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We wont get to AGI if we dont get models with both larger context and dreaming (aka distilling important parts from their 'day long' context and adding those to their neural net) with about the same effort/cost as inference. LLM models cannot do this and wont be able to, so if no one comes up with a better model, AGI cannot be reached, no matter what amounts are invested, so we will get an AI winter. So many smart minds are on this now, that if anyone had an idea how to 'learn during inference', someone would have released something. No one has a clue, so I am betting the downfall will come soon. Still, we got incredible progress from this AI boom, so it is not bad, just money slushing.