How do you forecast revenue with small datasets?

Question

I’m trying to learn how founders and sales leaders forecast revenue at $2M–$15M ARR when the dataset is small and the process is still forming. Stage-weighted pipeline and confidence scoring seem to produce consistent failure modes. If you have a forecasting approach that has worked at this stage, I’d love details.

HackerNews · Accepted Answer

Forecasting revenue with small datasets requires a combination of qualitative and quantitative approaches. At the $2M-$15M ARR stage, it's essential to focus on the sales process and pipeline management. One effective approach is to track key buyer actions and milestones, such as meetings, security reviews, and next-step dates, to gauge the likelihood of closing deals. Defining clear stages and criteria for progression can also help to improve forecasting accuracy.

How do you forecast revenue with small datasets?

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