Back to Home8/27/2025, 6:49:23 AM

Scientist exposes anti-wind groups as oil-funded, now they want to silence him

547 points
295 comments

Mood

heated

Sentiment

negative

Category

politics

Key topics

renewable energy

fossil fuel industry

climate change

Debate intensity85/100

A scientist exposed anti-wind groups as being funded by the oil industry, leading to backlash against the scientist, sparking a heated discussion on the ethics of fossil fuel influence on renewable energy debates.

Snapshot generated from the HN discussion

Discussion Activity

Very active discussion

First comment

2h

Peak period

150

Day 1

Avg / period

40

Comment distribution160 data points

Based on 160 loaded comments

Key moments

  1. 01Story posted

    8/27/2025, 6:49:23 AM

    84d ago

    Step 01
  2. 02First comment

    8/27/2025, 8:52:47 AM

    2h after posting

    Step 02
  3. 03Peak activity

    150 comments in Day 1

    Hottest window of the conversation

    Step 03
  4. 04Latest activity

    9/8/2025, 2:55:09 AM

    72d ago

    Step 04

Generating AI Summary...

Analyzing up to 500 comments to identify key contributors and discussion patterns

Discussion (295 comments)
Showing 160 comments of 295
e40
84d ago
3 replies
The disgust this article invokes is overwhelming.

I n my ideal world these people would be prosecuted.

oulipo2
84d ago
3 replies
So let's vote them out
xyzal
84d ago
5 replies
I would love to obtain a handbook on how to convince moronic far-right leaning neighbors to change or at least soften their stance. I usually just tell them to fuck off, which apparently is not that much effective.
JumpCrisscross
84d ago
2 replies
> love to obtain a handbook on how to convince moronic far-right leaning neighbors to change or at least soften their stance

Real answer? Pick a battle and commit to it. That means allying with folks who agree with you—or have an incentive to agree—on your one issue with whom you may strongly disagree on other policy or even moral positions. This doesn’t need to be a permanent alliance, after all, just a transactional one to achieve a goal.

RHSeeger
83d ago
Just be careful not to turn into a 1-issue voter. There's a lot of people out there that vote for the candidate that agrees with them on the one issue they consider the most important... and they ignore the substantial amount of evil that candidate does that's _not_ that one issue.
westpfelia
84d ago
4 replies
Dont call them moronic. Don't tell them to fuck off.

If you HONESTLY want to try to convince people that these politicians and industries are a net negative you can not just sit there and call people fucking idiots. It makes a person retreat into their view that much more. You have to just calmly explain things. Sometimes you have to explain that thing a lot.

A lot of people who voted right wing are looking for reasons to re-evaluate their decisions. Dont give them a reason to double down by calling them fucking mornons. Soft language will win this fight.

Upvoter33
84d ago
> A lot of people who voted right wing are looking for reasons to re-evaluate their decisions

If only

jimkleiber
84d ago
> Sometimes you have to explain that thing a lot.

This.

Sometimes I think I want people to change their minds extremely and instantaneously. When I look at the micro-changes they make, and have the endurance to see these changes over time, they can actually make extreme changes and in a short period of time. It's just rarely instantaneously extreme.

Dylan16807
84d ago
If your only advice is to not insult people then this really isn't helpful.
chii
84d ago
> A lot of people who voted right wing are looking for reasons to re-evaluate their decisions

i dont believe this to be the case. If they have such a reason, then surely they would've already examined it much earlier and came to a conclusion under which they won't have been a right wing voter in the first place.

So there's something else at play, such as preconceived notions, or the inability to sort out facts from fiction (being presented as fact on TV), that makes them behave the way they did.

shoobiedoo
84d ago
1 reply
> I usually just tell them to fuck off

and then everyone clapped

Dylan16807
84d ago
That implies you don't believe the story? There is zero reason to disbelieve something as mundane as telling someone to fuck off.
vincnetas
84d ago
step one, stop calling them "moronic far-right leaning neighbors" ;)
danaris
84d ago
The problem is, what you're talking about is essentially cult deprogramming. And (AFAIK) that's a) very, very hard, b) something one does one person or small family group at a time, and c) a process that requires some kind of personal bond with the people you're deprogramming (so if you don't have one going in, you have to be willing and able to form one).

The far, far easier (at that end of things) way to solve our problems would be to shift our economic policies to favor the poor at the expense of the very wealthy, because a huge share of the cause of their stubborn stances is economic insecurity. But unfortunately, that...probably requires getting them on board, at least to some extent. (Not to mention actually having a free and fair election again, which...looks pretty dodgy at the moment.)

h4ck_th3_pl4n3t
84d ago
Cute that you think there will be an election. Why do you think have all controlling and independent agencies that are part of the election process or cybersecurity been removed in the first week via executive orders?
easyThrowaway
84d ago
Also write them a very stern letter, That'll show'em.

The only way to stop those people is boots-on-the-ground political, social, and cultural activism. No, writing mean tweets and just taking part to that fancy "guess your next leader" powerball variant you do once every four years is not remotely enough.

myrmidon
84d ago
This is a systematic problem, the exact same thing happened with leaded gas already (industry sponsored scientists spreading misinformation on toxicity, lawfare against scientists that uncover/publish inconvenient truths) but there were zero consequences.

Our current system makes it much too easy to hold on to profits even when direct negative externalitites cost millions of human life-years.

usrnm
84d ago
But we live in their ideal world, not yours
nicolailolansen
84d ago
3 replies
Anti-wind groups are oil-funded? Surprised Pikachu.
dzhiurgis
84d ago
7 replies
Why tho? Oil money should be funding renewables so they continue making money.
chii
84d ago
3 replies
> Oil money should be funding renewables

not while there's still oil to be extracted. Rigs (esp. offshore ones) take a lot of initial investment, and takes several decades to fully pay out. It's not hard to imagine that those investments hadn't fully matured and so they'd want the demand for oil to continue.

consp
84d ago
1 reply
The demand for oil as hydrogen base, plastic and other derivatives will keep those platforms profitable for a long time. Maybe not as massively profitable as now but more than a reasonable ROI. Oh wait, more profits above everything no matter what because the plebs are the only ones affected by it so they don't care.
matthewdgreen
84d ago
My very limited understanding is that many of those assets require a certain timeline and rate of oil consumption for the investment to make sense financially. If global oil consumption goes down by say 50%, lots of assets just become worthless (even if someday we use them.)
dzhiurgis
84d ago
And renewables are quick money. We need all sort of generation, it's not like renewables are going to replace all oil in near future. Every generation is being swollen up.
kergonath
84d ago
Even when going full renewable and nuclear, demand for existing infrastructure is unlikely to make these rigs unprofitable over the long term. Moving all the economy will take time.
PaulKeeble
84d ago
3 replies
Shell at one point started doing that in the UK, they installed a number of offshore wind turbines. Then they sold them and doubled down on oil.

What I think is really weird in the world today is the power companies don't seem interested in selling more power. A parallel branch of Wind and Solar companies are doing all the installations and running the power but not to the extent of bringing new capacity online, its all purely for replacing the old coal and gas systems. Quite a lot of companies are having to buy their own installations and run them so they can have their new data centre.

m000
84d ago
1 reply
For oil companies, smooth transition to renewables == lost profits.

They'd rather see world go through an energy crisis which will make their profits skyrocket, before we eventually de-fossilize.

metalman
84d ago
oil is a huge mistake at this point, as any country that is investing in a solar/wind/renewables GRID, is watching there costs go into freefall, not just freefall, but costs that are disconected from energy markets built on consumable fuels and therefor stable and predictable. many countrys are figuring out that energy stability = societal/cultural stability and are slowly backing away from the chaos and ongoing disaster of oil/carbon
qcnguy
84d ago
1 reply
It's because renewables aren't what customers naturally want, that's why grids have to be forced to take their output using preference schemes and subsidies.

The financial modeling also relies heavily on the assumption of government preference (hard if there is a huge lobby who hates your guts) and wind speeds holding constant (wind speeds are falling and this is blowing holes in wind farm finances).

eldaisfish
84d ago
electricity customers want one thing - cheap, reliable power. Where it comes from does not matter unless there is a price on carbon emissions.

The electricity grid is not "forced" to accept anything. Places like Texas show that economic incentives work for renewable energy. In fact, economic incentives are stronger than disinformation.

aurareturn
84d ago

  What I think is really weird in the world today is the power companies don't seem interested in selling more power.
They do. It's just not as lucrative as oil so they sell the business and go back to oil. Say an oil company has $100 to spend on new energy. A new oil field nets them back $500 over 5 years. Wind nets them $200 over 5 years. Why would they invest in wind other than for PR?

China has to import 70% of its oil so it needs to focus on renewables. If the US doesn't produce enough oil for its own needs, it too would be building solar and wind at scale I presume. But the US is a net oil exporter.

tialaramex
84d ago
1 reply
The whole point for them is ownership and while you can in effect own oil fields and these companies do, you don't own the wind -- the oil companies weren't smart enough/ early enough to persuade major governments to say oh, actually the wind belongs to BP and Exon.

So Hill Farmer Bob can just put a turbine up on the big hill and get "free" electricity. If there was magically Oil everywhere, and Bob was legally allowed to just drill for it, that's what he would obviously do, but in most places there is no oil and oil companies ensured they control the rights so Bob couldn't drill.

This is what capitalism is about, you own stuff therefore you get free money forever. But you don't own the sun or wind.

actionfromafar
84d ago
Which is weird, because there's precedent for companies owning water rights. The step to owning wind rigths doesn't feel that far.

I'm wondering if the current governmental backlash to wind is just a prelude to getting "wind rights" of vast geographical areas sold to some properly bribing oil corporation.

Then the company can totally control the transition from oil to wind in such a fashion as to extract maximum revenue without having to care about any external competition.

matthewdgreen
84d ago
1 reply
Fossil fuel companies and investors control massive oil assets that won't ever be exploited in a world that doesn't use oil at the rate we do. The value of these stranded assets make up a huge fraction of their valuation. To some extent that world is already inevitable, thanks to the huge renewable buildouts happening in China. But the revaluation hasn't come yet, and what the fossil companies are doing now is trying to push it out just a few more years (even a decade) so they can unload. The cost of this is terrible, and it's still doomed to failure, but there's a lot of money on the line.
newyankee
84d ago
Also most of the value capture in solar and batteries like literally 70%+ is happening in China, while this could've been a win-win situation it has disturbed a lot of existing equations of the system.

As an example I feel even Gas electricity LCOE equivalent is calculated as Capex + Opex where Capex amortisation over lifetime depends on capacity factor of Gas turbine plant. With more renewable penetration even in a competitive market like ERCOT the LCOE equivalent costs for Gas increases although technically this should drive overall electricity lower and should work for everyone.

This completely creates a significant issue for Natural Gas future too which I think was unthinkable for US Gas producers as it was the safest bet decades into the future.

Not too talk about what even a 3-4% Oil demand destruction in Oil for transportation due to EVs can do to the oil markets.

All this seemed theoretical before but now the tides are finally changing led by China and most of the world has a vested interest in reducing Oil and Gas dependency as most of the world are net importers too.

So all these plays are essentially trying to maximise the cash producing life of the current assets whether it can be achieved by FUD or whatever other means necessary.

boesboes
84d ago
Because short-term profits outweigh everything probably.
melvinroest
84d ago
You can argue both sides right? It makes business sense for oil money to do that.

However, there's also a trend that giant corporations are kind of like giant oil tankers (no pun intended). It takes a humongous amount of energy to change a company's fundamental core business. Oil companies are in the business of oil. Even if they expand to becoming an energy company, it takes a long time for them to change their "oil DNA". Based on that, I can imagine that certain oil companies - though not all oil companies - elect to maintain the status quo.

I don't think this is unique to big oil. It's unique to big {pharma, tech, oil, *}. What I find harder to find out is what the "weights" are for both sides and how they are influenced.

wraptile
84d ago
You can actually do both. This way you have full control - invest where you control the market and sabotage where you don't.
fabian2k
84d ago
1 reply
Only the ones not funded by Russia.
sligor
84d ago
1 reply
Well, Russia itself is oil founded (huge part of the budget)
mikeyouse
84d ago
It’s not a coincidence that the weird red carpet summit in Alaska for Putin apparently focused on joint energy projects with this shambolic administration.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-russian-officials...

derbOac
84d ago
I agree although I think the value of the piece is in literally mapping out the relationships, and in explaining the extent of the problems, such as in ties to defunding an entire university's research budget over it.
tovej
84d ago
1 reply
Astroturfing has been the favorite MO of harmful industries like tobacco, oil, and defense for a long time now.

It's sad that this has become so normal, and that they can pressure opponents into silence. I'm wondering if we'll ever get rid of this.

fp64
84d ago
1 reply
Remove defense from that list, they are the good guys now. I see you already omitted pharmaceutical industry so you're at least almost up to date
tovej
83d ago
Yeah, thought of pharma afterwards. But defense is most definitely on the list, even though the astroturfing looks more like manufacturing consent.
Tade0
84d ago
3 replies
A major reason I don't treat conspiracy theorists seriously is that with all their paranoia they have a huge blind spot for the Captain-Planet-cartoon-villainy the oil industry is engaging in.

Just the stuff the Heartland Institute does is enough to write a book about and still not a peep from the usual crowd.

MomsAVoxell
84d ago
3 replies
If you don't treat conspiracy theorists seriously, how would you know if the conspiracy theory scene has already addressed oil industry corruption?

The War-for-Oil conspiracy theories are proven correct.

The suppression of 'free energy' is discussed widely as being a result of oil-industry repression.

And on and on.

Tade0
84d ago
2 replies
> how would you know if the conspiracy theory scene has already addressed oil industry corruption?

Because it hasn't. The "free energy" stuff is way off the mark and pales in comparison to absolute kookery of weather machines being responsible for things climate change is actually doing.

They don't have a solid grasp of reality and it shows in how they're unaware about the specific things the oil industry is doing. Much of their rhetoric is big oil propaganda being repeated anyway.

War for oil isn't a conspiracy - it's such obvious public knowledge that there are memes about it. Yes, the country that is a major oil producer and in the currency of which most if not all oil transactions are done uses its military might to preserve the status quo - that's hardly a secret.

MomsAVoxell
84d ago
War for oil is a conspiracy, but an unprosecuted one.

Your disdain for the conspiracy theorist scene is mirrored in that scenes disdain for justice.

In the case where there is actionable justice that can be achieved, the conspiracy theory is no longer a theory - the conspiracy is prosecuted in the courts of our proud nations' democratic institutions.

viridian
83d ago
Would you claim that the U.S. invasion of Iraq being primarily for oil was not a conspiracy theory?

If so, then you are at odds with (at the very least) then president George W. Bush, and then prime ministers Tony Blair and John Howard.

You can't have your cake and eat it too, either the conspiracy theorists do include oil-motive conspiracy theorists, or heads of state have little influence over what is considered an acceptable, non-conspiratorial idea in public discourse.

yyyk
83d ago
>The War-for-Oil conspiracy theories are proven correct.

Almost all of the post-Iraq oil contracts went for Chinese companies. The US made very little of it.

Dylan16807
84d ago
You can learn about a scene without thinking they're competent.

It doesn't really prove war for oil, war tends to mess up production and also we have a huge amount of domestic production. But that depends on what exactly the claims are.

"Free energy" doesn't exist so that just goes back to them barking up the wrong tree. It's taking a real villain and blaming them for nonsense instead of something they actually do.

autoexec
84d ago
Plenty of conspiracy theorists have conspiracies about the oil industry being evil, it's just harder to spot them when so many of them turn out to be true. Fracking, OPEC, exxon, BP, government deals with "suspicious" Saudis, and oil spills are common targets. The wild stuff is pretty much the usual though. Depopulation, psychic attacks, secret global government stuff, UFOs, etc.
extraisland
84d ago
It is more likely they just don't care about the oil industry and focus their attention elsewhere. I would wager that most people assume that large corporations have dirty secrets.

e.g. I listen to a guy that goes exposes the conmen in the UFO community. The reason the guy focuses on UFOs is because he believes that when he was younger he saw a UFO. Over time he slowly realised over time that he had been lied to by these conmen. He isn't interested in the truth about the oil industry, he cares about the truth around UFO encounters because that is what he cares about.

yahoozoo
84d ago
1 reply
Next you’ll tell me anti-oil groups are wind-funded.
lstodd
84d ago
Anti-oil groups are oil funded so that the oil can show they are "responsible" to their boards.

edit: apart from that, no one is willing to pay for a realistic substitute for the fuel oil (marine) or diesel, so the question is actually moot.

wiradikusuma
84d ago
5 replies
I read the article but it's still unclear what argument the anti-wind groups use to say _why_ "wind is bad for environment/our children/the economy/greater good"?
decimalenough
84d ago
3 replies
Ruins the view, kills birds, noisy is the usual trifecta. Or to quote one site I won't deign to link to, "Protecting the marine environment and ecosystems from the industrialisation of our oceans."

Of course, the same folks have no objections whatsoever to offshore drilling.

extraisland
84d ago
7 replies
Those are the weaker arguments. In the UK, I've heard many more convincing arguments against wind power.

e.g.

- Often wind typically need to be subsidised heavily by the government and are not cost effective over its lifetime.

- Typically wind needs to be backed up by fossil fuel or nuclear power generators as it is unreliable or you need to buy capacity from elsewhere.

I won't pretend to know enough to state whether they are valid arguments or not. But they are potentially much stronger arguments against wind power than the others frequently made.

DrScientist
84d ago
4 replies
> Often wind typically need to be subsidised heavily by the government and are not cost effective over its lifetime.

Have you looked at the government subsidies for nuclear in the UK and the massive lifetime cost? In terms of offshore wind - initially it was subsidized to get it up and running - but now it's established those have dropped and dropped.

> Typically wind needs to be backed up by fossil fuel or nuclear power generators as it is unreliable or you need to buy capacity from elsewhere.

Sure - but no-one is claiming 100% wind is the target - total strawman argument. The UK goverments own net zero plan actually still includes gas generation!

One of the more bonkers arguments in the UK was when there was a massive fossil fuel price shock a couple of years ago due to wars and rising global demand - the fossil fuel lobby blamed rewnewables for the high prices!

extraisland
84d ago
1 reply
> Have you looked at the government subsidies for nuclear in the UK and the massive lifetime cost? In terms of offshore wind - initially it was subsidized to get it up and running - but now it's established those have dropped and dropped.

I said I don't know. I said had heard the argument and these are examples of better arguments against wind IMO if they are true.

I don't know what to believe. I am dubious of any reporting on these issues.

> Sure - but no-one is claiming 100% wind is the target - total strawman argument. The UK goverments own net zero plan actually still includes gas generation!

Neither are they claiming wind is 100% the target.

> One of the more bonkers arguments in the UK was when there was a massive fossil fuel price shock a couple of years ago due to wars and rising global demand - the fossil fuel lobby blamed rewnewables for the high prices!

I don't remember this. I am sure people will point the finger elsewhere rather than themselves.

I blame the high prices on fuel duty and taxes. Fuel Duty is 52.95 pence per litre and then you have to add VAT. The current diesel price is ~£1.40 per litre at the local Tesco filling station. So that is ~50% of the cost if I am understanding this correctly.

https://www.gov.uk/tax-on-shopping/fuel-duty

zekrioca
84d ago
1 reply
> I said I don't know. I said had heard the argument and these are better arguments against wind IMO if they are true. > I don't know what to believe. I am dubious of any reporting on these issues.

The person didn’t ask if you know, they asked if you had looked at reports. You cannot for once believe there weren’t subsidies as these endeavors are very time consuming with hundreds of regulations that need to be met.

> Neither are they claiming wind is 100% the target.

What do you perceive when they say wind is not reliable and increase electricity costs? I mean, it is free electricity, with minimal impact.

The way you understand about gas prices, while dismissing some arguments in favor of renewables is a bit telling.

extraisland
84d ago
> The person didn’t ask if you know, they asked if you had looked at reports.

Obviously not. I said as much. I've listened to good arguments for and against it and I don't know what to believe.

My comments were simply about the fact that you could make better arguments than the ones that were presented.

> What do you perceive when they say wind is not reliable and increase electricity costs? I mean, it is free electricity, with minimal impact.

It isn't free electricity. There is a cost to constructing them, maintaining them and decommissioning them when they become EOL.

If the wind doesn't blow, they don't generate electricity. This means that there is more demand on other sources. So price is driven by supply and demand. All of this the energy company will factor into your tariff. So obviously it is going to affect the price of electricity.

> The way you understand about gas prices, while dismissing some arguments in favor of renewables is a bit telling.

Understanding a basic tax calculation that is listed on a government website is relatively easy and took a few seconds for me to guestimate. It is much more difficult for layman (like myself) to understand the Total Cost of Ownership of a Wind Turbine, it ROI and understanding whether that maybe a good investment.

I wasn't arguing for or against wind. I was saying there are arguments against wind that might be better than the ones are often highlighted. You are mistaking me highlighting there are potentially better arguments, with agreeing with those arguments.

Moldoteck
84d ago
Didn't AR6/AR7 actually increased in UK?
exaltedsnail
84d ago
The unfortunate reality is that possibly the biggest contributor to higher prices is the phasing out of coal. Without coal there is no cheap base load - unless you happen to be somewhere blessed with hydro - and the market ends up swinging between feast and famine based on the availability of renewables.

Obviously there are very good reasons to get rid of coal, but it leads to higher prices. Reducing fossil fuels in the grid will be expensive and I worry that the lack of candor from politicians on this will end up making the transition more difficult politically.

data_marsupial
84d ago
It is still subsidised and costs (as reflected in CFD bids) have stopped decreasing.

The need for backup is not an argument against wind in itself. But it is important to consider the full system costs of wind generation, which includes the backup costs as well as the additional transmission infrastructure.

Moldoteck
84d ago
1 reply
Offshore wind is indeed expensive and requires high CFD's. For onshore it's still manageable (yet). The reason is solar eats part of their profits and payoff becomes too long

Firming argument is valid, but UK deploys nuclear/gas anyway. You can start feeling real challenges past ~70% ren generation - firming becomes more expensive due to opex but you still need it and gas opex is smaller vs nuclear in this low utilization area. So now you are in a moral dilema- ditch nuclear and build gas firming or reorganize capacity market so that nuclear has some CFD or is compensated for firming&grid stabilization (not all nuclear can operate in island mode so that's another factor)

Germany choose the path of gas expansion if you read Fraunhofer. UK is still in a mix. Nordics are lucky with hydro so they can expand basically all low carbon tech

zekrioca
84d ago
2 replies
Nordics (Sweden, Finland) are expanding nuclear as well. Their energy ministers are very pro-nuclear, for some funny reason.
Moldoteck
84d ago
1 reply
The reason is peak demand. If your demand is say 5GW and hydro can provide max 3GW, unless you overbuild ren, it's 'easier' to have some more firm power while ren will act as water savers for hydro (especially considering droughts).

For now they have sufficient power, but considering nuclear timelines, you better start now

Enhanced geothermal could play a role here, but for now it's debatable.

zekrioca
84d ago
1 reply
They have lots potential for wind (~20%) and hydro. Peak demand is increasing, but lasts for very specific amounts of time during a day, it doesn’t justify the increases in base load. These peaks could be certainly fulfilled by smarter grid management, demand-response, and electrification before new building new power plants. Yet, many of these will be needed despite nuclear, but since nuclear is the elephant in the room, they are going with it first, while stalling everything else. They are even trying to convince Germany to do the same.
Moldoteck
84d ago
2 replies
"smarter grid management, demand-response, and electrification" - electrification increases the demand, maybe you meant efficiency?

Demand response is basically - please don't use power because we don't have enough or because it's expensive. That's not an appealing option.

Smart grid management is good but it'll take years to reach good condition - you need to expand/upgrade transmission and distribution systems with proper equipment.

Germany has it's own path that's more or less stable for a long time- coal+gas firming, tons of ren and major transmission expenses, to the point govt will start subsidizing them

zekrioca
83d ago
1 reply
(I) Electrification displaces energy demand. Efficiency controls growth of demand. Various limits have been reached with efficiency. (II) Demand response is not about “do not use power because we don’t have enough.”, it is about “here is some money so you shift demand to a later point in time when saturation is lower.” (III) It doesn’t take years to find better ways to manage the grid as is. Do you think there won’t be a need to upgrade large portions of the grid to handle new nuclear plants?

THE UK gets 30% of its electricity from wind and another 5% from solar; Denmark gets 70% from renewables, mostly wind. Iowa gets 65% of its electricity from renewables, mostly wind; California, whose economy is larger than that of most countries, gets 38%, mainly from solar.

But some lobbyists are trying to kill momentum, especially those who see nuclear as a silver bullet. It is not.

Moldoteck
81d ago
Electrification doesn't displace demand. It adds more demand.

what you described with demand response is equivalent of rationing- use power when weather is good because otherwise you'll not afford it

Don't confuse transmission needed for 1GW of nuclear vs 10GW of solar with 10% cf and more redispatching requirements

ZeroGravitas
83d ago
No-one ever characterises cheap rate electricity at night that is common with nuclear as "please don't use power during the day because we don't have enough".

It's a strange double standard. As is the building of expensive pumped hydro storage for use with nuclear.

ViewTrick1002
81d ago
1 reply
Politically Sweden the current government is wanting to expand nuclear power through the largest subsidy program in Swedish history.

The company supposed to build them held a tender for first SMR, then pivoted to large scale reactors and shortlisted three options. Then that tender disappeared and now they have shortlisted 2 SMR options.

What is happening is a no one wanting to admit the absolutely ludicrous costs and hope the question will fizzle out.

Which as we all know are paper products which rely on ”scale” to achieve anything. No one seems to talk about who will buy the couple hundred SMR prototypes to achieve said scale.

Moldoteck
81d ago
1 reply
I'm not sure about largest subsidy program. Large reactors make more sense but since Korea was banned by US, realistically it's better to pick Hitachi to get something on the grid
ViewTrick1002
81d ago
1 reply
Nothing even comes close. We’re talking tens of billions of euros.

”Get something on the grid” when the mangled number put out in PR communication is 2035.

So realistically early to mid 2040s. Why not just build renewables and storage and have ”something on the grid” counted in months and years instead of decades?

Moldoteck
81d ago
1 reply
Sweden did spent similar amounts for ren subsidies over years, that's why I'm not sure it's the biggest. If the goal is 1.5gw nuclear, that would be about 20bn for bwrx if fully funded by govt, looking at Canada. 20bn is a lot, but on the other hand Sweden for sure did spent similar amounts for ren over years.

renewables cover different aspect of demand. What you do if you don't have enough firming power? Hope neighbors will have spare power? That's why you start planning nuclear now, or you'll start planning gas later, just like Germany

ViewTrick1002
81d ago
Please stop guessing and making stuff up?

Anti subsidy reports in 2019 [1] landed on a what was seen as a worryingly large €10B for the entire Swedish market based subsidy system over the period from 2003 to 2045. 2018 the actual costs landed on €300m.

In 2021 the price of the system went to zero and was subsequently phased out for new producers. You know; market based subsidies.

In other words, much less than €10B will ever be spent on it.

Please stop making stuff up because you can’t bring yourself to accept how horrifyingly expensive new built nuclear power is.

Are suggesting that we should build peaking nuclear power plants to solve firming? Because that is Sweden’s problem. Managing a January cold spell coupled with low wind is what is used to calculate the resiliency.

What capsize factor should we calculate? 20%? That is way higher than a January cold spell but let’s go for it.

Running Vogtle at a 20% capacity factor leads to 80 cents per kWh electricity.

What you are suggesting is completely batshit insane when actually putting a number on it.

Who cares if the final bit of firming is fossil based with possibility to be decarbonized through synfuels, biofuels or hydrogen when we still have large portions of the economy to deal with?

Don’t let imaginary perfect be the enemy of good enough.

[1]: https://timbro.se/miljo/ny-rapport-subventioner-till-fornyba...

UncleMeat
84d ago
1 reply
> Typically wind needs to be backed up by fossil fuel or nuclear power generators as it is unreliable or you need to buy capacity from elsewhere.

I have never understood this complaint about solar and wind. If we could have our electricity 100% generated by green sources most of the time and then rely on other sources (even natural gas) to supplement when there isn't enough being generated by solar and wind I would weep with joy. That'd be an astonishingly huge victory in the fight against climate change. I wouldn't even care if we needed significant government subsidies to ensure that the gas plants stay profitable while their demand is unpredictable.

extraisland
84d ago
If you need to get your power from elsewhere. This raises several issues:

- This increases demand on other sources of energy. If there is a sudden change in demand you have a price spike. This leads to an increase in price to consumers.

- If the grid also has to be re-balanced. This has a financial cost in of itself. If the grid can't be re-balanced you can have blackouts. Blackout can potentially kill people, it effects business etc.

- If you are getting it from other countries, this means you are reliant on another nation for your energy needs. This is a security issue. e.g. Norway threatened to ration energy exports back in 2022. This would of course increase the price.

- Energy prices have a knock affect to everything in the economy and are a significant driver of price inflation. This obvious has an adverse affect on the economy.

Subsidies are paid for via taxation. At the moment the UK is likely to increase taxation again in October as they were unable to cut benefits earlier this year. The larger the subsidies a government are paying the more money they need collect in taxation, or you have to borrow. The UK is unlikely to be able to collect much more tax, and we are borrowing a huge amount of money as it is.

derbOac
84d ago
1 reply
The problem is the cost of oil is downstream. The reasons why citizens want an alternative is because of those costs. If you added on all the environmental and health costs — all of them — you'd find oil is being subsidized in a different way.

I'm not even antioil in general but I am pro diversification, and think it's absurd to bring up government in that way when a major point of government should be to represent value for the citizens, that might not be represented in the market otherwise.

ACCount37
84d ago
Oil is often subsidized directly too.

Same reason why agriculture is - too vital of an industry. Which might make sense from a national security standpoint - but it also gives the oil industry yet another reason to fight tooth and nail against anything that can diminish the importance of oil.

If oil ever became non-vital to the country's infrastructure and economy, those subsidies would stop, and the entire industry might go the way of British coal.

HPsquared
84d ago
Different arguments work on different people.
CalRobert
84d ago
Of course, the UK subsidizes fossil fuels by way of the NHS (asthma and lung disease are no joke) but that is apparently fine.
olau
84d ago
The UK used to have very high subsidies for offshore wind for some reason. The last I've heard, subsidies for new plants are much lower today.

As for being cost effective, onshore wind is probably the cheapest option, and I think it's hoped that offshore will come close to that once more of the learning curve has been traversed. Perhaps fossil gas from the North sea is still cheaper for now, if you ignore the external cost.

I think solar power is even cheaper, but doesn't deliver much in the winter so far up north.

Backup: Batteries are cost effective for short term shortages. For long term shortages, you'd fire up thermal plants, either biomass or biogas (fossil gas for now).

It doesn't make sense to back up wind with nuclear. Nuclear has a high capital cost and relatively low running costs, so you don't save much from being standby but you still need to pay back the loans.

EasyMark
83d ago
Or just dumping heavy metals into the water table or various other industrial waste.
thaumasiotes
84d ago
> Of course, the same folks have no objections whatsoever to offshore drilling.

Well, if they were entirely sincere in their concern for the view, the birds, and the noise, only one of those concerns would apply to offshore drilling.

Considering "preventing industrialization" to be an end in itself is something different, usually associated with being pro-wind-power.

defrost
84d ago
One version, frequently bandied about, is the excerpt from Landman, a recent fictional TV drama (5 minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fmbZwxEnAFc

There is, of course, a debunking video response (14 minutes): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oKVNFqqzvP4

NIMBYism (destroying the beautiful views from my golf course) and "Think of the birds" also feature high on the list.

adornKey
84d ago
I don't know about those groups, but the arguments I saw so far are these:

   - Unclear maintenance - there's no clear way what to do with dysfunctional mills on land. 
     Just letting them rot seems to be a thing. Offshore maintenance is surely no fun, too. How long do they last?

   - Pollution - there's a lot of abrasion and this stuff is pretty unclear, 
     it's even going into places where clean water is collected. Does anybody care about this?

   - Ecology - there are a lot of trees that get cut down for wind. Maybe keeping those trees would be better. 
     Kills birds and bats is also part of the argument

   - Economy - a lot of energy is produced at the wrong time. So much that it's even expensive to dump.
     How much energy goes into producing the mill, and how long will it last?
     Does this break even if you subtract subsidies, maintenance and value the dumped excess-energy realistically? 
     Is there any good storage solution coming - or will this remain to be a myth?
 
In the end Economy is most likely the only thing that matters. But I guess this is not looking so good - if it would be looking good you'd see more logos of big energy companies on all these mills...
sligor
84d ago
Who needs argument in 2025 ? Just say it is "woke".
probably_wrong
84d ago
From what I understand the point is precisely not having to straight up say out loud why, "attacking renewable energy solutions without necessarily questioning the science that the climate is changing due to human activity".

Two argument seem to be to "claim damages from the visual impact of offshore with projects located off their coasts" and "invoking the federal environment legislation such as the Endangered Species Act and Marine Mammal Protection Act".

whatever1
84d ago
2 replies
I don’t think big oil feels particularly threatened by renewables. They are definitely scared of nuclear and car batteries.
michaelbuckbee
84d ago
1 reply
Anthropomorphizing big industries is always fraught, but looking at their actions, I'd concede it means something that the American Gas Association is doing things like hiring influencers to promote gas cooking over induction ranges.

https://www.treehugger.com/the-marketing-of-gas-stoves-never...

ozgrakkurt
84d ago
1 reply
Unrelated but gas stoves are really better imo.

Heats faster, doesn’t crack etc.

IX-103
84d ago
With induction, heating faster is just a matter of getting a high enough wattage stovetop. So maybe don't compare a low-end induction stove to a gas one? Low-end gas stoves have different problems (reliability, ease of cleaning, etc).

With gas you also have to worry about proper ventilation, and most homes don't actually have that. Not to mention that gas leaks are a risk as well.

viridian
83d ago
In my opinion, all energy industries should and probably do feel threatened by solar. Since 2022 or so, all metrics I have seen put its cost per kwh ahead of natural gas, and thus, significantly ahead of every other energy source. It's also incredibly decentralized and flexible, I don't see a way that it doesn't become dominant in the next decade.

It's performance is actually a huge risk point as well, since it's so periodic.

testhest
84d ago
7 replies
Wind is only useful up to a point, once it gets above 20% of generation capacity ensuing grid stability becomes expensive either through huge price swings or grid level energy storage.
ceejayoz
84d ago
2 replies
This talking point is years out of date. We’re doing grid-level energy storage already. Expect more.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-06/what-australia-can-le...

> For the first time ever, California's batteries took over gas as the primary source for supplying evening power demand in April, providing "akin to the output from seven large nuclear reactors" one evening, according to the New York Times.

akvadrako
84d ago
1 reply
These batteries last a few minutes when they are fully charged. In the winter it's not unusual to have close to zero wind power for a few days and it could come after a few weeks of lower output, so they aren't fully charged.

You'll notice in your article they are almost always talking about power instead of energy because energy is the problem.

We still need about 100 - 1000x improvements to rely on batteries without reliable power plants, depending on how much the generation capacity is overbuilt.

plantain
84d ago
1 reply
If only we could model how frequently there was zero wind and whether that calculates with zero solar. Oh wait, we can, and we do. It's not even hard.

https://reneweconomy.com.au/a-near-100-per-cent-renewables-g...

In reality we will still have a lot of fossil generation which will make it 'easier'.

qcnguy
84d ago
1 reply
The recent full blackout in Iberia was caused by renewables destabilizing the grid, and the fossil plants were cold so couldn't save the day. Having fossil plants is of no use if they were mandated by the government to turn themselves off.
defrost
84d ago
1 reply
The causes were complex interactions and the October report has not yet been released.

There are numerous camps with strong impassioned and conflicting arguments as to cause.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2025_Iberian_Peninsula_blackou...

qcnguy
84d ago
1 reply
The grid operator did release a report, and it stated that the problem was desynchronization of a solar farm, followed by more frequency destabilization as they tried to combat the first problem, followed by a panicked attempt to bring gas plants back online but they weren't available. They'd been switched off to make way for solar and would have taken hours to warm up.

The only sense in which there are conflicting arguments, is that the leftist Spanish government read the above report and concluded that it was the fault of the gas plants for not being available when they were needed. Because they were switched off. Because of their own policies. This is not an argument that deserves genuine consideration.

defrost
72d ago
It's been 20+ years since I worked in a state power control facility, it seems from your comment that you've never done such a thing; they're more complex than your comment suggests.

The preliminary report was exactly that, preliminary off the cuff listing of things that might cause issues with no definitive conclusion .. hence the need for longer consideration and a final report.

> the leftist Spanish government

Drop the politics and act like an Engineer (civil, electrical)

> the fault of the gas plants for not being available when they were needed. Because they were switched off.

It's routine across the globe to bring power generation facilities on and off, and spin them up in anticipation of need - this incident is a failure of a control algorithm regardless of politics.

Moldoteck
84d ago
1 reply
It's not out of date. BESS has different utility in different weather areas. Germany would need the equivalent of 20-30y of global bess deployments to ditch fossils, not considering realistic power transfer or weather forecast. That's why even their pro ren Fraunhofer ISE recommended gas expansion
ceejayoz
83d ago
1 reply
> Germany would need the equivalent of 20-30y of global bess deployments to ditch fossils

“In 2019, California had 770 megawatts of battery storage. Now, it's 14 times higher, at 10,383 megawatts, and by the end of this year, it expects to add another 3,800.”

We saw the same curve with solar and wind. 20-30 years worth today will be peanuts in the near future. You’ve outlined a very achievable goal.

Moldoteck
81d ago
If you think 2-3TWh for a single country, assuming ideal conditions and no demand growth is an achievable goal, welp
jncfhnb
84d ago
1 reply
Oil is only useful up to a point, once your planetary ecosystem starts to collapse it gets a lot more expensive
Filligree
84d ago
The oil stays cheap. It’s everything else that gets expensive.
DrScientist
84d ago
2 replies
Sure you need baseload/storage as part of the mix - however where do you get the 20% figure from?

For the past year in the UK the average is ~30% generation from wind. https://grid.iamkate.com/

So seems it's possible. Swings in generation are dealt with via inter-country interconnects, pumped storage and gas turbine generation. Nuclear adds a steady base.

Moldoteck
84d ago
1 reply
The argument was about the cost, UK having highest prices on the continent (depending how you count subsidies for others) but 20% seems too low anyway. Normal plants are still fine at 60% cf
plantain
84d ago
3 replies
The UK has insane prices because of their refusal to do regional pricing to accommodate grid constraints. They'd rather pay wind farms to park their turbines, than to segment their grid pricing (i.e. make energy prices cheaper where there is a surplus of wind generation).

The UK's prices are a political choice due to the mapping of voters over the energy generation distribution.

Moldoteck
84d ago
1 reply
Isn't regional pricing dangerous for industry if it's concentrated in wrong areas and moving it isn't easy?
AndrewDucker
84d ago
2 replies
It means that the industry has to actually follow economics, and build supply where the demand is.
Moldoteck
84d ago
1 reply
But it followed economics. What you are saying is that now you want to screw it, because moving industry/trained labor to other areas isn't a plug and play option- it's a huge investment which could lead to closures
AndrewDucker
84d ago
1 reply
The government, by saying that there was a single zone, despite the electricity not actually working that way (because interconnectors don't have infinite capacity), were defying economics.

By breaking the country in to zones, where the electricity that's bought can actually reach the users they then apply the actual economics of the system properly, and encourage suppliers to build where the demand can be satisfied by them.

Moldoteck
84d ago
But in the past it made sense to have a single zone- prices were similar. So industry developed where possible. Now what you ask is that due to the ren generation, the pricing should change, so that industry that was formed long before current ren push needs to restructure/move to more advantageous locations because otherwise it'll use competitiveness. If you are fine with such development and it's consequences, you could ask for such reforms.

Situation is very similar in Germany - most industry is concentrated in the south while most productive wind in the north. In the past it didn't matter since prices were similar with coal. But now, since you can't magically create wind in low wind/unproductive areas, the options are either split zones and kill part of industry, which Germany doesn't want, or to keep a single zone and build expensive transmission like sudlink.

teamonkey
83d ago
Or rather, build demand (move industry) where the supply is (Scotland)
mnw21cam
84d ago
2 replies
We also have this rather unusual energy market where the price for energy is set by the supplier with the highest price necessary to meet demand at any particular time, and all the suppliers get paid that price. Most countries use a system where the suppliers get paid how much it costs for them to generate individually, and the users pay an average of that all.
Moldoteck
84d ago
No, most countries use the same merit order mechanism like UK. The difference is that in those countries gas peakers are competing with cheaper hydro (nordics), coal(Germany) or nuclear (france). UK nuclear is pretty small, so gas competes only with itself for setting the price.
plantain
83d ago
If you sit down and think hard about it, I'm not sure you'll figure out a better system. It does make sense.
ZeroGravitas
84d ago
Curtailing renewbles due to grid constraints is usually a perfectly rational decision. New generation, new storage, new demand and new grid connections don't always happen on the same schedule.

Now, banning onshore wind in England for a decade when it was the cheapest source of energy available. That's just plain stupid (or a corrupt gift to your mates in gas companies).

dvrj101
84d ago
Finland at 24% and increasing steadily.
olau
84d ago
1 reply
This is false. Take a look at Denmark. This argument was repeated there in the past for "above X", with X being 15%, 20%, 30%, 50%.
svantana
84d ago
Not necessarily disagreeing, but Denmark's grid is integrated with europe. If the rest of europe catches up with Denmark in wind power, that will definitely be a challenge, since wind speeds are correlated across the continent. Not unsolvable, but it's an issue for sure.
sfn42
84d ago
It's fairly rare that there is no wind at all, especially at wind turbine height, and if you have 100 different wind farms spread out across different regions you'll usually have a decent amount of them producing at any given moment. We can also use batteries of various kinds to handle peaks and valleys, not to mention solar, hydro, nuclear and some gas to pick up slack when necessary.

I don't think anyone is expecting wind farms to supply anywhere near 100% of energy production. Probably not even 50%.

scott_s
84d ago
That's true of all renewable energy sources. So we should take advantage of all of them, as much as is feasible.
dhx
83d ago
Not true. 100% variable renewable energy (VRE) grids are found to be economically viable almost anywhere on the planet.[1] These are grids which don't require any fossil fuel "firming".

From the IEA report: "Substantiated by in-depth case studies, this report infers that, almost anywhere on the planet, nearly 100% VRE power grids firmly supplying clean power and meeting demand 24/365 are not only possible but would be economically viable, provided that VRE resources are optimally transformed from unconstrained run-of-the weather generation into firm generation."[1]

However, propagandists routinely spread misinformation on firming. For example, they might cite the absolutely absurd LFSCOE which is funded by the energy sector's equivalent of the Center for Indoor Air Research[2][3][4].

[1] https://iea-pvps.org/key-topics/firm-power-generation/

[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cost_of_electricity_by_source#...

[3] https://www.desmog.com/2016/01/10/rice-university-s-baker-in...

[4] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Center_for_Indoor_Air_Research

narrator
84d ago
2 replies
Yup, and George Soros does actually funds pro-wind groups. Open Society Foundation gives $400 million over 8 years to green economic development. That said, I think that's a bullshit argument for not supporting wind, and I'd much rather have an argument with data about the long-term economics.
Fraterkes
84d ago
1 reply
You’ll notice these are not at all comparable because Soros does not have an obvious financial interest in wind supplanting oil
salynchnew
82d ago
This is important. There's a difference between charitable donations that are actually for the public interest vs. shadow lobbying by oil companies.
EasyMark
83d ago
If I was a billionaire with tons of money and maybe 10 years of life left, I'd be dumping millions all over care free to counteract some of this MAGA nonsense that's trying to turn us into a country of conspiracies, "faith" in invisible sky daddies, and luddites.
qwertox
84d ago
2 replies
A country can commit to 300 years of wind energy, temporarily harming a bit of nature.

Once a better solution has been found, the land can be freed for the nature to take over again.

We have no issues with stealing a couple of square miles of nature in order to pave it for our cities or to use it for farming.

Once you remove the wind turbines, the harm you've done to the nature was minimal: production of the turbines, used area and generated noise, minimal pollution of the area, the troubles of recycling them. That's mostly it.

You don't have this with oil, nor with current-age nuclear.

Also, we've already accepted the noise of cars, trucks, motorcycles and planes.

So I really don't get what they are protesting about, specially in Germany.

Moldoteck
84d ago
1 reply
Isn't the idea of npp decommissioning to leave the area as it was before npp? Environmental impact of different techs was described in UNECE report I think
ACCount37
84d ago
1 reply
Uneconomical. The best way to dispose of things like the weakly radioactive reactor hulls is often to simply leave them when they are.

They aren't particularly dangerous, and they don't leach contaminants. So you just bury them so no one can access them too easily. But it does require leaving the sealed reactor buildings in place - even if you can reuse the rest of the land and the exclusion area.

Moldoteck
84d ago
I think it's still done as full dismantling (but maybe not all countries?). French superphenix will be basically erased. Something similar is happening to german plants like Isar 2

Some countries may have postponed decommissioning because it's cheaper to wait a bit Some countries allow recycling of some stuff, even concrete, like Italy

CalRobert
84d ago
1 reply
Germany is famously abhorrent of change. "We've always done it this way" isn't used ironically.
AlexandrB
84d ago
3 replies
Unless the change is shutting down perfectly good nuclear power plants[1]. The energy transition in Germany has been handled horribly for reasons I can't understand.

[1] https://www.base.bund.de/en/nuclear-safety/nuclear-phase-out...

ACCount37
84d ago
3 replies
Germany and piss poor energy policy - name a more iconic duo.

The way I understand it, Germany had a horrid mix of anti-nuclear eco-activists, local coal lobbyists and Gazprom's natural gas lobbyists. The politicians not included in any of the above were too toothless, and couldn't fight through this bullshit and secure good outcomes regardless.

ZeroGravitas
84d ago
2 replies
And yet, despite multiple attempts by those on the political right to slow it down, they've powered ahead with reducing coal and gas usage.

Some of those critics focus on nuclear (Like AfD: https://www.cleanenergywire.org/news/populist-afd-sand-gears...) and some of those pretend to be angry about the slowness of Germanys transition but it doesn't really add up to anyone who pays attention to the local facts. It's just a meme to get people angry at the left and/or environmentalists, while the right openly and continually sabotage progress.

philipallstar
84d ago
1 reply
Opposition to nuclear is 90% a "left" wing problem. Blaming the boogeyman "right" is silly in general, as left-right is a thought-terminating scale, but really silly in this case where it actually is pretty clear-cut.

Greenpeace did great work on the peace front, but wrecked 50 years of carbon progress on the nuclear power front.

triceratops
83d ago
> Opposition to nuclear is 90% a "left" wing problem. Blaming the boogeyman "right" is silly in general

The "left" (by your definition) also opposes fossil fuels but we're nowhere near eliminating those. Why haven't they succeeded?

Surely mere "opposition" isn't enough.

CalRobert
84d ago
Why all the asinine “atomkraft? Nein danke!” Signs? The policy seems designed by 70 year old hippies.
Qwertious
84d ago
1 reply
The problem was "compromise" - essentially as part of forming government the Greens and the CDU (Angela Merkel's party) agreed to an energy policy where they would phase out nuclear and replace it with a fuckton of renewables. But the actual govt did only the former without the latter (despite the previous agreement and the Greens' protest of Where Are The Fucking Renewables), thus leaving only coal and gas.

Leaving nuclear in place would be good, going heavily into renewables would also be good, but doing neither would be idiotic, and somehow that's what they did.

MagnumOpus
84d ago
1 reply
This is very much wrong. The Greens were never in a coalition with CDU/Merkel. (Merkel was in coalitions with the SPD/Social Democrats and FDP/Liberals.)

Greens were in a coalition with the Social Democrats led by Chancellor Schroeder; Schroeder agreed to the Greens’ demands for nuclear exit and negotiated a board role at Gazprom for himself after his political career.

Merkel initially wanted to reverse or freeze the exit timeline but bowed to public opinion to continue it once the tsunami hit Japan.

ACCount37
84d ago
Yep, this is what I meant by "anti-nuclear eco-activists", "Gazprom oil lobbyists" and "toothless politicians" respectively.
hvb2
83d ago
> Germany and piss poor energy policy - name a more iconic duo.

I mean not always, they put feed in tarifs for solar in law at the end of the 90s. This led to a huge boom in solar production and it made the Germans very big in solar panel production. Unfortunately, like all other countries they were eventually outproduced by china.

This model has been copied in a lot of places afterwards and only when a mature market for solar exists does it stop working (it becomes a subsidy for people that produce paid for by people that don't).

CalRobert
84d ago
2 replies
They were scared after Fukushima, a nuclear disaster that if anything showed how resilient nukes can be compared to coal, which just gets away with killing thousands of people quietly. Perhaps they’re better at vibes than they are at maths.
MagnumOpus
84d ago
2 replies
The nuclear exit was started 10 years before that - mostly also because of vibes: the Green Party became junior coalition partner in the government for the first time, and the greens had a longstanding anti-nuclear stance from their roots in the 1970s anti-nuclear weapons movement… They pushed for the nuclear exit.

When the conservatives regained power, they vowed to cancel and stop the exit timeline, but then came Fukushima and an irrational media panic - and Merkel did what she does best.

pydry
84d ago
2 replies
Vibes, chernobyl and also the absurd cost of nuclear power.

Poland is building nuclear power now though, after decades of burning epic amounts of coal (~85% of their electricity output).

This is most likely coz it provides a route to creating a nuclear weapon in a hurry "just in case". It isnt cost effective for them for any other purpose.

CalRobert
84d ago
Well they saw what happened to a nuclear free Ukraine
ZeroGravitas
84d ago
> Poland generated 54% of electricity from coal in 2024, down from 70% just 2 years ago

https://ember-energy.org/countries-and-regions/poland/

They keep putting their nuclear switch on date backwards (2040 now I think?) but renewables have been taking big chunks out of the problem and will continue to do so.

jajko
84d ago
> and Merkel did what she does best.

You mean f_ck up safety and security of whole Old continent for decades to come, for some ego polishing, personal weaknesses or similar noble reasons?

She still admits no failures nor missteps during her reign in many topics where she clearly failed badly, despite journalists asking very direct questions about this. I wonder when will German population realize how much long term damage she has done, if ever.

xg15
83d ago
No, antinuclear sentiment in Germany runs much deeper - but if anything, we were scared after Chernobyl.

The German antinuclear movement started as a local aspect of the 68s civil rights and environmental movements. Then, when Chernobyl hit, West Germany enacted restrictions in daily life to cope with the risk of radioactive fallout and contamination. The daily experience of many Germans was probably not too dissimilar from the Covid time. (The restrictions were less severe but the mood was similarly apocalyptic)

This experience made a nuclear-free Germany an absolute core part of the progressive movement here. It's part of the founding story of the Greens.

Other flashpoints were plans for "eternal storage" facilities for nuclear waste. The conflict around the Gorleben facility was going on between government and local population for several decades and had given rise to entire protest communities.

It's a partisan topic like maybe abortion in the US.

The only aspect of Merkel's decision that was surprising was that she did it. She seemingly switched political sides and enacted several parts of the progressive agenda (also gay marriage and "wir schaffen das" - the famously liberal stance on refugees) - as head of the conservative party. Her party and voting base were not happy with that...

pydry
84d ago
2 replies
It's wild how much shit Germany got for turning off gas, coal and nuclear power plants (which comprised about ~8% of their power) while Poland running on ~80-90% coal for decades without changing anything was nbd.

It's almost as if the outrage was astroturfed into existence by the nuclear lobby using similar tactics to the oil lobby.

oblio
84d ago
1 reply
Poland was much poorer and less significant economically.
pydry
84d ago
No, Germany drew negative attention precisely because it was turning off coal plants - without nuclear power.
ZeroGravitas
83d ago
It's the fossil lobby directly.

You never hear someone complain about Germany's nuclear exit and then pivot into "but at least they're doing well with renewables and they should do better and go faster on EVs and electrification of heat" which would make sense for someone who had a strange affection for nuclear tech, particularly those last two which work great with nuclear.

What you do see is people absolutely seething about leftists and environmentalists and renewables who only have one just barely socially acceptable outlet to attack Germany on.

But they attack them not because their decarbonisation is slow but because they were clear leaders in the tech that threatens fossil fuels around the globe.

Making it seem like a failure is a good way to slow down that transition in other countries too.

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