for France specifically what they have underground (lots of uranium, no oil, no gas & no coal) strongly suggested exactly one way forward.
cbmuser
1d ago
4 replies
Wind and solar existed in the 70s as well.

Plus, Germany invested 500 billion Euros in its energy transition and is STILL heavily dependent on coal.

kragen
1d ago
> Wind and solar existed in the 70s as well.

This is basically nonsense to the extent that it is becoming difficult to extend the presumption of good faith to you. In the 70s solar panels cost US$25+ per peak watt, in 02021-adjusted dollars: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_energy#/media/File:Solar...

Now they cost 5.9¢ per peak watt: https://www.solarserver.de/photovoltaik-preis-pv-modul-preis...

Installing a gigawatt of solar power generation capacity for US$25 billion is in no way comparable to installing a gigawatt of solar power generation capacity for US$59 million.

Wind power has experienced a similar but less extreme cost decline.

bronson
1d ago
Not really. Solar has gone down in price almost 500X since 1975.

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/solar-pv-prices

Wind has gone down significantly too.

https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy12osti/54526.pdf

It seems like you're going out of your way to be misleading.

dalyons
1d ago
They’re at ~60% total power from renewables in 2025, and increasing every quarter. I’d say they’re doing pretty well! The coal is unfortunate, but was due to the Ukraine war and gas situation.
toomuchtodo
1d ago
This is factually inaccurate. Germany coal use is at historic lows.

https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/germany/

toomuchtodo
2d ago
France had to nationalize EDF because they could not afford the costs associated with their nuclear fleet.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/edf-fleet-upkeep-wil...

cbmuser
1d ago
1 reply
»Your citation comes from an organization with pro nuclear bias.«

Go and throw all your money into renewables stocks and ETFs if you’re so convinced.

I bet you’re not doing that because you realize that the industry isn’t doing well and it’s nuclear power nowadays where all the money goes.

toomuchtodo
1d ago
Personally, I've invested ~500k EUR in a Portuguese Golden Visa fund invested in renewables. Macro speaking, renewables investments keep hitting new records.

https://about.bnef.com/insights/clean-energy/global-renewabl...

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-10-28/white-...

cbmuser
1d ago
1 reply
»Enough renewables are deployed annually to replace the global nuclear fission fleet, year after year, even when accounting for capacity factor derating (to make a like for like comparison).«

Wind and solar do not replace conventional power plants and never will.

Heck, Germany tried that on the small island of Pellworm and failed and yet some people think this will work out for the whole country.

It does not work.

adrianN
1d ago
Pellworm is something like 95% renewable without storage. That really doesn’t sound like failure to me.
Spooky23
2d ago
1 reply
[delayed]
yawaramin
2d ago
3 replies
Things are more expensive when we keep reinventing the wheel and trying to do new things instead of just reusing proven designs. Remember that solar power also used to cost wheelbarrows of cash back in the day. When you do something repeatedly, it becomes less expensive over time.

Nuclear is actually the leader in waste management. No other energy source has as complete a story. Eg what happens to solar panels when they EOL in 25 years? They go into landfills and leach toxic chemicals into the ground. These chemicals, like lead and cadmium are toxic forever. They have no 'half-life' in which their toxicity reduces.

toomuchtodo
2d ago
1 reply
Solar panels are recycled at almost 100% of total materials. Redwood Materials (founded by Tesla's former CTO) has already established a supply chain to ingest and recycle EV and stationary storage batteries at scale. The problem is that the hardware is lasting longer than expected, and meaningful recycling volume does not yet exist.

https://www.epa.gov/hw/solar-panel-recycling

https://www.energy.gov/eere/solar/articles/beyond-recycling-...

https://e360.yale.edu/features/solar-energy-panels-recycling

yawaramin
2d ago
1 reply
> Solar panels are recycled at almost 100% of total materials.

That's very clever wording. If someone glances at this sentence they might interpret it to mean that almost all solar panels are recycled. But your own citation tells a different story: https://e360.yale.edu/features/solar-energy-panels-recycling

> Today, roughly 90 percent of panels in the U.S. that have lost their efficiency due to age, or that are defective, end up in landfills because that option costs a fraction of recycling them.

Let's compare to spent nuclear fuel, which we know for sure does not end up in landfills. I am talking about today, not some hypothetical utopian future. Today, NPP spent fuel is safely sequestered while solar panels are dumped into landfills.

> nuclear waste in the US does not have permanent storage or recycling solutions

It does, it's just not built yet because it doesn't make sense to do it now. In a few decades, maybe a century we will have commercialized fusion reactors. Once we do, we switch to fusion completely and build the deep geological repositories or whatever other solution makes sense then. Or we can even recycle the spent fuel–the only thing stopping us from doing that now is misguided US politics (as usual).

> we keep spending more the more we attempt to build it.

It's capex. We are investing in nuclear technology. If you have a proven design and build the reactors at scale, the costs will flatten or decline, which is obvious to anyone who knows about economies of scale.

amanaplanacanal
1d ago
1 reply
I dunno. Even China, which has built a lot of nuclear, is building way more renewables. Do you think they have it wrong somehow?
yawaramin
1d ago
No, it makes sense because it's cheaper. At least, it is if we ignore the negative externalities and the future costs of maintenance of the infrastructure. Time will tell.
Spooky23
1d ago
1 reply
[delayed]
andbberger
1d ago
1 reply
that seems fine
Spooky23
18h ago
[delayed]
kragen
1d ago
1 reply
Solar panels do not become useless in 25 years and need to be discarded, do not leach toxic chemicals, and do not contain cadmium. They do contain small amounts of lead.
yawaramin
1d ago
1 reply
'The most common reason that solar panels would be determined to be hazardous waste would be by meeting the characteristic of toxicity. Heavy metals like lead and cadmium may be leachable at such concentrations that waste panels would fail the toxicity characteristic leaching procedure (TCLP)'

https://www.epa.gov/hw/end-life-solar-panels-regulations-and...

'Today, roughly 90 percent of panels in the U.S. that have lost their efficiency due to age, or that are defective, end up in landfills because that option costs a fraction of recycling them.'

https://e360.yale.edu/features/solar-energy-panels-recycling

And for good measure: 'Recycling Lead for U.S. Car Batteries is Poisoning People'

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/11/18/world/africa/...

kragen
1d ago
Yes, all of that is correct as far as it goes, and isn't in contradiction with what I said. You'll notice that the EPA page is mostly about an effort to reclassify solar panels as non-hazardous waste, which is specifically because of what I said.
cbmuser
1d ago
2 replies
Look at Electricity Maps and realize that France is the only large industrial country where electricity generation is permanently carbon-free and cheap.

https://particulier.edf.fr/content/dam/2-Actifs/Documents/Of...

bryanlarsen
1d ago
Norway, Iceland and British Columbia are other examples and are more carbon-free than France is. The latter isn't a country and the former don't count as "large industrial"?
toomuchtodo
1d ago
Yes, but unfortunately that is because it is coasting on decades old labor and capital investment that will not be made again.
andbberger
1d ago
68 years ago we already had fission plants. the engineering side of energy production has been solved since then, it's all political now
pfdietz
1d ago
> Geothermal is fission

Geothermal is not nuclear fission. The heat comes from a combination of primordial heat (from the gravitational energy turned to heat as the Earth formed) and radioactive decay (which is some combination of alpha and beta decays; spontaneous fission is extremely rare.)

klabb3
2d ago
1 reply
Ive been very pro nuclear my whole life, but a part of me is disheartened by the mega projects that commercial fission deployments have become (even if the reasons are bad) that’s a problem that nerfs traditional fission. If nuclear remains both political, extremely bureaucratic and requires public investment, it just won’t be the solution, and not because the tech or physics is bad, but the decision makers & investors can no longer organize large infrastructure projects effectively (except maybe China). This is not unique to nuclear.

Having smaller scale local power generation, whether it’s SMRs, solar, wind or geothermal, there’s a huge advantage in terms of economy, investment, and politics.

yawaramin
2d ago
1 reply
Nuclear has broad bipartisan support, and the Trump administration is heavily into it, so I wouldn't count it out just yet. If the various Green parties of the Western world ever come into power though, we are cooked.
klabb3
1d ago
[delayed]
thinkcontext
2d ago
2 replies
It could be but the US and EU have so far been unable to build commercial fission reactors without going 2x+ over budget in time and money. China is having success but even they are not projected to have nuclear account for more than single digit percentages of their generation.

Maybe SMR's, thorium, 4th gen, etc will work out, but maybe not.

ahmeneeroe-v2
2d ago
2 replies
The US Navy consistently builds reactors on-time and in-budget
kragen
1d ago
2 replies
The US and Russian Navies deciding to remain mostly petroleum-fueled is one of the strongest arguments against nuclear becoming very cheap: surely they would do it if it wasn't ruinously expensive, because it eliminates the national security risk of a petroleum blockade and simplifies at-sea logistics immediately.
ahmeneeroe-v2
1d ago
1 reply
Don't presume too much about the US Navy's fleet decisions. Using that same logic you could presume that smaller, aged and poorly maintained fleets are advantageous for naval supremacy since that appears to be the choice of the US Navy for a couple generations now.

Or you could assume that the complete inability to build a merchant marine fleet was also a strategic advantage!

kragen
1d ago
It's not just the US Navy. It's also the Russian Navy, the French Navy, the Chinese navy of the PLA, the British Navy, the Indian Navy. If nuclear power were cheaper than oil, or anything other than much more expensive, at least one of those would have gone all-nuclear.
MathMonkeyMan
1d ago
1 reply
I don't know much about militaries or nuclear reactors, but I know that reactors are used in some submarines and in some aircraft carriers -- situations where you want a vessel to to remain at sea for long periods of time without refueling, and weight is not a primary concern.

That's pretty niche, though. Think about trucks, tanks, aircraft, generators for outposts, etc. It might be cool if you could safely package a zillion nuclear reactors for those use cases, Terminator style, but I'd guess that reactors are a better fit for centralized, permanent power generation.

kragen
21h ago
The Aircraft Reactor Experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aircraft_Reactor_Experiment, yielding 2.5 megawatts, was about two meters tall and one meter in diameter; the fuel was 15kg of U-235, but I think the reactor as a whole may have weighed several hundred kg. (It couldn't have been more than about 40 tonnes, just because no material would be dense enough, but I think it was much lighter than that.)

The smallest nuclear submarine was NR-1, which had a total displacement of 400 "tons": https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/American_submarine_NR-1 so the reactor must have weighed less than that.

The 10MW version of SSTAR was supposed to weigh 200 tonnes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Small,_sealed,_transportable,_...

A 4.95-kg americium thermal reactor design outline has been published: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/239521070_The_Small...

Arleigh Burke class destroyers displace 8300 to 9700 tons, so weight isn't an issue for ships.

Probably you are right that many small reactors would be more dangerous, but warships exist so that they can go into dangerous situations. You have to weigh the risk of a reactor problem against the risk of being unable to fight because you have no fuel.

mr_toad
1d ago
[delayed]
cbmuser
1d ago
1 reply
»It could be but the US and EU have so far been unable to build commercial fission reactors without going 2x+ over budget in time and money.«

The EU also forgot how to build airports and train stations on budget and on time.

Should we stop building airports and train stations?

As for nuclear power plants: Germany and France built most of their reactors on budget and on time.

dalyons
1d ago
50+ years ago, not relevant.
amanaplanacanal
1d ago
That could possibly be true, if fission is cheaper than solar, wind, and batteries.

The renewables are so cheap and quick to provision it's hard to see how fission can compete.

tim333
1d ago
Solar + wind is being installed at about 100x the rate of fission because it's so expensive. And the differential is only increasing.

installs: https://www.pv-magazine.com/2025/01/13/the-fastest-energy-ch...

costs: https://www.reddit.com/r/energy/comments/11q58pe/price_trend...

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