Openai Needs to Raise $207b by 2030 So It Can Continue to Lose Money

  The team also assumes LLM companies will capture 2 per cent of the digital advertising market in revenue, from slightly more than zero currently.

I'd like to think that OpenAI's digital ad revenue should reach 10% by 2030 an then accelerate from there. In my opinion, the data that ChatGPT has on a user is better than the inferred user data from Instagram/FB usage. I think ChatGPT can build a better advertisement profile of each user than Meta can which can lead to better ad targeting.

This doesn't account for OpenAI's other ambitions such as Sora app.

Hey Sam Altman or OpenAI employee, if you are reading this, I think you should buy the North American version of TikTok if the opportunity presents itself. The future of short videos will be heavily AI generated/assisted. Combine Tiktok's audience with your Sora tools and ChatGPT data and you got yourself a true Instagram competitor immediately. If the $14b sales price of US Tiktok is real, that's an absolute bargain in the grand scheme of things.

Unfounded statements (outside of language tasks, fwiw), such as: >LLM subscriptions will become “as ubiquitous and useful as Microsoft 365”, HSBC says.

As well as this bold claim about OAI's potential to double the conversion rate: >It models that by 2030, 10 per cent of OpenAI users will be paying customers, versus an estimated 5 per cent currently.

Does not include a major player in its market share analysis at all: >Google is excluded entirely

And, still, it suggests that: > OpenAI is expected to still be subsidising its users well into next decade

Fascinating.