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Are there other sites that can suggest how much of an issue it is, and how much flight plan tweaking could improve this.
Remember kids a 1° C rise in temperature can mean 7% more water vapour in the air, and with water vapour being a greenhouse gas itself this can cause heating and holding yet more water.
I guess the map is posted today due to this recent video (worth a watch): https://youtu.be/QoOVqQ5sa08?si=sGK9Q9tUoFOW1QZg
Let me ask you and maybe the wider HN crowd, if you wanted to affect the day-to-day weather what methods would you use? If you wanted to heat select portions of the atmosphere how would you do that? If you wanted to nucleate ice crystals to cause insanely large hail how would you do it? If you wanted to conduct weather warfare against another nation state by causing drought or excessive rainfall how would you do it? If you wanted to intensify a storm or disrupt the eyewall of a hurricane how would you accomplish it? If you wanted to punish a populace or make them stay home on election day what known weather modification methods are at your disposal?
I am just so embarrassed on behalf of people who still think this doesn't exist and is all some conspiracy without any basis. Hey guess what, they do inject aluminium, barium and strontium into exhaust streams. They do aim radar at doped sections of the sky to direct and lift air columns. They do blast microwaves at clouds. They have admittedly attacked nations with altered weather systems like in Operation Popeye. You cannot look at any strange weather system and say with certainty that it isn't the result of tampering because of these clandestine activities and technologies. Forgive us for not wanting to breathe in strontium micro-particulates or have aluminium fall into our soil because you find it a little embarrassing that the contrails aren't always just water vapor and don't seem to disintegrate for some reason any more.
[1]https://www.thesiriusreport.com/technology/list-us-patents-r... [2]http://globalskywatch.com/chemtrails/ubbthreads.php?ubb=show...
Have the decency to reply if you downvote.
Downvoted for this, at the very least, and also downvoted for the fact you think you're entitled to an explanation even with your tone.
I agree with GP, who echoed my sentiments exactly.
So yeah, I'll be a totalitarian censor against people who put down others while expressing their opinions.
They also requested that people explain their downvotes, so I did, but I also find it objectionable to say something like "I'm embarrassed for you, but if you downvote me, you owe me an explanation." That's a one way street for respect.
There's plenty of basis for thinking it's uninformed or intellectually dishonest conspiracy mongering.
And please don't rant at HN.
I was at a presentation in Croatia recently about weather modification in Yugoslavia. This is considered public knowledge there. When Yugoslavia fell apart, Croatia was no longer permitted to engage in weather modification.
The main method discussed was the use of small rockets.
Why nuclear blasts - that also introduce lots of particles in atmosphere cause a cooling effect - "nuclear winter"?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electromagnetic_absorption_by_...
But even with that the amount of warming this continuous effect creates is quite small and negligible compared to greenhouse gas warming and isn’t really worth talking about.
It’s totally ok to be skeptical of the claims. I can’t make a judgement on them as I know even less than you might. But that’s not a reason to doubt that human’s environment impact matters and that maybe part of the solution is for those of us with access to 2day delivery for everything and cheap flights live a teeny bit more like those who don’t.
I'm currently on dating apps and the amount of people who define their personalities by their travel habits is staggering.
then you look at most of their profiles and it's the same handful of tourist photos or them paying to take a photo, basically. travel is just another status symbol thing to a lot of people. they do the same things they see on social media. it's weird. it's just another way of showing how much money you can spend on frivolous* stuff.
*not saying travel is frivolous. I'm saying the modern stereotypical version of it is very conforming and repetitive.
By the way, I have not flown for over a decade. I can't stand airports...
As a bonus consideration it might be better if they were made of soot, it would be ugly but water vapor is a tremendous greenhouse gas, several times as potent as CO2, And related, we worked hard to get sulfur out of our fuels but sulfur dioxide turns out to be a negative greenhouse gas, it has a net cooling effect, I am not saying we should deliberately add sulfur back in, the downsides are too great, but it is an interesting bit of irony.
The guide presented by the map gives a very good explanation on how contrail formation can be mitigating by altering the course of flights to reduce the formation in areas where it will have the most impact. This is based on a recent study that showed contrail avoidance could be one of the most cost-effective methods of reducing warming that we know of.
https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2634-4505/ad310c
Simon Clark did a good video on this recently:
Estimating radiative forcing is about measuring relative to a baseline. Here, the baseline is a world with no contrails. When you introduce contrails, you're introducing cloudy volumes predominantly made of ice crystals and occurring very high in the atmosphere. On the balance, these clouds re-emit more long-wave radiation (e.g. what' emitted by the Earth's surface) than they allow to escape the atmosphere.
Hence, these clouds have a small but positive net radiative forcing - meaning that aviation, by the way it leads to contrail formation, has at least this small radiative forcing on climate.
> As any object traveling through the atmosphere at that altitude, disrupting air, is going to form condensation and cloud trails. The more moisture in the atmosphere, the more trails.
Actually - it won't. We rigorously started studying contrail formation back in WWII when meteorologists tried to anticipate when bomber flights returning from mainland Europe might induce contrails and leave a path for intercept fighters to follow and shoot them down. As the science and understanding of vertical atmosphere thermodynamic structure and cloud microphysical structure has advanced in the ensuing 80 years, we have a much better understanding of when contrails are likely to form, versus when they aren't.
But don't take my word for it. Look up at the sky any time you hear an aircraft - sometimes you'll see a contrail, sometimes you won't. Contrails aren't a given when a jet flies high in the atmosphere.
(that's actually the entire basis for the Contrails/DeepMind team's work - avoid areas where contrails _are_ likely to form, to avoid that radiative forcing from the first part of this comment)
> Are we suggesting changing flight routes and wasting more fuel (which pollutes more) to protect the ground from these 0.0000001% reduction in light cloud trails? Seriously. I want to know the science behind how this plays out.
The science is pretty well developed at this point. You'd probably hit it in an undergraduate-level physical meteorology class. The missing detail that the Contrails team helped solve was improving forecasts of the key parameters involved here from weather models.
The whole point is that this is _another_ lever that flight planners could use to optimize their route planning. It's just one factor. It has trade-offs - although those trade-offs aren't always net negative (e.g. it's not a given that the "less contrail-y" route is also the "more fuel burn-y" one).
There are many different avenues you could pursue to estimate this, with different degrees of complexity and they all boil down to a radiative transfer calculation. You could start with an idealized, single-column model using a very simple approximation like a 2-stream approach, crudely parameterizing how a few bulk properties of a cloud in the column would influence the estimate of radiative balance at the top of the atmosphere. Such a model would let you explore a huge variety of factors.
To get more into the world of "real climate", you'd eventually scale up to an atmosphere model with a more complex 3D radiative transfer scheme, probably with more complex cloud microphysical representation and interactions with radiation. This still lets you do idealized experiments.
The next step up, you'd do what the DeepMind and Contrails teams have done, which is to use a standard Earth System Model ("climate model"). That just builds the complexity, and allows you to study realistic scenarios with counterfactuals (e.g. with or without additional contrail formation due to aviation). It's still going to be parameterized in some sense.
Ultimately, we'd look at real-world data top-of-atmosphere radiative estimates, which we conveniently measure from a variety of satellites (CERES would be the most well-known one). The problem is that we can't study the counter-factual very easily in the real world. We get a few isolated cases (like the aviation pause over CONUS after 9/11, or the global decrease in aviation during COVID), but there's so much inherent noise (from weather) that it's hard to infer any causality; you'd likely end up using that climate model from the last part to simulate the counterfactual in a weather scenario nudged to reproduce the real-world observations you have.
This would make a great Masters thesis, or maybe a slice of a PhD, but it's not much more complex than that.
> As for contrails, if they're likely to form in certain areas and not others, what's that coefficient? is it the moisture content? is it the jet fuel mixture? Since you say the Contrails program helps predict when these might occur, is that data being used to alter cruise paths?
It's the ambient thermodynamic and kinematic parameters. Namely, background water vapor and temperature, combined with local kinetic energy in the form of turbulence that you need to drive very local supersaturation. Given those parameters, different distributions of gases and particulates emitted from a jet engine may be more or less effective at nucleating ice - if the conditions are even right to do so.
It's worth pointing out that it's _very_ hard to capture these background conditions in weather models, hence why a major part of the DeepMind/Contrails project have been to use machine learning to try to constrain background circulation patterns most consistent with contrail develop as evidenced by high-resolution remote sensing and imagery. Some of the earliest work they did was to use these types of tools to generate data that allow us to better parameterize contrail formation in numerical weather/climate models, which is why they're able to turn this into a predictive and actionable problem.
Otherwise, there's an 80-year literature on this topic. I encourage you to read it. Kärcher's review paper in Nature in 2018 is a good starting point (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04068-0).
> Any route (with the exception of the SIDS and STARS) is charted across airways to the most direct route possible. Right?
I'm not an expert in aviation route planning, but from personal experience I know that many other factors come into play with routing (namely avoiding weather, limiting time spent extremely remote / far away from airport or other infrastructure, traffic / network congestion, etc).
See this article: https://www.technologyreview.com/2024/03/12/1089620/how-rero...
Here are some highlights, in case the paywall is a problem for some.
First, how much do contrails matter?
> This cirrus-forming phenomenon could account for around 35% of aviation’s total contribution to climate change—or about 1% to 2% of overall global warming, according to some estimates
> A small fraction of overall flights, between 2% and 10%, create about 80% of the contrails. So the growing hope is that simply rerouting those flights could significantly reduce the effect, presenting a potentially high leverage, low cost and fast way of easing warming.
Breakthrough Energy, Google Research, and American Airlines conducted a test:
> They employed satellite imagery, weather data, software models, and AI prediction tools to steer pilots over or under areas where their planes would be likely to produce contrails. American Airlines used these tools in 70 test flights over six months, and subsequent satellite data indicated that they reduced the total length of contrails by 54%, relative to flights that weren’t rerouted
Avoiding the contrail prone regions would use more fuel, so the question is how much would it cost to avoid those regions?
> A new study published in Environmental Research: Infrastructure and Sustainability explored this issue by coupling commercial tools for optimizing flight trajectories with models that simulated nearly 85,000 American Airlines flights, both domestic and international, under various weather conditions last summer and this winter.
> In those simulations, the researchers found that reducing the warming effect of contrails by 73% increased fuel costs by just 0.11% and overall costs by 0.08%, when averaged across those tens of thousands of flights. (Only about 14% of the flights needed to be adjusted to avoid forming warming contrails in the simulations.)
There are also a couple of other factors to consider, such as:
> There are also some thorny complications that still need to be resolved, like the fact that cirrus clouds can also reduce warming by reflecting away short-wave radiation from the sun.
> The loss of this cooling effect would have to be tallied into any calculation of the net benefit—or, perhaps, avoided. For instance, Shapiro says the initial strategy might be to reroute flights only during the early evening and night, which would eliminate the sunlight-reflecting complication.
Another one is the the increased fuel will add to CO2 to the atmosphere. CO2 stays in the atmosphere a lot longer than water, so it is possible that reducing contrails would be a net positive in the short term but a net negative over the long term.
"The Advanced Research and Innovation Agency (ARIA) - a government backed body - is funding nearly £60m that could allow real-world experiments, including in the UK.
"As part of the Exploring Climate Cooling programme, projects in Solar Radiation Modification (SRM) will involve trying to thicken Arctic sea ice and make clouds more reflective." https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/c5ygydeqq08o
Paper on how "Low-Altitude High-Latitude Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Is Feasible With Existing Aircraft" https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EF00...
People who believe in chemtrails need to prove that the it’s being done, is being done at industrial scale (not just a few one off experiments), and that this is harmful to human health or the environment.
Ocean fertilization to soak up CO2 has been extensively studied and in that case there are documented experiments, but we are not doing it at scale… mostly because nobody wants to pay for it and because we are not 100% sure the CO2 will actually be sequestered. There’s also some concern about side effects on ocean ecosystems.
A lot of things get studied.
Of course the real conspiracy I keep hearing is that this is some kind of mind control thing. Why? Even if that were possible, why bother when you can mesmerize humans at scale with mindless slop scrollers like TikTok and program them like a zombie army. Much cheaper and done 100% in the open.
I can't see this being the answer though. Maybe I'm wrong, but it wouldn't be the first time environmental measures have proven destructive. Some of the most invasive pests have been brought in to control a less invasive ones e.g. cane toads in Australia. The road to Hell is paved with good intentions.
Careful. If you continue down this road, what you will discover is:
* the "crazy conspiracy theorist" were right all along, as is often the case.
* the people surrounding you, whom you previously believed to be sane, rational, intelligent people, are nothing but programmed drones, who regurgitate exactly what they are programmed to believe with zero ability to originate any kind of original thought.
* The weather modification technology has been in active use for decades. It was apparently based on Tesla's research. The earliest experiments began just after the invention of aviation. By WW2 it was in full swing, being used as a weapon of war.
* The US government and other allied entities now operate a giant fleet of automated aircraft, everything from small jets up to decommissioned old airlines, which fly in grid patterns dispersing their weather modification chemicals. I have captured many pictures and video of all this happening over my home in rural Alabama. I've seen some crazy things, like on two instances a commercial aircraft being refuelled in mid-air by a military aircraft.
* A key element of the system is based on very low frequency radio waves, which is obvious when you look at some of these cloud patterns where it's like a giant washboard pattern in the sky. One could measure from peak to peak in these cloud "waves" and determine the wavelength of whatever RF signal is used. I read one person who believe the Doppler radars are involved, as they seem to have gigantic power cables for their given nominal power output.
* However the system works, it's being used to do things like generate and steer hurricanes, creating natural disasters that always then get blamed on "global warming."
* "Global warming" is itself a diabolical plot to gain complete control and regulation over the world's energy consumption. Just wait until these people "suddenly discover" that humans exhale CO2 every time they breathe. What do you suppose happens next?
* The Matrix wasn't a work of fiction; it was a close analogy to the times we are living in. Remember how Neo escaped the Matrix (which was a big lie) only to find the actual real world is a bombed out hellscape? You are here.
Inb4 the disinformation agents tell me I'm wrong, stupid, not 150 IQ, etc.
I would however recommend testing it on a slower internet connection and a lower end device. Because I was spending 90% of my time in the "loading data" phases, and once the intro was done, the thing ran at one frame per second and I was not able to use it. (I have 5G and I bought my phone last year.)
We're in the process of refactoring the models that support these visualizations, so we hope to make it more performant in the near future. Hopefully end of this year.
If the future of aviation is similar flight densities everywhere then people might actually begin to care about this topic.
We are seeking a high level full stack engineer to join the team to work on infrastructure for this and other efforts. Please reach out if interested - info@contrails.org
https://gist.github.com/pupdogg/4e796ed1bb0d24338a3f6523e404...
Examples:
1. System and Method for Irradiation of Planet Surface Areas
2. Method and Apparatus for Altering a Region in the Earth’s Atmosphere, Ionosphere, and/or Magnetosphere
3. Broadcast Dissemination of Trace Quantities of Biologically Active Chemicals
4. Method and Apparatus for Creating an Artificial Electron Cyclotron Heating Region of Plasma
5. Method and Apparatus for Triggering a Substantial Change in Earth Characteristics and Measuring Earth Changes
6. Planetary Weather Modification SystemBut are you saying none of those patents are even indirectly related to publicly documented programs like:
1. Operation Sea-Spray (1950)
2. Operation LAC (late 1950s–60s)
3. Operation Dew (ZnCdS tests)
Including aspects like water pollution and health risks would add significant value to this already impressive initiative.
Thank you for sharing!
We are seeking a high level full stack engineer to join the team to work on infrastructure for this and other efforts. Please reach out if interested - info@contrails.org
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