Are consumers just tech debt to Microsoft?
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Microsoft
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Tech Debt
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Nov 23, 2025 at 12:14 PM EST
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https://www.google.com/search?q=innovator%27s+dilemma&ie=UTF...
And came to the conclusion that many firms like DEC and Xerox did not sufficiently move to new technology because their customers were not interested and didn’t feel served by it, at least not until it had decades to improve.
Today we have the FOMO dilemma where executives all read that book and no way they are going to end up like DEC or Xerox so you get things like Windows 8, really a lot of what Microsoft has done since then has been in the same vein. We’re yet to see a “big tech” company die from the FOMO dilemma but maybe 20 years back we’ll see Google or Facebook or Microsoft in that frame.
I really don't understand the executives that read it and decide that "yeah, we are doing that impossible thing, disregard the sensible alternatives the book shows or thinking of something new!"
Meta Quest: Facebook has users, advertisers and all sorts of people who depend on Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp and such. Facebook knows that platforms like that fail eventually and doesn’t want to be the next MySpace so it has been struggling to get them into a virtual reality platform that, on a certain level, is well executed, but that people don’t have enthusiasm for. VR games for the Quest platform are pretty good but there are so many good flat games that I barely have time for them. I’d make the case that the 8GB MQ3 has enough RAM to run carefully optimized games but not enough for ordinary people to author content (some of why Horizon Worlds is dead: no way McDonalds is going to build an experience if they can’t import an SVG or PNG of the Coca-Cola logo to out in the cups and instead have to painstakingly make it out of solid geometry using the controller by hand… and the same is true for small businesses and enthusiasts) —- we are seeing 16GB headsets from Apple, Samsung and Valve now and maybe it will be better but quite probably it won’t. I know though that if Zuck gives up and somebody else succeeds he’ll have the most terrible regret.
Alibris link: https://www.alibris.com/The-Innovators-Dilemma-When-New-Tech...
Unfortunately IBM mainframes are still around. No new customers, but existing ones are too afraid of touching it because it's usually the result of decades of spaghetti hence they're locked in for the forseeble future. So they'll keep renewing contracts and refreshing hardware periodically. IBM prints money with this stuff, hence all their acquisitions of various software companies to leverage their massive B2B to sell oher stuff to those existing customer relationships.
The other end of the problem is Apple which is a consumer company, but they prohibit companies to use their hardware for building new things.
Both approaches suck for consumers and/or startups, but Apple's approach at least works for them from a business perspective.
Ultimately, LLMs will probably find their place in a new product category instead.
Desktops are on the way out for consumers.
Gaming is a bigger business for Microsoft than Windows and that can only ever be consumer focused. There's no mention of Xbox, nor an awareness that Microsoft published games are playable on the Steam Machine.
That sounds like a hardware compatibility bug to me and not Bazzite's fault - I don't have those issues on my ThinkPad Z13, nor on my GPD Win Mini 2024.
The general consumer isn't going to hear "the manufacturer hasn't upstreamed stable drivers to the kernel" and suddenly stop blaming Linux if the hardware works in Windows.
I personally use Linux for all my devices, but I'm also very intentional on making sure ALL my hardware is compatible with Linux.
If you have all hardware compatible with the mainline Linux kernel, generally you can achieve a ChromeOS-level of system stability and reliability.
But as soon as you introduce incompatible hardware, all of that goes out the window. It's why I only recommend Linux to users that have compatible hardware.
Yes, Microsoft is shifting away from consumer technology.
The difference is Microsoft is squeezing every last drop of profit from consumers on their way out. That’s not debt, that’s an asset.
In 25 years Microsoft will be similar to Oracle. Maybe they’ll have investments in some consumer brands, but largely they will be selling to enterprises and governments.
We did the same when we managed to selling process in 2024 and when we bought our current home in 2022.
We arranged a year long “digital nomad” series of trips where we flew to over a dozen cities including flights and hotels on our phones starting in 2022.
Not consumer computing, but desktop computers would disappear.
Besides techies I'm seeing more and more people not even having a personal computer at all, doing most of their "computing" on their phone and using their work computer for the rare task that does require a real computer.
The younger generations have actually regressed in computer proficiency, file management, etc.
The term is 'cash cow'. Something you milk for cash rather than grow or improve
I am going to have to suspend my objection to the HN usage of MBA as a term of abuse because of where I learn the concept......
At least in terms of Windows/Office, Microsoft has never been a consumer tech company. They've always been focused on corporate sales.
There have always been consumer-focused side areas, from Bob to Encarta to MSN to Xbox.
But Microsoft's bread and butter has always been corporations. I don't understand how the author thinks it was different at any time in the past.
Those risk-adverse behemoths are slowly coming to terms with Microsoft breaking their platforms and bread-and-butter applications.
Also, thelast few months have been a nightmare for or us as we were doing our migrations to Windows 11 and found how much of a steaming pile of poo it was - I mean, we already had an inclination, but it was even worse than the rumours. Never seen a shittier OS in my life, and that's even after considering Windows ME.
Windows 95 was definitely consumer tech.
Windows XP was about making the Windows NT line accessible for home users going forward.
Weirdly, Windows Phone was aimed at consumers at a time when they really could have leveraged integrations with products like Exchange and Office to stand out.
This is because a completely under-appreciated apsect of the iPhone revolution was that it basically created the consumer smartphone market. Until then the only smartphone market that existed was the enterprise smartphone market, which was already locked up by BlackBerry and to a significant extent, Windows Mobile (with all the corporate integrations you mention), the predecessor to Windows Phone.
But that market was constrained to the phones that corporations would buy for specific employees, typically execs or senior employees, because the average consumer could not afford those at all. That's a tiny number.
And then the iPhone was originally released at the same price point.
This is why Ballmer was actually right to laugh at the iPhone at the time. The revolutionary UI could not overcome its fundamental unaffordability. I know because I had one through my employer, and I was the object of envy because none of my well-paid, tech-savvy peers in a relatively cosmopolitan major city could afford one.
What happened then was Apple or AT&T figured out that dropping the upfront price to $200 and amortizing the rest of the cost in the data plan suddenly made it accessible to the consumer market. If you look at smartphone sales, that is the point the hockeystick starts curving updwards.
And the rest, as they say, is history.
Microsoft acquired the company for a medium sized fortune and spent so long rewriting everything into .Net (before releasing it as the Microsoft Kin Phone) that it was dead on arrival.
But Win 95 and XP were were absolutely built for corporations.
Sure, XP came in separate "Home" and "Professional" editions. But the important thing is that it was the Home version that was missing features to make it cheaper -- not that the Professional edition was primarily a consumer product with some business functionality bolted on.
Obviously Windows has always been used by both home users and corporate users. But the bulk of Microsoft's revenue has always been from corporations. There is no sense in which Win 95 was designed primarily for individual consumers, as opposed to corporate needs.
Windows NT was for businesses
I did some compilation tests on a 2025 Windows desktop with an i9 vs some MacBooks and a new top-of-the-line Windows machine can’t even keep up with a bottom-tier M1 MacBook Pro.
https://www.tyleo.com/blog/compiler-performance-on-2025-devi...
It's not weird that it led to Apple regaining _some_ market share because clearly there was demand for the Apple/MacOS/OS X experience that may have been tempered by incompatibility in the pre-webapp days.
What _is_ weird, and nonintuitive, is that the (by all accounts) higher-cost vendor would be seen as ascendent in this market. All the more weird for two reasons:
1. The Apple experience, at least on the OS side, matters less and less in the webapp world.
2. Apple isn't trying, either! They're seemingly doing their best to abandon and alienate their desktop OS users. A decade or more of stagnation or regression in features and usability, capped off by Tahoe this year.
It feels like Apple and Microsoft are just waiting for the desktop OS to die, waiting for mobile to take it over; so we can all just shut up and stop asking for filesystems and terminals so they can sell us iPads and Surfaces, and they can finally be free of this ancient burden of selling desktop computer OSes.
And the consumers keep buying the stupid things, demanding product in a market that the vendors don't want any part of.
But man… windows has been garbage for the better part of 2 decades now.
I use a Mac for work, but also use windows and Linux machines.
The best experience hands down when it comes to specific things would be Linux, for very niche things because it's way less clunky than it used to and people have figured things out in the meantime.
My mac is the only system that I can mount (without too much pain because people have figured it out) any filesystem, I can virtually open every document from Mac to Windows to Linux. I have something close to package control with homebrew. The M chips are ridiculously good at both being decently performant while low energy consumption.
Sure it has its host of issues and I would be the first one in line to dunk on Apple for many many... many many, reasons, but there are things to like with their laptops...
In comparison, recently, Windows has been more and more aggressive towards their users and their data, attempting to lock people in for some spreadsheet editor... Gone are the days of Lotus1-2-3...
Lots of things irk me about macOS UX. Finder's lack of tree view sidebar really irks me. Having to disable the silly animations and sounds when I get a new machine irks me. The absolutely terrible window tiling system irks me. When I minimize a window, I can no longer tab into it. The settings dialog's weird behavior with respect to resizing on both axes irks me. Can't use 3 monitors without an expensive DisplayLink dock and the secondary monitors end up with limited refresh rate options. Meanwhile, I can just plug just about any dock into my 5 year old Windows laptop and multiple monitors just work. Still can't find anything as good as IrfanView (as old and dated as it is, it made working with image libraries a breeze).
Finder and the poor external monitor support somehow irks me the most because now I end up typing into the CLI 90% of the time because the navigation experience is so bad and for me this is a work machine and the difficulty in using 3+ monitors is silly.
I get being an Apple Stan (love the hardware), but the software UX is 100% bottom of the barrel stuff. Basic OS stuff like Explorer is just light years ahead of Finder.
Or you could buy a MacBook Pro with an M4 Max and plug in four monitors without displaylink.
I'm running multiple types of machines in my home for work and personal use but macs have been by far the worst offender for multiscreen support for a long time.
But that has basically always been true, at least since Mac OS X. (I liked the earlier OSes too, but they really did crash all the time and have no memory protection, so arguably Windows had some compelling advantages.)
The interesting question is whether recent MacOS releases are ahead of their previous versions. Of the top of my head, I can't think of a single feature that MacOS has shipped since 2020 that I care about. Maybe dark mode?
The hardware keeps better, and the experience of third-party apps I care about (VS Code and Ableton) is superior to Windows. But the OS and first-party apps seem completely stagnant.
Which, arguably, is OK. Maybe the OS should just be a commodity. But I have to imagine that there are user experience improvements they could make at the OS but I certainly haven't seen any.
They all kind of blend together, so I asked Claude to give me a list of major features since 2020. Here are those that I've enjoyed:
* Universal control * iPhone mirroring * Stage Manager * Container CLI
Granted it's not a giant list, but each release does have little refinements here and there, and Claude may have missed some (it didn't mention container CLI, for instance; that was from my memory). I also omitted some features I don't care about (like Safari profiles and some other window management stuff).
What features are you hoping for? Aside from a tiling WM, which won't happen, I'd be happy just with refinements and bug fixes.
I wish I could disagree, but Microsoft won't let me thanks to their determination and speed in destroying what was good about Windows.
Right now I find myself forced to use macos for iOS dev, and Windows for gaming-adjacent stuff. For the first time in 33 years, I truly wish I could just have Linux everywhere.
I'm not so sure about that, modern Linux is pretty good — I was able to configure it to fit my needs much better than I could a mac. It's also free of dark patterns (looking at Windows).
If you're willing and able to configure Linux, I would say that, for some people, it's much better than a mac.
Have you _seen_ system preferences?
Nobody seems to like Tahoe, but I can't really speak to it because I don't even want to install it.
At least Windows dignifies you with an error message (even if a hex code and badly tanslated text) when something is wrong. macOS mocks you with a dumb and utterly useless message like "Something went wrong, try again" or "A USB device is using too much power, try unplugging it". Or just flat out not showing the button for the thing you're looking for if prerequisites aren't filled (iPad screen extending, unless the iPad is on the same Apple ID, and has been restarted since, the button just isn't there and there is nothing you can do to debug it other than tryingn to guess what is missing).
Also, Windows allows you to install whatever with a clear UX (this might be dangerous for random crap from the internet vs having to jump through a weird non-existing UX to get it to open, or flat out being blocked from using downloaded libaries).
Someone else on HN has a line that I agree with:”Apple makes the OS apps mundane so that people can write replacements and sell those in App Store where Apple has a fat share”.
It probably helps that Microsoft has also abandoned usability, just for very different reasons
However, its definitely true that Apple prioritizes looks is function.
We're just currently in a generation where it ceased to matter for the most part, because Apple Silicon has made the previous tradeoffs basically meaningless.
So you can't say Apple is like a fashion brand when the modus operandi differs so greatly.
The problem isn't really the experience being something like devices as a service. It's that the providers are a rent seeking duopoly.
I’m not saying there haven’t been vulnerabilities in iOS. But those were bugs that Apple tried to close. For desktop operating systems, giving third party applications that ability is a feature not a bug.
Yes I’m including MacOS in that bucket - see Zoom installing a web server on Macs without letting users know.
I see it the opposite. At least for iPhone owners Universal Clipboard and file sharing with Airdrop are killer apps.
My mum can use airdrop. She sends us things. She doesn't need to install anything or configure things. She just uses the first-party UI.
It's the same with Airpods. Bluetooth headphones? Yeah, you can buy some for $20, who needs Apple ones? Apparently everyone. Turns out providing great noise cancellation and bluetooth that just works means the product is appealing to general consumers.
On iOS, KDE Connect feels like its running a potato sack race with both arms tied behind its back.
You’ve seen much more frequent updates in the Mac line post ARM than you did in the Intel era.
In the PowerPC era the software was fantastic, especially when you factor in the much lower odds of viruses and malware. However, the hardware was well behind the curve except right at the release of a new generations, which were few and far in between.
Then when Apple switched to Intel, you had a few years of incredible hardware and incredible software. This is when the Mac absolutely blew up.
But then while Apple has constantly been improving the hardware (although they’ve made repairabiltu and extensibility worse), their software has seen a steady decline.
Where Apple has been really lucky is that while their software has seen a steady decline, their primary competitor MS’s software has seen several steep declines.
It actually kind of makes sense. Apple has stopped caring but Microsoft is actively hostile. You then have people who can afford it switching to Apple, but the higher price deters everyone who can't, which in turn reduces the pressure on Microsoft to clean up their act.
The interesting thing is Linux. It's starting from a smaller base but in the last couple of years the growth rate is even higher than macOS.
In what world is VSCode fast when its startup time is multiples of Explorer (which had in recent news decided to preload itself to mask that issue) and they are the result of exactly the same fundamental shift from native to web native
VSCode is an IDE https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Visual_Studio_Code
>Visual Studio is the one to compare to "any other heavy IDE"
Why? VSCode is an example of a well-made product from MSFT, unlike Explorer.
>and there are plenty of code editors with plugins that start much faster,
What IDE with plugins starts faster? And I'm not talking about the startup time of VSCode.
Now try to follow your own sources, both links for that sentence call it a code editor with MS doing the correct reverence " happy with using a regular code editor like Sublime Text instead of a full IDE like Visual Studio."! It's also called so on its official page "The open source AI code editor" So try to make an actual argument/use a proper source for one instead of treating wikis as the ultimate truth
> What IDE with plugins starts faster?
Sublime Text, which is as much an IDE as VSCode
> And I'm not talking about the startup time of VSCode.
You're, you are responding to a point about very slow startup time
Microsoft doesn't have to be first or best here. Just owning the plumbing of so many present-day workplaces with Teams and Office will make it hard to beat them.
How many more weeks? Also, is this before or after flying cars?
Since we're basically getting flying cars next year at the World Cup, I guess it's going to be after flying cars.
I don’t see any reason to believe that “AGI office workers” will be ready to go by 2030. All signs right now are pointing to a looming plateau in their capabilities.
Those things are not the same kind of vaporware.
Also, if you compare with 50 years ago, AGI has also (better than) halved the interval experts are commonly predicting since then.
(Of course the experts could turn out to be hilariously wrong, for fusion or AI or both. I just don't think your comparison is anything like apples-to-apples.)
Latest LLM's have already been declining in performance. It's not a plateau and it's not looming.
That's so funny. Regular people can't hahndle regular cars. Self-driving cars barely handle 2 dimensional space within very specific confines and rules, in good weather. Existing airspace is congested to the point of being problematic in most metro areas around the world.
"Flying cars" might be replacing some private heliopters, maybe. But they aren't going mainstream any time soon.
Does the flying car need to also be street legal on the ground? Does it just not have to look too much like a helicopter?
Ai builder with gpt5 + workflow triggers is very capable already. 1-2 more model generation hops needed plus a bit more “agent” plumbing before its game over for the excel and word jobs.
One or two of these, I could see. Automated progress reports would be nice. But a lot of them aren’t about document generation, but about human accountability, about being a person who commits to something in writing. Automating away paper pushers means all the accountability lands on their bosses, leaving them nowhere to hide. It will be quite something if we manage to rewrite the corporate social context like this.
While I don't disagree with you here, that's a helluva big bet. It'll have to happen soon enough that other companies aren't able to pivot in time, and despite what Altman says, I just don't see it happening at that timescale.
And yet, one that Microsoft has the best chances. Apple has all but zero presence in BigCorp outside of social media and creative teams. Google has its Workspaces thing plus its web wannabe-equivalents to Office, but that's it. And AWS is an infrastructure provider.
Microsoft in contrast? They're everywhere and most importantly, whatever is in Office 365 automatically has the "compliant" checkboxes ticked for auditors. And MS can easily ride the time until AGI or something coming reasonably close to it is marketable on that moat.
Bad take. Apple has a strong presence within the tech and digital agency world. At every company i've worked for (3 tech companies, 1 digital agency), the Macbook is the default issued workstation unless you formally request a Windows laptop.
Some roles, like finance, tax, 3D design, favor Windows but that is generally because certain software they depend on only exists in the Windows world.
Microsoft totally dominates non-tech companies though.
Oh I'm aware, working at a digital agency myself. But that's not the "bigco" world aka S&P 500, DAX and the likes.
Not from my experience. I see product managers/owners and software engineers using Macs more than Windows where I work, and it’s in healthcare, not SV. This move to Mac was gradual, starting ~10 years ago, and I believe a part of this was moving away from native apps to web apps.
Depends on the BigCorp. One of the most quentessential BigCorps out there, IBM, is deep into Apple stuff. As far as publicly shilling for Macs with extremely questionablly extrapolated data - they did a pilot with power users for a year, and came out saying Macs cost less in hardware and support than equivalent Windows Lenovos over the full lifecycle of the machine; which is literally impossible to know a year in a pilot with power users compared to the 4 year lifecycle for all sorts of people.
In general, we should expect more AI use to decrease the value of human oriented products. A word document is just some XML collection to a computer program. An AI won't need Word to create or edit the files.
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