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  1. Home
  2. /Discussion
  3. /Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia
  1. Home
  2. /Discussion
  3. /Nvidia takes $1B stake in Nokia
Last activity 23 days agoPosted Oct 28, 2025 at 11:53 AM EDT

Nvidia Takes $1b Stake in Nokia

kjhughes
304 points
199 comments

Mood

skeptical

Sentiment

mixed

Category

other

Key topics

AI
Nvidia
Nokia
5g Networks
Debate intensity80/100

Nvidia has taken a $1B stake in Nokia, sparking discussion about the motivations behind the investment and its potential implications for the tech industry, with some commenters questioning the strategic value of the deal.

Snapshot generated from the HN discussion

Discussion Activity

Very active discussion

First comment

9m

Peak period

148

Day 1

Avg / period

40

Comment distribution160 data points
Loading chart...

Based on 160 loaded comments

Key moments

  1. 01Story posted

    Oct 28, 2025 at 11:53 AM EDT

    30 days ago

    Step 01
  2. 02First comment

    Oct 28, 2025 at 12:02 PM EDT

    9m after posting

    Step 02
  3. 03Peak activity

    148 comments in Day 1

    Hottest window of the conversation

    Step 03
  4. 04Latest activity

    Nov 4, 2025 at 7:18 AM EST

    23 days ago

    Step 04

Generating AI Summary...

Analyzing up to 500 comments to identify key contributors and discussion patterns

Discussion (199 comments)
Showing 160 comments of 199
greatgib
30 days ago
2 replies
Maybe they got so much money with the AI boom that they don't know anymore what to do with the cash at hand and so starts to invest it in direct now.
readthenotes1
29 days ago
2 replies
I was reading an article earlier today that said passive investing is more than 50% of the market--and since most ETFs allocate by market cap, it causes a reinforcing feedback loop for market cap leaders.
tverbeure
29 days ago
1 reply
What is the mechanism behind that?

In a hypothetical market with 100% ETFs, you’d have a status quo.

Edit: maybe not, since you have ETFs that invest in, say, Nasdaq only, which is tech oriented and would influence S&P500.

readthenotes1
29 days ago
The problem is that companies with large market cap will get more of any subsequent investment because many fund's allocate new money by current market cap.

If you ever played Risk, or most other games, once the snowball starts, it's hard to stop it.

Of course, since the market has never been like this before, it's a speculation...

basiccalendar74
29 days ago
1 reply
Passive investing is not an issue, but the default bias towards large cap equities like SP500, Nasdaq100. Passive investing through total market ETFs (like VTI) maintains the status quo.

For example, if they are only two companies, say with 1T and 4T market cap. If one invests 5M into a total market ETF, 1M is allocated to company A and 4M to company B. But since company B is 4x bigger than company A, the upward price pressure is the same for both companies.

jo909
29 days ago
1 reply
The money you buy stock with l goes to the former/selling shareholder, which is most often not the company. It is possible the company is holding its own stock and selling for cash, or emitting new shares for cash, but that is much much rarer.
basiccalendar74
28 days ago
by 'allocated', I mean allocated during the purchase decision. not that money is sent to respective company.
stevehawk
29 days ago
they need to ensure future, potential customers and the best way to do that is to own them and tell them to buy your goods.

in five years, NVDA's business strategy will be like CocaCola's, forcing bottlers to buy their syrups.

wnevets
30 days ago
1 reply
Add to the list of AI cash merry go round [1]

[1] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h3JfOxx6Hh4

echelon
29 days ago
2 replies
This isn't the gotcha everyone in the media thinks it is.

Nvidia is using its revenues to quickly invest in bets that are simultaneously customers.

If anything, it's a triple win.

- taking advantage of cash it needs to deploy

- making new investments in areas NVidia wants to shape

- making new customers that continue to buy Nvidia GPUs, especially if they're successful

Some of these ventures may fail, but it's better than distributing dividends or issuing stock buybacks if you believe this technology will be useful in the future.

Companies doing this purely off of equity, stock valuation, and product/services agreements are even smarter as they're using pure hype to fund strategy.

hypeatei
29 days ago
Cooking your books and calling it a "triple win" is certainly interesting. Nokia just diluted their shares in hopes that AI hype keeps the price pumped up. They do keep the $1B so I guess we'll see what they do with it (other than buying NVDA GPUs, of course)
adgjlsfhk1
29 days ago
The problem comes if any of these companies aren't successful with their AI deployments. NVidia is essentially trying to sell GPUs in exchange for stock, but that means if the stock prices of those companies go down, then Nvidia will have payed $1B for the privilege of giving GPUs away below cost.
f4uCL9dNSnQm
29 days ago
1 reply
I always forget that Nokia bought out Siemens part of "Nokia Siemens Networks" and it is now just "Nokia networks".
pavlov
29 days ago
And they also bought Alcatel-Lucent.

Nokia today is sort of “everybody who was making networks in Europe and North America except Ericsson”.

dustbunny
29 days ago
6 replies
I think the US Gov probably "incentizied" Nvidias stake in Intel, and I wonder if they did here as well.

It's like "if your going to sell chips to China, you have to spend some of the money funding non-Chinese tech".

Nokia's capabilities to deliver 5G networks is a direct competitor to Huawei, right?

Is Nvidia functionally an strategic hedge fund of the US Government? Would this fall under Jeffrey Sach's realm?

lizardking
29 days ago
1 reply
Do you mean David Sacks, the AI czar?
dustbunny
29 days ago
Yes, sorry
amoshi
29 days ago
1 reply
>I think the US Gov probably "incentizied" Nvidias stake in Intel, and I wonder if they did here as well.

They definitely did, Intel existing is probably an issue of national security at this point, if Intel fell then there'd be the risk of some other nation's company being part of the duopoly.

netdevphoenix
29 days ago
2 replies
> They definitely did, Intel existing is probably an issue of national security at this point, if Intel fell then there'd be the risk of some other nation's company being part of the duopoly.

Mind elaborating? Who are the players in the duopoly?

KK7NIL
29 days ago
2 replies
Presumably referring to the logic foundry business where TSMC is the monopoly power and Intel, Samsung and SMIC are looking to turn it into a duopoly.
whaleofatw2022
29 days ago
1 reply
Let's not forget GloFo although they are more interested in bulk at this point.mm
KK7NIL
29 days ago
Global Foundries sent their EUV machine back (and paid a fat restocking fee to do it), they've stopped trying to compete at the leading edge of logic processes.

SMIC has a DUV multi-patterning 7 nm node which is already economically uncompetitive with EUV 7 nm nodes (except for PRC subsidies) and the economics of DUV only get worse further down, but at least they're trying and will certainly be the first client to use the Chinese EUV machines, whenever those come online.

tremon
29 days ago
Or they could be referring to the Wintel monopoly (Windows+Intel), or the x86 duopoly (Intel+AMD), or the FPGA duopoly (Altera=>Intel + Xilinx=>AMD)...
JAlexoid
29 days ago
1 reply
We currently have an all American oligopoly on the CPU market - Intel, AMD, Apple(ARM) and Qualcomm(ARM).

There's hardly any non-American CPU designers out there

overfeed
29 days ago
1 reply
I'm not sure why Arm is in parenthesis twice, when it's a full-blown, non-American CPU designer on whose coat-tails Apple and Qualcomm have been riding.

Risc-V moved HQs to be a non-American CPU designer, but perhaps you don't find them credible (yet).

JAlexoid
23 days ago
Apple and Qualcomm only use ARM ISA at this point.

And no, Apple and Qualcomm are the standard setters in ARM these days. Should they drop ARM for something else... ARM will be on the same trajectory where MIPS ended up.

RISC-V is just an ISA standard, the standard body is not a CPU designer in any shape or form.

rzerowan
29 days ago
1 reply
Not a direct competitor, they are at a No3 slot behind Ericsson with a small global footprintmainly concentrated in NorthAmerica and some EU markets. However most of the 5G/5G+ patents are Huawei owned and FRAND so in any case the entiti in the drivers seat is H , thas why even the whole OpenRAN project didnt get far. Most likely like you surmiseits a geo-political hedge play.
addei
29 days ago
1 reply
Correct if I am wrong, but it is also noted that most essential 5G related patents are held by trio of Qualcomm, Ericsson and Nokia.
rzerowan
29 days ago
1 reply
Yep the big three plus Huawei with a bit of an edge on them with te standard essential patent , that they collaborate in a pool with.Although in the matter of mobile modems/radios Qualcomm has an edge over all the others - not so much in the backend/longhaul telco space. Additionally if i recall most of the 6G stuff is being pushed by Huawei since most of it rests on the current 5G/5G+ work.
Wheaties466
29 days ago
1 reply
I get that they are now involved and contribute to 5g. But its pretty shameful how huawei had acquired the ability to do so.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Concerns_over_Chinese_involvem...

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-07-01/did-china...

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/02/13/us-charges-huawei-w...

throw32894833
28 days ago
These are articles are basically all speculation with no solid evidence.

Nortel was dying way before Huawei got involved.

nsteel
28 days ago
> I wonder if they did here as well

Interesting. Trump and the Finnish President meet a few weeks ago and explicitly discussed Nokia: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1XmnKjx3LYw

zitterbewegung
29 days ago
Yes, worked there and can confirm Nokia (previously known as Alcatel Lucent) is Cellphone infastructure.
re-thc
29 days ago
> I think the US Gov probably "incentizied" Nvidias stake in Intel, and I wonder if they did here as well.

If you wanted something in the x86 space it was either Intel or AMD. AMD is a direct competitor. If I was Nvidia I'd have done something about Intel. At least stop them from crashing further.

bgwalter
29 days ago
7 replies
Microsoft (Elop and Ballmer) ruined Nokia's cell phone line that led to massive layoffs.

Let's see if this investment leads to the final elimination of an EU tech company. Why does Finland permit this?

linhns
29 days ago
1 reply
Nokia has been teetering on the edge for a period, so they would welcome such an investment.
foobarian
29 days ago
Nokia has been at the edge of the abyss for a period, and then they made a giant leap forward /s
phatfish
29 days ago
2 replies
Nokia never executed on a touch screen OS. If i remember their final attempt with a Linux based OS was considered "good", but it was too little, too late. It was already over when they were scooped up by Microsoft, who were desperate themselves.

Pretty sure Nokia was glad to offload the handset business so they could feed money into markets they were still competitive in.

pjmlp
29 days ago
1 reply
Yes they did, a few Symbian models used touch, as did original Maemo device that only did wlan initially.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_7710

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia_770_Internet_Tablet

ptx
29 days ago
2 replies
All the Symbian devices used resistive touch screens, though, didn't they? E.g. the Sony Ericsson Vivaz. So the user experience was not quite the same as with capacitive touch.
ZuLuuuuuu
29 days ago
1 reply
No, there were quite a few Symbian models which used capacitive touch, combined with a modern Qt based Symbian OS. Check out "Symbian Belle" and the phone models released with that OS version. I loved my Nokia 603 :)

But I think they only released such models with Symbian for a couple of years, before switching to Meego and then later Windows Mobile OS.

pjmlp
29 days ago
They were in parallel, due to the whole Symbian vs Linux politics at Nokia between teams, both platforms got ramped down to Windows Phone 7 introduction and burning platforms memo.

The N900 was released more for a question of honour than anything.

pjmlp
29 days ago
It is still touch, and yes you could use finger nails as well on those models.

However you have not read the links, not all models were alike.

> The Nokia 7710 is a mobile phone developed by Nokia and announced on 2 November 2004.[1] It was the first Nokia device with a touchscreen

Geee
29 days ago
That isn't really true. The N9 was definitely ahead of it's time with a buttonless gesture based UI similar to the modern iPhone.
triceratops
29 days ago
2 replies
To be fair Nokia, like Blackberry, was effed the moment iPhone launched. Elop hastened the decline but it was coming regardless.
Insanity
29 days ago
1 reply
It's not quite the same, BlackBerry was mostly a 'phone' company and not a 'full telecom' company, in terms of hardware the produced. Nokia has other products that are more b2b than b2c.
triceratops
29 days ago
Nokia has existed for over a hundred years. The success of its phones made it a major name and a ton of money in the early 2000s. Its other lines of business have continued to operate quietly. But it's no longer the force it was.
distances
29 days ago
It wasn't iPhone that doomed Nokia, it was Android. All of the sudden all Nokia's competitors could ship fairly good touch screen phones, while previously Nokia had a virtual monopoly on advanced mobile operating systems (barring BlackBerry in the US).

Granted, it was going to happen anyway, probably through Microsoft if Google hadn't commoditized that market first.

chollida1
29 days ago
2 replies
Microsoft did no such thing. Nokia is very directly responsible for its own cell phone failings.

This line of thought really needs to die.

The Nokia board hired Elop from Microsoft because they wanted to bet the company on the Microsoft phone, full stop.

If you want to assign blame, then its on Nokia for wanting to pursue that strategy.

nsonha
29 days ago
1 reply
yes Nokia had years to come up with a better OS and they didn't. Even Samsung failed at this endeavor years later.
nicce
29 days ago
1 reply
They had MeeGo (Qt/Linux). For some reason they thought that not worth it to continue. Let's take Windows!
nsonha
28 days ago
1 reply
I've always asumed it wasn't a good enough OS just from the consumer news articles I read, was a freshman at the time. What was technically remarkable about it?
nicce
27 days ago
It was a direct competitor for Android at that time. GUI was really nice. I don't think it was essentially worse than Android. There was the potential.

https://www.reddit.com/r/linuxmasterrace/comments/31z13e/is_...

http://www.eedailynews.com/2010/05/android-vs-meego-two-appr...

pjmlp
29 days ago
As someone that was an employee at the time, I am also fed up with the anti-Microsoft narrative.

Also there are some errors there, Windows Phone only became an alternative after the burning platform memo, that wasn't at all well received neither internally, nor by the 3rd party devs that had just started to migrate their Symbian tooling yet again, this time to Qt + PIPS + Carbide.

The biggest blame with the board, as revealed on the Finish press, was the bonus clause on Elop contract to sell Nokia Mobile business.

rhetocj23
29 days ago
1 reply
MSFT accelerated the invetiable.

There was just no way Nokia could match Apple on the OS who spent years prior to the idea of a smartphone making it a good match for the hardware of the time. And MSFT deservedly got punished for not investing in creating a better OS and Apple deservedly rewarded for doing so.

tgma
29 days ago
They may never have had the chance to beat Apple but they could certainly have bet on Android instead of Windows Phone and today they probably would have been in a different place like Samsung.
iberator
29 days ago
1 reply
NOKIA IS NOT PHONE COMPANY. Never have been. They produce ayt of telecom stuff. Nokia was never ruined.
bgwalter
29 days ago
1 reply
You are probably trolling, but if you cannot read Wikipedia yourself:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nokia

"In 1998 alone, the company had sales revenue of $20 billion, making $2.6 billion profit. By 2000, Nokia employed over 55,000 people and had a market share of 30% in the mobile phone market, almost twice as large as its nearest competitor, Motorola."

The mobile phone business was ruined (perhaps they should have used Android), therefore caution about new foreign influence is warranted.

iberator
28 days ago
You don't understand: phones were just small part of their business. They are stull tier 1 teleco stuff provider worldwide (gsm, umts, ltr, 5g, core, rrus and bbus etc.)
jampekka
29 days ago
Nokia's market cap is over $40B, so $1B is not really Microsoft level coup. At least yet.
pavlov
29 days ago
7 replies
Nokia today is the combination of the network businesses of Nokia, Siemens, Alcatel and Lucent.

They have substantial operations in North America. T-Mobile uses primarily their hardware. Nokia still operates Bell Labs which came originally from AT&T via Lucent.

As the other global options for network hardware are Ericsson, Samsung and Huawei, Nokia is the closest to a “Made in USA” solution. Its HQ is in Finland but at least it’s a NATO country now.

So they’re more important to US infrastructure than might appear at first glance.

Imustaskforhelp
29 days ago
1 reply
Ericsson is swedish Samsung is south korean I can agree that Huawei is chinese so that's a bad choice

But why is Ericsson(swedish), Samsung(south korean) not considered made in US in the sense that atleast south korea has strong relations with america iirc and also I just recently checked and it seems that sweden has also become a part of nato. So some of these can be just as good.

Although I still agree that Nokia might be important in general but I just wanted to point/question it out I suppose.

nine_k
29 days ago
UPDATE: the production facilities seem to be closed; only office buildings remain somewhere.

Per Wikipedia [1], Lucent's factories and offices are^W were situated in places like Murray Hill and Mount Olive, NJ, North Andover, MA, Reading, PA, and a bunch of other places in the US.

I think it makes^W made Nokia, which owns Lucent properties, "more US" than, say Ericsson and Samsung, until these facilities were closed.

[1]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lucent_Technologies#Divisions

shrubble
29 days ago
1 reply
A large number of telecom companies have Alcatel routers like the 7750 . My personal thought was that the control plane OS was likely based on Plan9, though I never had access to any source code to verify that.
jesterx
29 days ago
its based on TiMetra's TiMOS, a router startup alcatel acquired around 2013
Cyph0n
29 days ago
2 replies
Why are you forgetting about Cisco, Juniper (now HPE), and Arista - all of which are US companies?

Also, why is Nokia closer to the US than Ericsson?

mixdup
29 days ago
2 replies
Cisco, Juniper, and Arista make carrier hardware like cell phone radios and controllers and traditional telephone network switches?

While there's probably a little overlap in all of their product lines with Nokia (I mean Nokia makes simple ethernet switches so that carriers can buy all their gear from one vendor), most of those companies don't really compete in the same markets as Nokia

Cisco isn't selling into T-Mobile and AT&T's customer networks. Nokia isn't selling into JPMorgan's or Walmart's IP networks

pavelstoev
29 days ago
1 reply
Nokia also makes complex backbone carrier-grade network switches based on the Intellectual Property portfolio they acquired from Nortel.
mixdup
29 days ago
1 reply
That kind of stuff is the closest that they would come to compete with the others cited. They're all trying to get into datacenter gear, but Cisco specifically has gotten out of various levels of service provider network gear (they sold off all their cable network stuff, for example) which is where Nokia, Ericsson, etc all make their bread and butter
Cyph0n
29 days ago
Cisco is still in the SP networking space, but they’ve been pushing heavily into datacenter and core routers generally (vs. edge which are more common in SP networks).

Granted, I only worked as a lowly dev in the Cisco SP routing team, and I haven’t been keeping up to speed with their work.

Cyph0n
29 days ago
> As the other global options for network hardware

Hence my comment :)

Nokia does in fact compete with Cisco and the others, but less so than in the past.

stronglikedan
29 days ago
1 reply
Because context is important and we're discussing Nokia and/or Nvidia in this particular thread.
Cyph0n
29 days ago
Re-read the comment I replied to. I wasn’t the one who brought up how Nokia is the closest company to the US for network hardware.
phplovesong
29 days ago
4 replies
What do you imply with "atleast its a nato country"? Its not like finland have ever been anti-west, if this was your point. Nato alone does not imply pro-west (the US/trump leadership being the prime example)
decimalenough
29 days ago
1 reply
During the Cold War, Finland was officially neutral, but for pragmatic reasons leaned heavily towards the Soviets in foreign policy. There's even a word for this:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Finlandization

vga42
29 days ago
That's not the whole story. Excluding the pro-Soviet fringes, Finland always wanted to be free of Russia. When Soviet Union fell, Finland moved significantly to the west and also started inching towards NATO.

But only the real NATO membership significantly diminished the country risk that foreign investors correctly perceived in Finland.

mft_
29 days ago
1 reply
I think the context is clear from what was written:

> As the other global options for network hardware are Ericsson, Samsung and Huawei, Nokia is the closest to a “Made in USA” solution. Its HQ is in Finland but at least it’s a NATO country now.

i.e. with the current US administration, a "Made in USA" solution to critical infrasctructure would likely be seen as ideal; and viewed through this lens, when the other options come from Sweden, Finland, South Korea, and China, Finland is probably the best option.

I didn't read any implied criticism of Finland.

0dayz
29 days ago
1 reply
How is Sweden worse than Finland? Considering they both are neighbors and have been a neutral country? (technically Sweden has been for longer).
originalvichy
29 days ago
>How is Sweden worse than Finland?

As a Finn, rather than bore you with a 2846 bullet point list, I'd say that technologically not a lot, but we do have a lot more to lose, so it is easier to bargain with our industry compared to Sweden's. Our population is not always big enough to compete head-to-head with some sectors Sweden is also a part of.

Strom
29 days ago
It's not about being anti-west, it's about the likelyhood of being invaded.
vga42
29 days ago
It's of course obvious to everyone now that there has been no reason to trust Russia. US investors have been resourceful enough to realize that investing in Finland carried a significant country risk due to Russia, even in times of relative peace.

That risk is lesser now thanks to NATO.

nabla9
29 days ago
1 reply
Nokia expanded into data center networks. Nokia sells optical data center interconnects.

They also plan to provide AI services in the Edge, that's why Nvidia invested.

throwaway290
29 days ago
1 reply
are you saying nvidia invests into its customer so that the customer will buy more from nvidia?

sounds totally not a bubble.

nabla9
29 days ago
Nvidia is Nokia customer in data center.

AI-RAN is partnership where Nvidia and Nokia will sell to telecoms and private 5G/6G networks.

pjmlp
29 days ago
Unless they bought back Siemens into NSN, I think not.

I was part of the Nokia => NSN transition, and saw that S change back from Siemens into Solutions, with the money they got back from selling Nokia Mobile to Microsoft.

moralestapia
29 days ago
>Nokia, Siemens, Alcatel and Lucent

That's an amazing trove of IP!

ChrisArchitect
29 days ago
1 reply
Quietly supplying telecom equipment all this time, it really isn't the Nokia most know. Crazy that Nokia is still even a thing. Who noticed that logo had even changed (two years ago in 2023).
foobarian
29 days ago
Honestly, I feel like this is what Nokia always was, and why they fell behind in consumer tech
_trampeltier
29 days ago
1 reply
Based on the stock price, some people knew it already a week ago :-)
nsteel
28 days ago
You mean, a week ago when they announced their better than predicted Q3 earnings...?
nasmorn
29 days ago
5 replies
The stock of NVIDIA can buy the 230 smallest S&P 500 companies. Which are still quite big companies. I recently learned this fact and I think it is pretty wild.
incognito124
29 days ago
1 reply
Each of them separately, or all of them together?
tverbeure
29 days ago
If it were separately, they’d be able to buy 499 of S&P 500 companies…
bazmattaz
29 days ago
2 replies
Do you mean their market cap? Sure but that doesn’t equal their profits or cash reserves which are considerably less so NVIDIA couldn’t buy the 230 companies even if I wanted to
hshdhdhehd
29 days ago
1 reply
They could buy with stock. They can do this limitless times each time an effective merger.

The SP500 could merge into one company, regulation permitting.

flakeoil
29 days ago
They can not, as Nvidia owns very little of its own stock.

It's the owners of the Nvidia stock who potentially could trade their Nvidia stocks for the other 230 companies stocks. But then they have no Nvidia stocks anymore, on the other hand.

pinkmuffinere
29 days ago
That’s a good point, which immediately makes me curious — how many of the smallest sp500 companies could nvidia outright purchase (or obtain a majority stake in)? It’s just a curiosity, not trying to demand an answer. I might look at it tomorrow if I have time
Theodores
29 days ago
2 replies
In year 2000, Nokia had a market cap of around $100 billion and Nvidia had a market cap of around $2 to 4 billion.

Nvidia just made graphics cards, at a time when games were still being written for MS-DOS. Nobody was to imagine the real money to be made from repurposing these graphics cards for crypto and now this AI 'application'.

rhubarbtree
29 days ago
Tbf only 6 years after that Jensen was already betting on GPGPU
hshdhdhehd
29 days ago
And even the games market.
outside1234
29 days ago
This is also why them collapsing will take out the US stock market
TheAlchemist
29 days ago
Its' getting more crazy by the day. Today NVidia added >300B USD in market cap. That's enough more than the valuation of Intel for example. Or more than Toyota. That 1B USD investement was money well spent !
mgh2
29 days ago
3 replies
What exactly is "AI-RAN"?
lovelearning
29 days ago
1 reply
The radio access network (RAN) is all the RF part of a mobile network: towers, base stations, the signals between our phones and the towers, phone-to-satellite comms (non-terrestrial network or NTN).

AI-RAN uses AI/ML for adaptive behaviors and optimizations in all these links.

For example, fine-grained RF and modulation details, called the channel state information (CSI), is constantly being exchanged between a phone and a base station. The volume of information creates transmission latencies. Using autoencoder models, this information can be semantically compressed to reduce its volume and decoded with high fidelity on the other side.

That's just one example. In the upcoming 6G, RAN will be "AI-native", using AI/ML everywhere. The standards may require AI accelerator chips in most base stations, NTN satellites, phones, and other elements.

donkeyboy
29 days ago
1 reply
Thank you, the future is awesome!
mgh2
28 days ago
So it is still just a concept being developed? It might or might not work?
farco12
29 days ago
It's the name given to an initiative by telco vendors like Nokia and Ericson to explore using NVIDIA GPUs to supply the core compute needs of next generation Radio Access Networks (RAN).

It's a potential 6G architecture.

jimmySixDOF
29 days ago
AI-RAN is the strategic play here because it's unknown (outside of research lab NDAs ?) what potential real-time physical AI/ML implementation will have on the future of edge processing like organizing the low-layer 6G spectrum contention mechanisms. It's a near certainty that custom AI accelerators are a part of every radio base station in the near future so this is not cash investment but a new product line Joint Venture similar to the Intel story.
protocolture
29 days ago
1 reply
Diversify before the AI money dries up.
pfannkuchen
29 days ago
AI hardware really is the new oil, this sort of thing reminds me of the saudis.
nrmitchi
29 days ago
3 replies
Nvidia seems to be operating more like a sovereign wealth fund than a traditional business. They have a very-in-demand product, that is not likely to last forever, and is getting their fingers in as many pies as possible with the money and influence while they have it.
stanislavb
29 days ago
2 replies
Which is not not smart.

edit: highlight: "not not". I think it's very smart.

kgc
29 days ago
2 replies
Why is it not smart?
mikestorrent
29 days ago
There were two nots
chasil
29 days ago
The classical answer would be RCA, who famously bought Carpetland, Banquet Foods, and Hertz car rental, and was bequeathed the moniker "Rugs, Chickens, and Automobiles" by the investment community.

Buying a stake in Nokia is admittedly different than taking it over and managing it, but the danger there is very clear. Distracted management that strays away from core competence can easily kill the golden goose driving revenue.

The contrarian view is that Berkshire Hathaway is able to hold an array of successful manufacturing and service businesses (Kirby vacuum cleaners, Dairy Queen, Clayton Homes, and the prominent Sees Candy) without losing management control of GEICO and their other insurance holdings.

Hopefully, Nvidia sees the example of RCA and Gulf Western, and will not lose focus on their core competence.

RCA famously birthed the semiconductor industry in Taiwan. I think that focused trade regulation would prevent a repeat of that event in modern times.

Edit: It appears that RCA bought Coronet Carpets, not Carpetland.

byyoung3
29 days ago
you calling nvidia dumb not smart
dtagames
29 days ago
2 replies
Perhaps not forever but GPUs for AI is likely to be a very solid and profitable business for a long time. CPUs made plenty of money for their makers in that era.
adastra22
29 days ago
3 replies
AI, while undeniably powerful and transformative, is in the midst of the biggest, most insane tech bubble we have ever seen. And nearly all of that money is ending up, directly or indirectly, in GPU data centers. And NVIDIA is the largest cost (profit maker) there.

When that investment firehouse gets turned off, the AI providers will stop building new data centers. Likely for some years. That revenue stream for NVIDIA will go to zero so fast…

The unknown, as with any bubble, is timing.

chii
29 days ago
1 reply
> most insane tech bubble we have ever seen.

the current "bubble" hasn't surpassed the dot-com boom yet.

adastra22
29 days ago
1 reply
The total aggregate loss of value from top to bottom of the dotcom crash was about $5 trillion. That’s the current market cap of NVIDIA alone, to say nothing of other AI companies. So yeah, it has.
chii
29 days ago
2 replies
that number back in 2000 is about $9.7 trillion adjusted for inflation. You can't merely just compare the numbers at that time with a number today. It's meaningless.

You have to compare forward earnings to share-price ratios.

adastra22
29 days ago
1 reply
I think you missed that I'm comparing a single company to the entire market crash in 2000.

What about OpenAI, Anthropic, xAI and the other foundation labs that have collectively raised trillions?

What Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta, which would likely survive but maybe lose up to a trillion each in valuation?

What about the very long tail of venture-backed AI companies that will go bust? You might complain that the dotcom number was just public companies, but back in 2000 everything was a public company. A company with thousands of high-earning employees going bust matters to the greater economy whether or not it is Nasdaq listed or not.

If a single company represents the entire dollar amount of the dotcom bust, or half when inflation-adjusted, and that valuation is entirely predicated on that growth continuing at historically unprecedented rates.. yeah we're in a bubble, and the damage when it bursts is going to be big.

That was the point I was making, and I fail to see how forward earnings to share-price ratios has any relevance here. The whole point of a bubble popping is that the market suddenly finds out those forward revenues were a mirage, a house of cards, and are very much made up.

chii
29 days ago
1 reply
> fail to see how forward earnings to share-price ratios has any relevance here.

the relevance is that these earnings expectations are lower than when the dotcom bubble happened.

The fact that a single company can have a market cap today that is greater than the losses from the dotcom bust is irrelevant. We have more wealth today than back in 2000, and these market caps reflect that.

WastedCucumber
29 days ago
1 reply
>the relevance is that these earnings expectations are lower than when the dotcom bubble happened.

[citation needed]

chii
29 days ago
cant find the forward earnings chart, but PE is close proximation

https://www.macrotrends.net/2577/sp-500-pe-ratio-price-to-ea...

The dotcom bubble peaked at around 46, while we are currently at 30. Will it grow? Who knows. But the bubble certainly isn't as big as claimed by the grandparent comment.

Libidinalecon
28 days ago
You also can't just leave out the bond market.The dotcom bubble sat on top of the 10 year bond at 5%. The US had a balanced budget and 10X less debt than now. It was the peak of the unipolar moment. Part of the AI bubble is the lack of safe investments to act as a flight to safety. I just don't think they are really comparable. The AI bubble could certainly be more destructive given the circumstances and concentration when it pops, even if not bigger. The other main difference is we actually had the internet in place. So much of what is fueling the AI bubble doesn't even exist.
dtagames
29 days ago
3 replies
Demand for chips has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero." Chips are a critical part of the tech business for the foreseeable future, regardless of what happens with AI or any other use case for them. They're raw material for computing, and computing use only goes up.
fun444555
29 days ago
2 replies
Man, I feel old. I remember feeling this way during dot-com bubble. The few months of unemployment grounded me. Anyway, better positioned this time. History is a good teacher.
signatoremo
29 days ago
Feeling which way? Demand for chips are much higher than it was at the peak of the dot-com bubble. That was a painful period, but only a blip in the history. Everything considered “hype” back then has become reality, at a scale that was beyond any dot-com era expectation.
mikkupikku
29 days ago
This time the bubble has companies firing tens of thousands of employees because they think AI has made then redundant. When the bubble popped the first time, the internet thing stuck around and was a permanent change, popping the bubble wasn't a return to the status quo. I wonder how it will work out this time.
vel0city
29 days ago
1 reply
Demand for networking equipment has only increased since their invention and never gone down, much less "to zero".

I'm sure that same phrase was echoed at Nortel and more offices in the 90s.

It's all hot stuff until you have a few billion dollars worth of inventory manufactured that you can barely give away for a million dollars one day. Sure it's not zero, but you're still pretty fucked in the end.

adastra22
29 days ago
1 reply
NVIDIA doesn’t separate their networking revenue, but at time of acquisition mellanox had less than a billion dollars on sales. Less a half a percent of NVIDIA’s current data center sales. That has undoubtedly grown, but I would be surprised if the networking share of their data center business was more than a rounding error. Keep in mind they sell GPUs for $50k, 2-8GPUs per box, and even a state of the art Infiniband card to put in that machine is only a few thousand bucks.
DSingularity
29 days ago
1 reply
You are missing his point.
adastra22
29 days ago
I think I replied to the wrong comment, thank you.
adastra22
29 days ago
NVIDIA growth in data center sales the last 4 years: 2022: from $6.7 billion +58.5% to $10.61 billion; 2023: +41.4% to $15.01 billion; 2024: +216.7% to $47.53 billion; 2025: +142.4% to $115.19 billion

NVIDIA isn’t a startup. It isn’t disrupting a market. It is the ESTABLISHMENT. Low double-digit growth numbers for market leader in established industries would be, by itself tremendously remarkable. Apple was 6% last year, for example. That’s doing great.

NVIDIA grew 142% this year and 217% the year before. That’s… that’s f%#£ing unbelievable is what that is.

The entire consumer market for NVIDIA is less than 10% of their data center market. NVIDIA is a ln AI company with a side hustle in computer graphics. Oh and a nontrivial amount of that is researchers and small companies buying consumer chips for non-LLM AI training and inference, so real numbers are even smaller.

“Zero”, while not mathematically accurate, is indistinguishable here. Elimination of most of the data center sales would immediately move market valuations by trillions of dollars.

positron26
29 days ago
Maybe the most insane tech bubble you've seen. We'll have to wait and see how the superbowl goes.
shortrounddev2
29 days ago
AI is a bubble and will pop soon, theres no way even 80% of the spending has yielded the returns they were looking for. Nvidia cards will lower in demand though probably the bubble will be a net gain for nvidia over the preceding 4 or 5 years, though it will take them a while to regain their peak market cap
kumarvvr
29 days ago
5 replies
As it seems now, they are into producing silicon that does massive parallel calculations, and variants on it thereof.

To me, that seems to be a requirement for the computing industry for a long time.

And, they seemed to have amassed enough capital to comfortably pivot to the next great thing that requires similar calculations.

I think this is their super power.

The next logical step would be to get into CPUs, to become a fully integrated computing solutions provider.

chemotaxis
29 days ago
1 reply
> To me, that seems to be a requirement for the computing industry for a long time.

Sure, but they have a market cap of 5 trillion. It's about 10x that of AMD, which also sells similar silicon (and isn't in any distress). It's more than Apple, Google, and Microsoft - and these companies historically found ways to make more money than the vendors they buy chips from.

The problem isn't that Nvidia doesn't have good fundamentals or good products, it's that the market is expecting miracles.

In the case of Nvidia, the funny thing is that their high valuations started not with AI, but with cryptocurrencies. Just never really came down - they coasted from a silly hype cycle to a more substantive one. Ten years ago, NVDA wasn't an interesting stock at all.

cluckindan
29 days ago
1 reply
Stock values go up when people buying stocks expect them to go up.

Stock values go down when people holding stocks expect them to go down.

mnky9800n
29 days ago
3 replies
Why would you hold a stock if you think it should go down? If you think the stock is valuable but in the near term should go down, why not sell and then buy in increments as it goes down?
cluckindan
29 days ago
1 reply
Indeed. Since most stock are mostly held by institutional investors, prices are heavily guided by sentiment.

Except when they aren’t, see GameStop and Beyond Meat.

simondotau
29 days ago
Prices are heavily guided by sentiment. Nobody said sentiment HAS to be tied to the entity's fundamentals. GameStop stock moved due to sentiment external to the entity itself.
hvb2
29 days ago
Because not everyone is in it for the short term.

Tax reasons might be one as well, long term capital gains are taxed less.

There are few investors that can spend the time it takes to be active like that.

Most people buying individual stocks are better of buying ETFs anyway.

In the end it's a choice on what to spend your time on.

kuratkull
29 days ago
Because stocks have a tendency to go up even when they should be going down. And when you decide that it probably isn't going down, it will go down. Timing the market isn't a reliable way of wealth generation. Long term investing is.
positron26
29 days ago
2 replies
The problem is not demand going away. No margin in a late stage company goes unassailed for long. Intel has nothing to lose. AMD has everything to gain. Untold other players are finding oxygen in various places. Nvidia is smart to use their spotlight as long as it lasts, but in their pitch, they're saying, "this will put you ahead," not "this will last forever."
rhubarbtree
29 days ago
1 reply
Google?
positron26
28 days ago
90% search is not 90% ad revenue. If you want to compete with Google, it's easier to make a different kind of popular platform and then sell ads than to compete head-to-head for traffic on search only to... sell ads.
FinnKuhn
29 days ago
1 reply
> The problem is not demand going away.

The problem for Nvidia is when demand doesn't continue to increase as much as expected.

positron26
28 days ago
Unless they have managed to hide a lot of leverage and debt (not investment), that's a problem for their shareholders if they have priced in future growth.

To avoid looping this conversation for the next 2-3 years, we need to get to higher PEs to match the dot com bubble. It's just hard to have a long bubble that collapses without debt and leverage. You need something that compels the market to correct or else the long bubble just stays long. Suddenly I understand why shorting is essential in breaking the back of long bubbles and stabilizing market dynamics.

ayewo
29 days ago
> The next logical step would be to get into CPUs, to become a fully integrated computing solutions provider.

They already tried it 5 years ago [1][2] but it was promptly blocked by regulators.

[1]: https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-to-acquire-arm-for...

[2]: HN discussion https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24464807

super256
29 days ago
Nvidia is already doing that under MGX. They also offer their Grace CPUs on that platform.
Tuna-Fish
29 days ago
Yes, but their moat is not unassailable. If/when the market for massive parallel computations becomes truly competitive, the combined market cap of all companies in it will likely be smaller than what NVidia currently has. NV margins are insane, and are only possible because they have an effective monopoly.
cinntaile
29 days ago
Why? I don't get what's in it for Nvidia or Nokia?

AI on IoT devices?

baal80spam
29 days ago
ITT: Bubblers in full force!
hypeatei
29 days ago
The bubble burst is going to be devastating for these smaller companies caught up in the frenzy. I'm staying invested in companies like Alphabet that are taking part in the race but offer more than just AI hopium.
klaussilveira
29 days ago
Finally. NOK to the moon. Now do BB.
ngcc_hk
29 days ago
Given 5g patent mostly h, usa has missed the boat. Somehow has to find its way back or be dominated. Not necessarily can build an empire or even a duopoly… but at least stay in the game like Intel. Understandable from usa point of view.
iszomer
29 days ago
That growing narrative regarding all these AI-centric companies "funding each other" is beginning to look a lot like Attrition.org's (former) sexchart..
randomname4325
29 days ago
Does this signal the a big market for AI processing is at the edge?

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