The question seeks to understand the accuracy of social scientists in making predictions, likely in the context of social, economic, or political phenomena.
Synthesized Answer
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Social scientists' ability to forecast varies widely depending on the specific domain, methodology, and context. Research has shown that experts in social sciences, such as economists and political scientists, often perform only slightly better than chance or simple statistical models in predicting outcomes. However, some studies have identified certain conditions under which expert forecasts are more accurate, such as when experts have deep domain knowledge and use structured forecasting methods.
Key Takeaways
Expert forecasts in social sciences are often only marginally better than simple statistical models or chance.
Domain-specific knowledge and structured forecasting methods can improve the accuracy of expert predictions.
The complexity and uncertainty of social phenomena can limit the accuracy of forecasting.
[This paper] show[s] that forecasters, on average, over-estimate treatment effects; however, the average forecast is quite predictive of the actual treatment effect.