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  1. Home
  2. /Story
  3. /China reaches energy milestone by "breeding" uranium from thorium
  1. Home
  2. /Story
  3. /China reaches energy milestone by "breeding" uranium from thorium
Nov 22, 2025 at 12:49 PM EST

China reaches energy milestone by "breeding" uranium from thorium

surprisetalk
178 points
122 comments

Mood

informative

Sentiment

positive

Category

news

Key topics

Nuclear Energy

Thorium

Uranium

Energy Independence

China

https://archive.is/DQpXM

https://www.stdaily.com/web/English/2025-11/17/content_43298...

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    Nov 24, 2025 at 1:45 AM EST

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Discussion (122 comments)
Showing 160 comments
T-A
1d ago
2 replies
A better explanation of the significance:

https://www.stdaily.com/web/English/2025-11/17/content_43298...

cubefox
1d ago
1 reply
> Now, the research team is conducting systematic studies on the key scientific issues related to adding thorium, and aims to completethe construction of a 100-megawatt TMSR demonstration project, and begin operation by 2035.

For comparison: A commercial nuclear power plant is 1 gigawatt, a 10x difference. I assume this would be the next step.

allenrb
1d ago
The typical 1 gigawatt rating for a nuclear power reactor is measuring electrical output. Given the various inefficiencies, the actual reactor output (as heat) is something like 3x that amount. Whereas a research reactor will be quoted as thermal output.

That to say, a typical commercial reactor might be 30x the power of a 100 MW research device.

dang
1d ago
Thanks! We've put that link in the toptext as well.
jonplackett
1d ago
5 replies
I think I read recently that this was a US idea that was abandoned that China took up and made it work. Is that accurate?
jbverschoor
1d ago
2 replies
Well, fible energy is trying to do lots. Gates invested in MSTR (molten salt thorium reactor).

But regulation, while it has its purposes, stifles many things. At the same time time it’s not even doing what they were meant for.

There are a number of countries being run far better than the US or the EU

dmix
1d ago
1 reply
> There are a number of countries being run far better than the US or the EU

It will be funny if China is what convinces the US to be more open to free industry. Opposite day vs the 1970s

bilbo0s
1d ago
1 reply
To be fair, these advances are not being made in China due to "free industry". They have something of a command economy for their critical sectors. So it's unfair not to point out that it's easy to make advances if a nation as a whole points to a hill and says, "take that hill". Of course you can do it under those circumstances.

If it's just your company or some trifling consortium trying to develop nuclear energy advances in a "free industry" environment, the guy who is just slapping up windmills, [T Boone Pickens RIP], is just gonna mop the floor with you. There's just no way to compete on moonshots like that.

lunar-whitey
1d ago
China has many capital controls but generally supports industrial activity in the state interest; the US does the opposite.
hunterpayne
1d ago
1 reply
Gates invested in the traveling wave reactor which was a bust. Then he sold his entire investment in nuclear several years ago. He's very rich so perhaps he has other nuclear investments that I'm not aware of but none are in the MSTR space unless they are secret/private.
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
> none are in the MSTR space unless they are secret/private

TerraPower is not secret.

lunar-whitey
1d ago
4 replies
No country has seriously invested in the thorium fuel cycle because it cannot be used to create weapons. Unfortunately, the technology also began to look most promising as an energy source around the same time the Three Mile Island nuclear accident effectively ended all interest in nuclear energy in the United States.
lazide
1d ago
1 reply
Also, it’s only energy positive under some specific carefully managed conditions, and is a real pain to make work.

If you have easy access to uranium, you just use it directly instead.

hunterpayne
1d ago
1 reply
Depends on what you want out of your reactor. You want to make a synthetic fuel, Thorium not Uranium. You want a liquid fueled reactor (because its safer and proliferation resistant), Thorium not Uranium. You want 900C heat instead of 300C heat, Thorium not Uranium.

The fuel costs of a NPP are a tiny rounding error. If you want electricity and want to build it today, Uranium not Thorium. You are using arguments from 50 years ago when many incorrect assumptions about cost structure and fuel availability were used to make decisions.

lazide
1d ago
The cope is strong here. The only liquid fueled reactors with any operational experience got shut down because of corrosion issues causing major leaks.

The pros you mention are theoretical - because the cons came out in force when actually tried, and they’ve been tried many times by many different countries.

datadrivenangel
1d ago
1 reply
Thorium can be used to make weapons via the breeding cycle. It's much less convenient and straightforward than uranium/plutonium, but it is possible.
lunar-whitey
1d ago
1 reply
Theoretically, perhaps, but I don’t think anyone with a serious interest in weapons would pursue it. From a nonproliferation perspective, I’d guess the infrastructure necessary to remove contaminants from uranium bred through the thorium cycle would be costly and difficult to conceal.
datadrivenangel
1d ago
1 reply
Multiple countries have detonated nuclear bombs using U-233 derived from thorium reactors! [0] Practically I agree with you that thorium is proliferation resistant and if someone is bomb hungry they won't prioritize it, but if you want to set up the bomb and all you have is thorium... The infrastructure wouldn't necessarily be significantly larger or worse than conventional enrichment.

0 - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uranium-233

lunar-whitey
1d ago
Seems presence of U-232 is more manageable than I thought.
Moldoteck
21h ago
Weapons are irrelevant for power generation. No modern classic pwr was used to create weapons- because it's cheaper to have dedicated infra
retrac
1d ago
India has shown some of the most interest to date, due to their lack of domestic uranium reserves. But it's been slow going their fast breeder reactor plans were delayed by like two decades. But it is built and it was loaded with fuel last month [0]

The French interest in breeder reactors and nuclear reprocessing also originates from a similar concern about lack of domestic access to raw uranium. Though Super-phoenix [0] was a more traditional uranium -> plutonium approach and not thorium. They gave up because just using uranium is way, way cheaper than synthesizing your own fissile materials.

[0] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/indias-prototype...

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superph%C3%A9nix

tim333
1d ago
The US had a similar but not identical reactor in the 60s, the Molten-Salt Reactor Experiment https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Molten-Salt_Reactor_Experiment

It had uranium-233 from breeding from thorium in other reactors.

The main problem with these things is they seem very unprofitable. The US reactor ran from 1964 to 1969 and produced a small amount of power but is still running about $10m a year in decommissioning costs. You thing you can run these things a while and think it's over but:

>Sampling in 1994 revealed concentrations of uranium that created a potential for a nuclear criticality accident, as well as a potentially dangerous build-up of fluorine gas: the environment above the solidified salt was approximately one atmosphere of fluorine. The ensuing decontamination and decommissioning project was called "the most technically challenging"...

impossiblefork
1d ago
Historical experiments with alternative fuel cycles, not serious development attempts. A serious development attempt happened in India though.
T-A
1d ago
Yes: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power#Hi...
_trampeltier
1d ago
7 replies
This came up several times the last few weeks, but never stayed on the front for long. Also no comments.

I guess soon the west has to copy chinas tech.

pfdietz
1d ago
6 replies
Breeding is a technology looking for a business case.

It's more expensive than just using fresh uranium in current market conditions. It's a way from keeping future uranium shortages from making nuclear power more expensive; it's not a way to make nuclear cheaper than it currently is.

NewJazz
1d ago
2 replies
Emphasis on current market conditions. Relations with uranium mining countries and environmental opposition to uranium mining could shift conditions.
SirHumphrey
1d ago
2 replies
The truth is that nuclear power is not that financially attractive at the present and would the price of uranium rise enough that breeders would become economically viable most countries would just stop bothering with nuclear power altogether.
cpursley
1d ago
2 replies
> The truth is that nuclear power is not that financially attractive

Let me fix that for you: "The truth is that nuclear power is not that financially attractive in the bureaucratic high cost litigious Anglo-sphere". And that's pretty much all infrastructure these days, unfortunately.

dalyons
1d ago
1 reply
They’re not financially attractive in other parts of the world either. China, a zero litigation single party state, is building some but a tiny % compared to their renewable buildout
cpursley
1d ago
1 reply
They need a lot of energy from a variety of sources. China has 30 or so reactors under construction (half or so of all active projects).
dalyons
1d ago
1 reply
"China currently has 58 operable reactors with a total capacity of 56.9 GW. A further 30 reactors, with a total capacity of 34.4 GW are under construction" [1]

So, yes, but...

China installed 256GW of solar in the first 6 months of 2025 [2]. A full year estimate of ~350gw. So, the total of all nuclear under construction is 1/10th of the solar they installed in one year.

Don't get me wrong, its cool to see diversity of non fossil sources, glad they are building some, but its a niche in their overall energy buildout. And they can only build that small niche because they dont have to be market priced, its state subsidized.

[1] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/ten-new-reactors... [2] https://ember-energy.org/latest-updates/global-solar-install...

Hammershaft
1d ago
2 replies
Comparing nuclear reactor capacity to solar capacity is misleading because renewable capacity dramatically overstates actual generation. IIRC The capacity factor for solar ranges between %5-%25 of total capacity generated.
dalyons
1d ago
Yes yes, one of the usual reflexive context free points repeated every time solar comes up. Whatever the actual capacity factor is(5% is not a serious number ), I’m sure chinas energy planners know that, it’s hardly a gotcha. And still they’ve choose to build solar at a volume massively dwarfing nuclear

(Edit: cycomanic explained it much better and more patiently than me)

cycomanic
1d ago
That doesn't significantly change the argument. Most solar plants have capacity factors of around 20% (5% might apply to home systems, but not commerical), compared to nuclear which has around 80%. So a factor of 4. So numbers change a bit on the previous poster, China just installed 3x more solar in 1 year than all the nuclear under construction, or they essentially installed the same amout of solar in one year as all existing and under construction nuclear combined. And if we look at projections, next year they likely will install twice as much solar...

While China is often put up as the poster child for nuclear power, they are actually a great example of how nuclear is being overtaken by renewables. China's 2019 plan was that by 2035 nuclear would account for ~8% of generated electricity (up from ~5%). Since then percentage dropped to 4.5% (and the drop seems to be accelerating). Unless something dramatically changes nuclear will account for less than 4% (not the planned 8%) of generated electricity by 2035. All that is due to the raise of renewables (largely solar). I suspect we will not see China build close to those projected 200 GW and the percentage to be even lower, just due to the exponential growth in solar.

source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_China

culi
1d ago
1 reply
It's not the litigiousness that makes it expensive. France was producing nuclear power plants at a cost per watt that nearly matches modern China. In fact, the mind-numbing cost overruns seem unique to the US.

Here's a Nature article about it:

https://archive.ph/Tpe0j

Seems to me like it's more of a story of corruption than of over-regulation

dalyons
1d ago
france cant do it any more either. Flamanville was 12 years late and [1] 400% over budget. EPR2 is already delayed and over budget and they havent even started building yet!

UK cant do it either, see hinkley point c [2]

[1] https://www.nucnet.org/news/long-delayed-nuclear-plant-conne... [2] https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/articles/edf-announces-hi...

arcticbull
1d ago
1 reply
The cost of nuclear power is almost entirely capex and financing, not opex. Uranium input cost for nuclear power plants is 0.5c/kWh. With breeders you can divide that by about 100.

At least as of a couple years ago nuclear costs just a little more than solar plus storage and that’s not stopping anyone heh.

bigyabai
1d ago
Capex and financing is still an issue for many countries, and the opex is a non-zero commitment beyond just the fiscal portion. Most countries that pass-over nuclear energy are fairly justified in their decision. The status-quo is still not super psyched about nuclear proliferation.

There is room to change that, but the cards are very heavily stacked in China's favor. America's bad at the financing part, fickle when it comes to enforcement & supply chains, and ostensibly 2 days away from bailing on the IAEA itself. The proliferation-resistance of Thorium reactors gives China an export trump card that America will struggle to match.

culi
1d ago
China has more uranium reserves and less thorium reserves than the US though

Most thorium: India, Brazil, Australia, US, Turkey

Most uranium: Australia, Kazakhstan, Canada, Russia, Namibia

lunar-whitey
1d ago
1 reply
There is no business case for basic research, but if you stop basic research long enough you will have no business. The United States and its allies seem to have completely forgotten this.
HPsquared
1d ago
2 replies
It makes sense for big monopolies like Bell, or the CCP. The investment can be justified if the ones investing are confident they will be able to capture the value and not some competitor.
coliveira
1d ago
1 reply
No business sense for scientific research? You know you're completely destroying the argument for capitalism, right?
HPsquared
13h ago
I don't see how it follows. Anyway it's debatable if the current system with antitrust laws is true capitalism. One of those poorly-defined words that people argue over.
lunar-whitey
1d ago
Bell Labs also served to maintain positive perceptions of the monopoly. Unix was famously developed despite the knowledge that AT&T would not be able to offer it as an independent product.
adrian_b
1d ago
2 replies
They highlight less the advantages from breeding, than other advantages of the molten salt design, like not needing a lot of cooling water, which allows this reactor to operate in the Gobi desert, the possibility of replacing the fuel without halting the reactor and various safety features.
littlestymaar
1d ago
1 reply
Nuclear reactors don't need a particularly big amount of cooling water.

The thermodynamic cycle needs a cold source though, and it's most commonly water. This doesn't depend on the reactor design and this is equally as true of coal plants.

As long as you are making electricity out of a thermodynamic cycle, you need a heat source (be it a flame or a nuclear reaction) and a cold source.

adrian_b
23h ago
1 reply
As the reactor is operating in the Gobi desert and China claims that its main advantage for them is exactly this possibility of operating in the inland arid areas of the country, unlike their current reactors that must be installed only close to the sea, in the part of the country with abundant water, they must have a solution for the cold source that does not involve water.

Perhaps they use as a cold source the underground soil, though the soil thermal conductivity will limit the amount of power of the reactor. This reactor has a modest power, which could be explained by this constraint.

If the reactor is as safe as they claim, the moderate output power per reactor could be compensated by installing many such reactors.

littlestymaar
22h ago
> As the reactor is operating in the Gobi desert and China claims that its main advantage for them is exactly this possibility of operating in the inland arid areas of the country

This is mainly a feature of the reactor being small. If you don't have much heat to dissipate, even air cooling becomes feasible.

> unlike their current reactors that must be installed only close to the sea, in the part of the country with abundant water

In reality even current water-cooled reactors can be pretty efficient in terms of water use if you design the cooling system with that in mind. See the Palo Verde Nuclear Generating Station in Arizona.

> Perhaps they use as a cold source the underground soil

I'm not sure this would work, as you'd be storing heat in the soil without a real heat drain so the yield of the plant would decrease until it reaches zero.

For small reactors air or radiative cooling are an option though.

JumpCrisscross
1d ago
1 reply
> other advantages of the molten salt design, like not needing a lot of cooling water

This advantage is conserved by all non-water moderated reactor designs.

adrian_b
23h ago
1 reply
The use of water for moderation is one thing, the use of water for cooling is another thing, even if in many reactors water is used for both purposes.

A reactor can be moderated with something else than water, e.g. graphite, but it may still need water for cooling.

The amount of water needed for cooling is much more than needed for moderation.

So there is no doubt that many "non-water moderated reactor designs" still need copious amounts of cooling water.

Any "non-water moderated reactor design" that does not have liquid fuel, i.e. it is not a molten-salt design, must have a cooling fluid, though the fluid in the primary cooling circuit may be not water, but something else, e.g. molten metal (e.g. molten sodium) or supercritical carbon dioxide.

pfdietz
17h ago
1 reply
I believe the point was that non-water moderated designs typically operate at higher core temperature than LWRs, so they can reject waste heat at higher temperature (or reject less waste heat per unit of electrical energy produced), and that makes rejection to air more practical.

A very high temperature reactor might even be able to work with an open air Brayton cycle system, which would allow heat to be directly exhausted in that air stream. It would probably still need an in intermediate heat exchanger so the air wasn't being irradiated with neutrons.

JumpCrisscross
10h ago
2 replies
> very high temperature reactor might even be able to work with an open air Brayton cycle system

Is anyone doing that? Everything I've seen is Rankine.

jsr0
2h ago
Westinghouse plans to with their eVinci reactor. It will use an open-air Brayton cycle: https://www.nrc.gov/docs/ML2409/ML24092A122.pdf
pfdietz
10h ago
No, because it would require very high temperature. The air coming out of the compressor of a gas turbine would already be hotter than the water/steam coming out of a LWR. It would likely involve a core temperature of around 1000 C.
dmix
1d ago
2 replies
It also apparently provides a way to make reactors that don’t depend as much on water so they don’t all have to be near the coast.

This would allow Western China to also develop reactors to help underpin their renewable and coal energy.

> The interest in MSR technology and Thorium breeding did not disappear however. China's nuclear power production relies heavily on imported uranium,[10] a strategic vulnerability in the event of i.e. economic sanctions. Additionally, the relative lack of water available for cooling PWRs west of the Hu line is a limiting factor for siting them there.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/TMSR-LF1?wprov=sfti1#History

littlestymaar
1d ago
Nuclear plants don't need more water than a coal plant of the same power, they both use the same steam turbine with water as cold source.
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
> also apparently provides a way to make reactors that don’t depend as much on water so they don’t all have to be near the coast

Non-water microreactors broadly fall into two categories: ones using a different moderator, most commonly sodium, a sodium salt or helium; and those using heat pipes. Most microreactor designs don’t use water.

inglor_cz
1d ago
Reducing the energy sector to pure business would probably work in the 1990s, but not now, when countries are afraid of strategic dependence on potentially hostile suppliers.

Uranium isn't as ubiquitous as, say, natural gas, and stockpiling it comes with a big heap of physical problems. I can definitely see countries spending on more expensive technology if it comes with more energy security.

littlestymaar
1d ago
> in current market conditions.

That is, as long as we don't build more nuclear power plants.

If you want to increase nuclear power adoption, then you're not going to stay in “current market conditions” for long.

culi
1d ago
1 reply
I mean we're already doing that in many avenues. Solar being the most obvious. The only functioning solar manufacturing plants in the US are Chinese-owned and are only here to take advantage of subsidies.

Plenty has been learned by the US/West from copying their approach to agriculture, robotics in factories, mining, drones, etc. Have you seen their electromagnetic catapult technology?? That stuff seems like its from the space-age! There's even plenty of tech that we can't really explain like the all-moving wingtips on the new J-50s. (and yes, I'm avoiding talking about their supersonic cruise missiles)

hunterpayne
1d ago
Lunacy and CCP propaganda
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
2 replies
> soon the west has to copy chinas tech

Thorium MSRs don't make sense for the Americas, Europe or Australia. We have plenty of uranium.

Nuclear is receiving solid research backing in both America and China. (India is playing too. Austrlia is having an identity crisis.) Our different geologies mean there will probably be one solution for China, India and North Africa, on one hand, and the rest of the world, on the other hand.

hunterpayne
1d ago
1 reply
The cost of the fuel is less than 0.1% of the cost of running a NPP. The cost of the fuel has almost nothing to do with the economics of nuclear power. And considering a liquid fueled reactor makes heat in the 900C range and a AP1400 makes heat in the 300C range, they aren't really substitutes for each other. The amount of incorrect information in this thread is truly shocking. For example, you can make synthetic fuel from a LFTR, you can't from a BWR or a PWR. That might be a valuable feature, don't you think.
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
1 reply
> cost of the fuel has almost nothing to do with the economics of nuclear power

Who said this?

> considering a liquid fueled reactor makes heat in the 900C range and a AP1400 makes heat in the 300C range, they aren't really substitutes for each other

Nobody said this either.

There are more reactor designs in the world than LFTR, PWR and BWR, particularly if we're talking at the demonstration scale like this reactor.

hunterpayne
1d ago
3 replies
I don't know of a production NPP that isn't a PWR or BWR online today. One could exist but it would be very very old.
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
> don't know of a production NPP that isn't a PWR or BWR

Is the article about a production power plant?

dgroshev
18h ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Advanced_gas-cooled_reactor not that old
inejge
1d ago
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BN-800_reactor

Came online ~10 years ago. One could quibble about design and construction timelines; the reactor is still half-experimental, and the Russians are conducting that breeder program very slowly. But it's not a 1980s design frozen in time.

riknos314
23h ago
1 reply
> Thorium MSRs don't make sense for the Americas, Europe or Australia. We have plenty of uranium.

That covers the input side of th equation. Thorium can help transform the outputs of our existing reactors into waste with orders of magnitude better in terms of dangerous lifespan

boringg
22h ago
Thorium is and will always be a less desirable fuel source - except if you don't have access to uranium or are trying to make your MSRs work (which to date have signs of progress but no proof of commercial viability). MSR also inherently unstable due to salt.

I'm glad people are finding more research and hopefully this will unlock other tech but this has limited impact on the current trajectory of commercial nuclear and the designs currently in the labs.

Though the commentary in here does remind me how much hype has infused the nuclear space - good thing on the whole as long as an eventual AI shakeout doesn't knee cap all the good work being done.

hunterpayne
1d ago
1 reply
This is US tech that China is copying. We could have done this at anytime in the last 60 years. The blocker isn't technology, its scientifically uninformed politics.
gregbot
14h ago
The blocker is really just cheap Uranium making Thorium unnecessary
edm0nd
1d ago
2 replies
The entire Chinese way is to copy and steal from the West, its the other way around.
jyscao
1d ago
1 reply
In the present day, this is a delusional take.
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
China has engaged in industrial espionage on an unprecedented scale. To the extent there is delusion, it's in American spies being slow to returning the favour.
orangeboats
1d ago
2 replies
Clearly you have not visited China.

Try it someday. You _will_ be surprised by some of the technologies there.

gregbot
14h ago
Interesting. What surprising technologies do they have?
edm0nd
4h ago
Yeah technologies they obtained from hacking other countries and their corporations lol

why spend millions and a decade doing R&D when you can just hack American companies and steal it all for free!

gregbot
1d ago
Rickover was breeding with Thorium at Shippingport in the 1950’s. What China did is not new
boringg
22h ago
No the West doesn't need this technology.

For nuclear the playbook goes - design of technology is in the west. China copycats the reactor and puts it through their deployment engine (see current nuclear deployment). Maybe that changes -- but this doesn't prove that.

MSRs are riding the Oklo hype train and have a long way to go.

HPsquared
1d ago
3 replies
The notable thing here is that it's a molten salt reactor design, where the fuel is dissolved in a molten salt (FLiBe). This allows online continuous processing of the fuel, unlike with solid fuel rods sealed inside a pressure vessel.

This unlocks a lot of options for the fuel cycle, including the use of thorium.

This work builds on a previous molten salt reactor experiment at Oak Ridge, decades ago. There's a whole lore about MSRs.

JumpCrisscross
1d ago
2 replies
> notable thing here is that it's a molten salt reactor design

Notable, but not unique. The unique bit is it burns thorium.

AtlasBarfed
1d ago
3 replies
It breeds thorium to fissionable uranium from a starting fissionable uranium starter fuel. It doesn't directly use thorium for fuel.

What people need to understand about the cycle efficiency is that when you mine uranium, the fissionable part of uranium (U-235) is only 1% of that uranium, the rest is nonfissionable U-238.

Thorium is about twice as abundant as Uranium (all isotopes). The MSR uses Thorium to create U-233, a fissionable but not naturally occurring Uranium isotope.

So the "unlimited energy aspect" is that about 200-300x more breedable Thorium exists than fissionable U-235.

A MSR nation could also try to breed U-238 into plutonium, which would provide another 100x more breeding stock, although LFTR never talked about U-238 breeding. IIRC the plutonium may be difficult to handle because of gamma rays, but I don't recall exactly.

While I don't have confidence that even LFTR/MSR reactors can get economical enough to challenge gas peakers, it may be possible to make truly price-competitive MSR electricity with the right modular design. I wish the Chinese the best of luck, because if they do it will spur the rest of the world to adopt this about-as-clean-and-safe-as-it-gets nuclear design.

JumpCrisscross
1d ago
1 reply
> Thorium is about twice as abundant as Uranium

China has thorium, and while less than others [1], it’s better than they do with uranium [2].

> it may be possible to make truly price-competitive MSR electricity with the right modular design

Yes. But probably not in the near term with thorium. This isn’t designed to be cheaper. It’s designed to be more available to China than being dependent on Russian deposits.

[1] https://www.nature.com/articles/492031a

[2] https://www-pub.iaea.org/MTCD/Publications/PDF/Pub1800.pdf

mikhailfranco
1h ago
Geoneutrino surveys show the Tibetan plateau and western China are full of uranium and thorium:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geoneutrino

Economic recoverable reserves are another matter, but there's plenty there.

rhoads
1d ago
That's what you learn playing factorio
cryptonector
1d ago
Eh, U-235 is .7%, not 1%, but also U-238 can be bred into Plutonium. What makes Thorium interesting -besides its abundance- is that U-233 is very difficult to work with, so proliferation concerns are mitigated.
fmajid
1d ago
Not really, the US bred several tons of U-233 from thorium in the 60s.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thorium-based_nuclear_power

bilsbie
1d ago
1 reply
What absorbs the neutrons then?
lazide
1d ago
1 reply
The thorium cycle is generally neutron negative.
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
1 reply
> thorium cycle is generally neutron negative

Source for the fuel cycle?

Thorium 232 -> 233 is neutron negative. But after that you get all kinds of nonsense.

lazide
1d ago
1 reply
Thorium 232 is the thorium in the cycle yes. And all kinds of nonsense is correct for the daughter products. But in general, to actually use do anything with thorium you need excess neutrons.

Even the daughter uranium 233 only produces on average 2.48 neutrons per fission, so it’s very difficult even in a combined lifecycle process to have enough - thorium doesn’t produce uranium 233 immediately (takes almost 30 days), neutron capture with that low a ratio requires a LOT of thorium, which is going to mostly just suck up all neutrons and you won’t have any extra for addition uranium 233 fissions, etc.

It’s quite difficult (impossible?)to have actually work without a source of a large amount of additional neutrons.

JumpCrisscross
1d ago
> to actually use do anything with thorium you need excess neutrons

Unless 100% of those neutrons is being absorbed by the thorium, this means you'll have neutron flux at the boundary. Which, for a liquid moderator, means all the pipes and tanks and pumps.

pfdietz
1d ago
3 replies
MSRs have some attractive features, but they also have significant drawbacks.

The most pressing is that fissionable material is spread throughout the fluid, so fission and decay of fission products is occurring right up to the edge of the fluid. The walls and pipes containing the molten salt, and anything dipped into the salt, are exposed to unmoderated neutrons. One can shield using (say) graphite, but then damage to that (and soaking up of radioactive materials) become issues.

The Molten Salt Reactor Experiment at Oak Ridge was near the end of its radiation exposure lifetime when the program ended.

Contrast this to light water reactors. These are designed so that no lifetime component sees unmoderated neutrons. There's a thick barrier of water between the fissioning fuel and the reactor vessel wall and the support structures for the fuel bundles. The bundles themselves are exposed, but they are replaced for refueling and are not lifetime components.

cyberax
1d ago
1 reply
To add to this, even with the shielding provided by water in light water reactors, the neutron exposure is _the_ limiting factor for the reactor vessel.

The metric to look for is called "DPA" (displacements per atom), the number of neutron collisions that a material can tolerate before losing enough structural integrity to fall below the acceptable limits. The best modern reactor steels are at 150-180 DPA.

And a lot of potentially cool reactors like TWR (travelling wave reactor) end up being logistically impossible because lifetime-limited components will be exposed to multiple hundreds of DPAs.

jabl
1d ago
2 replies
Many old LWR's have had their reactor vessels heat treated during a maintenance break to undo some of that neutron radiation damage and extend the life of the reactor.

Not sure whether it would be possible to do something similar to a liquid fueled reactor, including all the hot pipework. Maybe, but yet another cost. Notably some of the recent MSR projects propose replacing the entire reactor every now and then (Terrestrial or whatever they were called, not sure if they are still around).

HPsquared
16h ago
1 reply
I wonder if it's possible to run it hot enough for the radiation damage (basically a bunch of dislocations, right?) to just anneal itself out continuously, like how Wigner energy is dissipated in graphite when it's hot enough.
cyberax
11h ago
No, this is fundamentally impossible with steel. Annealing works by making the material more "plastic", and this necessarily reduces its tensile strength. Which is the limiting factor for the vessel.

You can make the vessel thicker to compensate, but then you can just make it thicker in the first place and skip annealing.

cyberax
11h ago
Yes, it's called "annealing". Basically, the core is de-fueled and a huge electric resistive heater is put inside it. Then the entire vessel is heated to something like 600C, and kept there for several days.

It helps the atoms displaced by neutron collisions to "snap back" into the correct places in the crystalline structure. But it can never restore the material completely, and over time the annealing breaks will have to be more and more frequent.

It also can't be used for everything. Some pipes will experience large thermal stresses if annealed, and some components can't be heated properly due to complex geometry.

As with everything in engineering, all problems can be solved with additional complexity. It's possible to design LFTR reactors to be more annealable, but it will likely make them impractically complex.

There are also other issues with LFTRs. A significant part of the energy production will happen _inside_ the pipework carrying the molten salt, as delayed fission happens and daughter products decay. This will cause inevitable problems with the reactor power control.

Modern light water reactors are engineering marvels. They are incredibly compact for the amount of power that they generate, and they are now designed with the anticipated 70-100 year operating lifetime. Getting LFTRs to the same level of maturity might be possible, but it'll require literally hundreds of billions (if not trillions) invested, just like with the classic nuclear.

hunterpayne
1d ago
2 replies
> One can shield using (say) graphite

Oh dear god, no. Graphite is a very good moderator, it is in no way a shield. Those two properties are (sort of) opposites of each other. Lead makes the cheapest and best shield. Also, those parts that are exposed to neutron flux stay radioactive for about 10 years. So it shortens their lifetime in the reactor but the waste isn't a big issue.

pfdietz
1d ago
1 reply
Lead is essentially useless as a shield for neutrons that are below the minimum excitation energy of a lead nucleus. Elastic neutron collisions with lead leave the neutron energy essentially unchanged.
hunterpayne
1d ago
1 reply
I assume this is why an alloy of lead is used in practice. Still doesn't change the fact that graphite is a moderator not a shielding material. Also, structural materials in reactors are usually invisible to neutrons and a sandwich of materials is often used. Different layers do different things. Usually, one layer of shielding and one layer of a material that isn't impacted (much) by neutron flux for structural strength.

There is a rabbithole for almost all of these material choices, especially in nuclear. Not going down that rabbithole in a discussion targeted at folks who don't spend their lives working in nuclear doesn't make that person wrong. It makes them an effective communicator.

PS Lead is a very very common shielding material in nuclear.

pfdietz
1d ago
A moderator is a neutron shielding material, since it removes energy from the neutrons. That's what moderation is all about. Water is a much better moderator, but graphite still performs the function.
rdtsc
1d ago
1 reply
> Oh dear god, no [...] Lead makes the cheapest and best shield.

Oh my, definitely no :-) Do not use lead for neutron shielding. You're thinking gamma radiation but then we're talking apples vs oranges then. You want atoms comparable in size to neutrons, so something with plenty of hydrogen. Think water or PET (plastic) when you don't want water to "leak" when transporting a source. For thermal neutrons maybe PET impregnated with boron. Now neutrons may generate gamma when captured by hydrogen, then you may want some lead for secondary effects like that but I am not sure how strong those are.

pfdietz
1d ago
1 reply
Lead is fine for shielding of sufficiently energetic neutrons, which can lose energy to lead by inelastic nuclear collisions. But below the threshold for that lead does very little.
rdtsc
23h ago
Maybe as a special case then as a thin layer before following up with water or PET, or PET impregnated with boron. But would also need an extra layer following it for secondary gamma emission from neutron capture.
nateglims
1d ago
I think it has a key advantage for China specifically though which is it consumes significantly less water and they have a lot of water poor territory.

The oakridge experiment ended and not a lot of R&D has been done on salt reactors. It makes sense that China is still basically in research and testing phases for molten salts.

api
1d ago
4 replies
We have basically limitless carbon free energy with the tech we have now: solar, wind, batteries, fission breeders, large power grids that can move power around cheaply, etc. Put all those together and we have incredible energy abundance.

We also have the ability to electrify most transport except maybe long haul trucking and long haul aviation. Aviation (ALL aviation) accounts for less than 5% of global CO2 emissions, which means we could leave that alone and cut elsewhere until we have batteries and other infrastructure good enough for that.

Build all this out and it'll be cheaper and more scalable than what we currently have.

We in the USA choose to stick with ancient technology because we have a sunk cost and an existing political power structure built around it. Meanwhile China is eating our lunch. Make America Great Again! By... pretending it's 1945 and trying to LARP the previous century.

Classic innovators' dilemma at the national level.

HPsquared
1d ago
1 reply
If grid energy was cheap enough, synthetic fuel for aircraft and trucks would be competitive.
hunterpayne
1d ago
1 reply
Nope, you can't make synthetic fuel at anywhere near a competitive price from electricity. To make a synthetic fuel, the major energy input is heat (yes I know, you use electrolysis to crack the water, its a minor part of the energy required). The only way to make a cheap synthetic fuel is from a nuclear reactor that produces heat in the 900C range (could be 700C or 1100C, but near there). You can't do that with solid fuel reactors, you need a liquid fueled reactor for that. And you need Thorium for a liquid fueled reactor. That's why this design is so popular.
jabl
20h ago
> The only way to make a cheap synthetic fuel is from a nuclear reactor that produces heat in the 900C range (could be 700C or 1100C, but near there). You can't do that with solid fuel reactors, you need a liquid fueled reactor for that

Some of the highest temperature reactor concepts use solid fuel (see e.g. various VHTR gen4 concepts).

As an aside, some nuclear proponents claiming synthetic fuel production as some unique selling point of advanced nuclear sounds more like wishful thinking combined with admitting being unable to produce electricity at competitive price. With the 'electrotech revolution', most things will switch to being powered by electricity, leaving a relatively modest market for synthetic fuels (long range aviation and shipping, mainly, and some chemicals production), assuming regulation prevents usage of fossil fuels.

> And you need Thorium for a liquid fueled reactor.

No, why would you? You can use U235 in a non-breeding thermal reactor (Terrestrial being an example design), or you can run the U-Pu breeding cycle in a liquid fueled fast reactor (such designs use chloride salts as the fuel carrier rather than FLiBe).

> That's why this design is so popular.

So popular that despite being invented in the 1960'ies, it hasn't yet progressed beyond the prototype stage?

nickserv
1d ago
3 replies
> We in the USA choose to stick with ancient technology because we have a sunk cost and an existing political power structure built around it.

Yes, and also vast oil and gas reserves China doesn't have.

Also there is strong public fear and dislike of nuclear power.

In countries where there are no or little fossil fuels it is mainly this public opinion which has crippled the nuclear industry. Germany is a prime example.

Public opinion is obviously much less important in China.

tehjoker
1d ago
1 reply
Public opinion here appears to count for nearly jack squat so I don’t buy this explanation at all.
hunterpayne
1d ago
1 reply
FF extraction is very profitable and has been for a long time. Those that make money from extraction spend a lot on lobbying. They don't want nuclear power because its the only thing that can really replace FFs. The public opinion angle is just useful idiots being manipulated by people who make money from FF extraction. That makes it far easier to get the politicians to do what they want (kill nuclear).
tehjoker
1d ago
fossil fuel also underpins the us dollar so there’s that too
seanmcdirmid
1d ago
> Public opinion is obviously much less important in China.

That really isn’t true. The reason Shanghai didn’t expand their maglev to Hangzhou is because residents were worried about electrical magnetic radiation, which I don’t think is really a thing. Nuclear took a long time to get started in China because people thought the government to be inept and corrupt, an image that has only recently faded away in the last decade. Without free elections, public opinion is actually much more important if you want to avoid economically destructive riots.

But this all happens in back rooms, the legal system isn’t very relevant, so if you have an issue but it isn’t a very popular one, you don’t really have any recourse. For example, niche environmental issues, or ones that aren’t widely recognized yet as dangerous…

vjvjvjvjghv
1d ago
"Public opinion is obviously much less important in China."

In the US public opinion doesn't really matter either. It's the oligarchs' opinions that matter

thenobsta
1d ago
1 reply
I'd love to see as much electrification as possible.

On the aviation note, sadly, aviation bats higher than its C02 accounting. Contrails add another 1-2% on top of contribution from it's C02 emissions. It's entirely avoidable and could be resolved at relatively low cost.

https://contrails.org/faq/#how-are-contrails-contributing-to...

api
1d ago
If that’s the case it makes aviation like 6-7%, still low. Coal fired electricity generation is king when it comes to climate change, followed by oil fueled land transport and natural gas. Deforestation is higher too. Aviation is part of the long tail.
fragmede
1d ago
> We in the USA choose to stick with ancient technology because we have a sunk cost and an existing political power structure built around it.

You don't want to discount the cultural attachment people have to what their parents did and their childhood.

SoftTalker
1d ago
2 replies
China has distracted the USA energy focus by dumping cheap solar panels here while continuing to develop advanced nuclear generation capabilities at home.
ragebol
1d ago
2 replies
China is simply betting on all horses: solar, wind, thorium, batteries, coal even, anything to not buy foreign oil and be as independent, self-sufficient as possible. Seems like it's working too
DougN7
1d ago
1 reply
Seems like a wise thing to do too.
ragebol
1d ago
2 replies
Yup.. Happens to align somewhat with climate goals too, luckily for the rest of us. Once solar+batteries becomes the cheapest form of generation, the coal usage should also drop, if that isn't already the case
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
> Once solar+batteries becomes the cheapest form of generation, the coal usage should also drop

Marginal versus bulk. It can make sense, economically, to keep building coal plants even if solar is cheaper if you’re building solar as fast as you can and still need more power.

dalyons
1d ago
Luckily it is already the case, and it looks like coal is starting to drop in china
jjcc
1d ago
Exactly. That's less noticed by many people. Just give you two examples:

1.While China scaled up the EV production, the development of Hydrogen based technology is still going on. There are some progress but lost in the bigger noise of EV.

2.China became the largest automobile exporter, leading by EV. But most people thought that's because EV took over ICE. That's partially true because EV dominate the export. What the most people missing is a quite portion of export are ICE cars. Because the ICE engine from China achieved higher energy transformation efficiency than Japanese and German cars. Again the information was lost in the EV noise.

lordofgibbons
1d ago
1 reply
How exactly has it distracted the U.S?

I don't see the U.S rushing to adopt either renewables or nuclear. We're just increasing our fossil fuel burning (natural gas).

JumpCrisscross
1d ago
1 reply
> I don't see the U.S rushing to adopt either renewables or nuclear. We're just increasing our fossil fuel burning (natural gas)

This is wrong. Natural gas is falling from 42% of U.S. electricity generation in '23 and '24 to 40% in '25E and '26E [1]. Renewables, meanwhile, keep marching from 23% ('24) to 24% ('25E) and 26% ('26E). (Nuclear falls from 19% ('24) to 18% ('25E and '26E).

[1] https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

hunterpayne
1d ago
3 replies
That's capacity, not generation. Getting through the accounting tricks that make renewables seem viable is a challenge. 1 watt of nuclear capacity is worth 1.5 watts of FF and 9 watts of renewables. That's because the amount of power from each type of plant is very different due to downtimes of generation. Nuclear runs all the time and refuels for a couple of days every 18 months (depending on the reactor). FF plants run most of the time by require 10x more maintenance downtime. Renewables only make power about 10% of the time. That's how they skew the numbers to make renewables seem viable when they produce a shockingly low amount of actual power. Oh, and if you use renewables for baseload you have to keep a spinning reserve which means they actually increase (not decrease) the amount of CO2 emitted per watt generated.
MichaelNolan
15h ago
> That's capacity, not generation.

No that’s generation. It’s on page 49 of the report. Table 7d Part 1 “US Regional Electricity Generation” it’s measured in billions of kilowatt hours.

https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/pdf/steo_full.pdf

And if anyone is interested I have some of my own graphs on top of the EIA data to make it easier to read - https://eia.languagelatte.com/

JumpCrisscross
1d ago
> That's capacity, not generation

Irrelevant. The question is what we're investing in. "The U.S" is "rushing to adopt...renewables."

> FF plants run most of the time

"CCGT capacity factor rose from 40% in 2008 to 57% in 2022" [1]. "In the western United States," meanwhile "the capacity value of PV plants can be in the range of 50% to 80%" [2].

> That's how they skew the numbers to make renewables seem viable when they produce a shockingly low amount of actual power

This is a report from Trump's EIA.

[1] https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/average-utili...

[2] https://docs.nrel.gov/docs/fy13osti/57582.pdf

dalyons
1d ago
You should tell the folks overwhelming choosing to build and finance renewable power plants! They clearly missed this key point, they’ll surely be grateful you let them know that their renewable investments don’t make sense, and they should have picked nuclear due to it being cheaper overall
deadbabe
1d ago
2 replies
China is far better at long term societal planning. Ultimately, I expect they will be the ones who can solve the climate crisis, after being one of the biggest contributors to the problem.
cubefox
1d ago
1 reply
Actually by far the biggest, in terms of total greenhouse emissions (30% of the world). Though other countries emit a lot more per capita.
fmajid
1d ago
1 reply
Sure, but most of that is from industrial production, and really should be debited on importing nations’ CO2 accounts. Whereas in the US transportation, heating and construction are the main consumers.
cubefox
14h ago
1 reply
Importing nations are already paying for the imports themselves, from which China profits. It seems reasonable that this leaves the responsibility for the energy used on China's side.
fmajid
12h ago
If you believe that, you also believe that shipping landfill or toxic chemicals to third-worlf countries absolves us for responsibility over them.
lossolo
1d ago
> after being one of the biggest contributors to the problem.

How many "Made in China" products do you have at home right now? Who is contributing to the problem?

SilverElfin
1d ago
2 replies
This type of progress shows China is capable of moving from an economy that’s build on labor arbitrage or copying others to genuine innovation. It’s also further evidence of the extreme competence of the CCP in governance, which I feel should be acknowledged despite their authoritarian negatives.
inglor_cz
1d ago
2 replies
"extreme competence of the CCP in governance"

I don't think it makes sense to extrapolate from one particular technical field to governance in general.

The US managed to defeat both Nazi Germany and Japan plus develop nuclear weapons, all in 1941-5. Was it a proof of extreme competence of the US government in general? The some government tolerated abuse of blacks and forced segregation in the South, I would call it a serious governance failure.

tehjoker
1d ago
1 reply
Yea but afaik China doesn’t have that kind of issue. They do have an issue with anticommunists but I’m not sympathetic to their cause.
graemep
1d ago
1 reply
They very much d have that sort of issue and worse. Uighurs and other minorities, treatment of gays....
tehjoker
23h ago
1 reply
Worse than us? We're conducting a genocide. The "Uighur genocide" is not real, the people creating that narrative were right-wing christian nationalists and none of it held up. We know what a genocide looks like in the 21st century because it's being live-streamed.

Don't buy US propaganda so easily. They want to create a moral equivalence where there is none.

graemep
19h ago
> We know what a genocide looks like in the 21st century because it's being live-streamed.

That is naive. Really repressive states control that.

> the people creating that narrative were right-wing christian nationalists and none of it held up.

Like the BBC?

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-22278037

There is plenty of evidence that China wants to erase all minority cultures and religions.

segfault99
1d ago
Very good. Thought-termination achieved. Branch pruned. Back-tracking...

Now where's my pony?

JumpCrisscross
1d ago
> This type of progress shows China is capable of moving from an economy that’s build on labor arbitrage or copying others to genuine innovation

China has been genuinely innovating in manufacturing techniques for decades. If anything, that ingenunuity peaked when Xi began his term, and has been degrading as his dictatorial tendencies needlessly hamstrung Chinese industry.

DeathArrow
1d ago
1 reply
I wonder if people would think China copied this from the West.
hunterpayne
1d ago
They did copy it from the west. That you don't know this just means you don't follow a niche part of research. Its still true though.
jmyeet
1d ago
1 reply
A detailed explanation of the Thorium Fuel Cycle [1].

I'm glad China is doing this even though I'm skeptical about nuclear power ever being commercially viable. At least they're trying different things.

[1]: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2IqcRl849R0

Moldoteck
21h ago
Classic nuclear in china is pretty cheap, 2.5-3bn/unit. They dont have western problems
hit8run
1d ago
2 replies
Meanwhile Germany just decommissioned its last nuclear reactors. Given the challenges of baseload renewable generation, it's frustrating to watch working infrastructure being dismantled while we're still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
BoredPositron
1d ago
3 replies
By all the doomerism about German and nuclear there is at least Wendelstein 7-x doing frontier work. It's fine to get rid of legacy nuclear if there is a feasible bridge ahead.
empiricus
20h ago
By the time stellarator designs become economical (tens of years in the most optimistic case), you can cover the entire Germany in PV panels. Or even grow an entire new generation of forrest. So far stellarators look just like interesting vaporware. I mean they are irrelevant to any current energy discussion.
Moldoteck
21h ago
The bridge in case of germany is coal and gas
p2detar
1d ago
Not sure what the point of this comment is. China has its equivalent EAST, France has ITER. Countries can do both fission and fusion research. To me the problem isn't that Germany closed some legacy reactors, but that too little is done into looking into alternative designs.
littlecranky67
1d ago
1 reply
Comparing those old conventional reactors to MSR is not suitable at all. And they were not fully functional past their expiry date.
JumpCrisscross
1d ago
1 reply
> Comparing those old conventional reactors to MSR is not suitable at all

It is given we're talking about perceptions. I see no evidence Germany's Greens are suddently rational when it comes to modern reactor designs, of which MSRs are one.

Moldoteck
21h ago
It's not just greens. Decision is jointly made by most parties. Spd is antinuclear. Cdu doesnt care. Afd probably just uses populism
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