Uncle Sam Shouldn't Own Intel Stock
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The article argues that the US government should not own Intel stock after providing funding, sparking a debate on government involvement in private companies and the implications for national security and the economy.
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https://pastebin.com/raw/vL07QfVi
Covered yesterday on YC.[1]
[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44989773
> Covered yesterday on YC.[1]
> [1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44989773
The post from yesterday was news; this is commentary, as in, not a dupe.
To your point, it's arguably closer to state capitalism, which may be a distinction without a difference if you paint it with the same brush as socialism, but it's one worth mentioning.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State_capitalism
The name of the (sub)site we're posting on is HN; YC is the host. :P
Eventually those were privatized. Now, the railroads are being socialized again.
China is trying to beat US at its own game. US (or at least its current political leader) is trying to beat Russia at its own game. Russia is trying to remain relevant. Russia is the muscle, China is the finance.
China needs Russia just like Google (Chrome) needs Firefox. Without Russia around, China would get all of the attention instead. Without Firefox existing, Google would have no counter to antitrust allegations in the web browser space.
Anything you can do, I can do better. I can do anything better than you.
No, not like that!
It's like that Spider-Man meme where everyone is Spider-Man pointing their fingers at each other. All the power structures are mirroring each other. It's all kayfabe, all the time. Everything is wrestling.
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/27/magazine/is-everything-wr... | https://archive.is/muwUp
The chip fab industry builds billion dollar bespoke superfund sites, and they're paid for the privilege.
https://www.jstor.org/stable/j.ctv65swcp.5 | https://doi.org/10.2307/j.ctv65swcp.5
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Superfund
The US government doesn't need leverage. It just needs an act of Congress. Corporations are convenient fictions that exist at the pleasure of our legal system, which can be changed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/State-owned_enterprises_of_the...
This is not likely.
The state could represent interests like "keeping high-paid jobs on-shore" or "avoid legal/labour/environmental standard arbitrage" that regular investors won't vote for.
US federal government is the biggest player in healthcare, by far. 32% of all healthcare spending is Federal government dollars. They have plenty of leverage. Bad if they use it, but they have it.
$900+ billion in Medicare yearly $600+ billion in Medicaid yearly
What would the value add for either party be?
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Famine,_Affluence,_and_Moralit...
That’s a fair point. I agree that my phrasing glosses over a bit of nuance. The political capital needed to reform the insurance companies would be hard to wrangle for anyone else but Trump, was my point. The government in many states regulates the insurance industry as far as rate increases and so on, so I’m sure they can apply pressure in many ways. I just don’t think that the government would do so, but they could in theory. I’m not sure they would in practice, but you were right to call me out.
Now only companies are left to pick up the bill, because a republican administration won't ever consider doing it.
I still wonder when CEOs will realize that lack of education and lack of healthcare will eventually land at their doorsteps because they won't have immigrant workforces anymore that can compensate for it.
As a high-income earner I used to be in favor of privatizing healthcare here in Italy/Europe.
I've always seen the public healthcare system wasteful and inefficient. Our healthcare system really is in a terrible spot.
Then few years ago, a very close friend of mine, had to give birth to her child. She had chosen one of the most expensive hospitals in the region, where there would be a huge staff all for her, not that crappy public service she would get.
Then tragedy struck: in all the luxury and care she was receiving, her newborn had huge problems staying alive, and died of respiratory issues few minutes after birth.
A very preventable death the autopsy stated moreover if she was in an appropriate public hospital.
Why? Because larger public hospitals have all a newborn reanimation unit with trained staff exactly for these kind of emergencies. Private ones? They are virtually non existent, doesn't matter the country or budget, no private hospital can afford such an expensive unit that requires extremely specific training and equipment but gets to act rarely if ever. So they don't exist in those contextes.
Since then I realized how naive I was: private healthcare just cannot justify investing in a huge amount of treatments that are a financial disaster for the private clinic/hospital. They just can't.
Thus, at the end of the day, you don't really want private healthcare that has to choose what to provide on a $ basis, you just don't. You want a as comprehensive and available public service that needs the right amount of money and incentives to work properly.
I don't know how can it be achieved, but you really don't want to be that father/mother, sister, friend or patient that cannot access an important procedure because it makes no financial sense to offer it.
Have you considered that they don't care? They can make a better profit now, so why worry about what is happening 5 to 10 years down the line?
If you say 'I like Capitalism', a significant minority will hear 'I love US imperialism and hate nature', despite that almost certainly not being what you meant. Similarly, if you say 'I like Communism', many hear 'I love dictators, gulags, 5 year plans and famine'.
A word of advice: if you actually want to have valuable political conversations with people, don't start by identifying yourself with ideology that's arguably responsible for various atrocities and millions of deaths.
So neither capitalism nor communism? What's left, anarchism? I guess they haven't killed that many people.
Talk about policies and their effects, not about what bucket you might put them (and yourself) in.
Oh and if you like reforms, then you are anti-revolutionary, which means you are reactionary, which means you are a fascist. Yep, that's the standard communist logic.
Moving on from that, you make a good point that it may be the best compromise if the original deal is off the table. That said, in my eyes the implementation could be better. On both a practical and ideological level, I think it would behoove the dealmakers to lay out clear exit conditions. That could look something like anything from signing a covenant with Intel to freeze dividends and corporate buybacks and pay down debt (which is dangerously high for them currently), and then once the corporate balance sheet gets to a safer level, the US gov could run a public auction for the equity once that strike level is hit. I'm sure they could come up with something palatable. What's unexcusable is to apparently enter into a seemingly permanent zone of CCP-style state corporate capitalism without clearly laying out what that means for America going forwards. As an average citizen, I certainly have questions about the precedents being set, and to me it just looks haphazard and off-the-cuff.
The only absurd here is to think republicans care about anything other than power . Doesn't matter what they did or said yesterday, what matters is what can they say and do today to remain in power and enable their deep pocketed donors to make more money and gain more power.
People really have to stop thinking there's anything there, there's nothing, its all about acquiring and using power. Trying to come up with ideological reasons as to why they do this or that is useless.
Right, but it's an absurd juxtaposition when taken at face value none the less. I agree with what you said, but my point was more about other possible structures for the deal rather than political conclusions. I was attempting to brush aside the political considerations and take a somewhat tabula rasa approach, not spur a partisan political conversation, which clearly I failed at by mentioning the absurdity in messaging.
https://www.nytimes.com/2008/12/20/business/20auto.html
Perhaps I should have nixed the political aside at the top. Wasn't my intent to bring that to HN.
The GOP overthrew its leadership in 2016 and a different faction took control of the party. The GOP started out as an economically interventionist party: https://www.journalofthecivilwarera.org/2017/04/gops-civil-w.... Then it went through a libertarian phase in the mid 20th century. Now its back to an economically interventionist party.
Also consider: Who is the $10 billion coming from? Because it's not Intel. Intel just prints the shares out of thin air. This is Trump stealing $10 billion directly from Intel's shareholders, who get nothing in return because Trump is legally required to disburse the CHIPS Act money.
A person invests in a stock, hopes it goes up, and makes a profit (or loss) when they sell. That money isn't real until a sale occurs.
A government gives a grant and gets a return tomorrow and every single day of the company's existence as well as every single day each employee exists (even if the company doesn't). If a company exists, it pays corporate taxes. If that company has employees (as every company does), it pays payroll taxes. If that company has employees, they pay income taxes and various forms of consumption taxes.
IDK why we act like a grant is akin to lighting money on fire. Governments don't give out grants for nothing. They're still benefiting from it. Sure, the vehicles for return are different from a standard investment but also a government isn't a person. Well I should take that last part back. A government is a person in an autocracy (monarchy/dictatorship/theocracy/etc), but that shouldn't even be on the table.
I wish that were so.
It's also just crazy to see nationalization being packaged as capitalism. Those screaming for privatization while nationalizing. It's not even being done covertly either
It was never a nothing-in-return agreement, that is fiction.[0]
[0] “Biden to require chips companies winning subsidies to share excess profits” >> https://www.reuters.com/technology/us-require-companies-winn...
I mean I agree with you but even that article is talking about how it's not a free handout. It never could have been. A government could hand out money unconditionally and they'd still get a return as long as taxes exist. Intel's (or any company's) success results in them paying more taxes. Not just corporate taxes either.
Seems like a bad combination to me, a net positive tax payer.
Everyone benefits from more medicine, weapons, food, etc.
>> Everyone benefits from more medicine, weapons, food, etc.
Nvidia/AMD offer 15% profits
Intel offers 10% share
I think, as a TV star, Trump enjoys all the circus. And everyone else is playing along so it's fun.
Intel is strategically important. As nice as it is to pretend that the whole world plays by the same rules, that the free market exists everywhere and that we'll never to to war, there are bad actors and the US (rest of the collective West as well) need to ensure that we won't be completely crippled if China attacks a single island off their coast...
That and when most governments "nationalise" corporations they seize them and don't give the owners/shareholders anything.
https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1748/...
And it's the standard refrain: if this money helps Intel get back on its feet, the stock price will go up, presumably to the point dilution won't matter.
But who cares, really? If it's true that Intel is actually strategically important to the US, the shareholders are irrelevant if need be. It's not a great outcome, sure, but Intel has been mismanaged for a long time, and investors should have known the risks of investing in a company like that.
Versus in most nationalisation events their shares simply get taken away or diluted to pennies.
First you get the money, then you get the power.
Money is fungible, but power isn't. Arguably, taking away my power is an affront to my human rights. Taking my money is an affront, but it never was my money to begin with, as I don't control the value or creation of it. My rights are inalienable.
Fab capability on US soil is strategically important. Intel is one of many possible routes to that.
Other examples:
> Since the 1950s, the federal government has stepped in as a backstop for railroads, farm credit, airlines (twice), automotive companies, savings and loan companies, banks, and farmers.
Every situation has its own idiosyncrasies, but in each, the federal government intervened to stabilize a critical industry, avoiding systemic collapse that surely would have left the average taxpayer much worse off. In some instances, the treasury guaranteed loans, meaning that creditors would not suffer if the relevant industry could not generate sufficient revenue to pay back the loans, leading to less onerous interest rates.
A second option was that the government would provide loans at relatively low interest rates to ensure that industries remained solvent.
In a third option, the United States Treasury would take an ownership stake in some of these companies in what amounts to an “at-the-market” offering, in which the companies involved issue more shares at their current market price to the government in exchange for cash to continue business operations.
https://chicagopolicyreview.org/2022/08/23/piece-of-the-acti...
This means the market believes they have a path to bankruptcy. Since markets are forward looking, how close it is to bankruptcy does not matter too much. In this case they needed money and the government provided a relatively low amount for a pretty significant stake in the company.
The reality is any government (USG included) getting 10% share ownership in a company is ... barely news. The more interesting news (or speculation) is whether this is a smart move or not.
Major news nevertheless.
Intel the advanced IC manufacturer is worth effectively nothing right now.
If they can prove a successful advanced manufacturing process and start making chips on it that will likely reverse fairly quickly, but it's been a decade since they held fab leadership.
No one will give Intel real money for the advanced fabs, as they are worthless right now. I suspect that's probably the main thing holding Intel back from doing that - they can't get a decent price on the fabs, and just spinning them out directly would probably lead to a fairly immediate failure without Intel's CPU design division funding development without immediate expectation of returns.
If one was a gambling man (with a good helping of pride), you keep the fabs with Intel (where the CPU design division is printing money) and subsidise the fabs and hope they finally stick the landing and start making half-decent chips again.
If they split, it's likely the fab side of the business will need a large infusion of cash in order to catch up (be it in the form of a government bailout or something else), or then they have to accept becoming a second-rate player. For which there is still a large market, so they might actually do decent-ish there. But that pretty much leaves TSMC in a monopoly position.
>The Canada Development Corporation was a Canadian corporation, based in Toronto, created and partly owned by the federal government and charged with developing and maintaining Canadian-controlled companies in the private sector through a mixture of public and private investment. It was technically not a crown corporation as it was intended to generate a profit and was created with the intention that, eventually, the government would own no more than 10% of its holdings; it did not require approvals of the Governor-in-Council for its activities and did not report to parliament. Its objectives and capitalization, however, were set out by parliament and any changes to its objects decided upon by the Board of Directors had to be approved by parliament.
The CDC was created as a result of Walter Gordon's Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects, and the 1968 Watkins Report commissioned by Gordon, in an attempt to redress the problem of foreign ownership in the Canadian economy by stimulating the development of Canadian owned corporations, particularly in the field of natural resources and industry
About 31,000 private shareholders invested in the corporation. An early purchase of the corporation was Connaught Laboratories, the original manufacturer of insulin.
Major investments owned by the CDC included holdings in petroleum, mines and petrochemicals including Polymer Corporation, an asset transferred to it by the Canadian government. By 1982 the Canadian government had a 58% stake in the Savin Corporation.
In 1986 the Corporation was dismantled as part of the Mulroney government's program of privatization.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canada_Development_Corporation
I believe they even did a run of $10 celebrating it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heavy_Press_Program
A lot of USA investment in industry falls under defense spending. Canada doesn't spend nearly as much on defense, so has to be creative on how to cultivate domestic industry.
But in reality, they gave up on R&D, Missed Apple mobile chips and then put a lot of MBAs in top leadership positions to make their financial schemes work. Those schemes did not work and they were left without technical leadership. When they got the tech leadership, the board just gave up and fired him and brought in a chop shop CEO to part intel out.
For some reason, the US admin thinks this is a good buy. You probably would too, if you bankrupted multiple casinos.
Intel is going the way of SunBeam, Sears and Toys r Us. The board failed to stop that. And failure attracts more failure.
Has it ever worked?
We can blame the MBAs, but we really should see how we can propose a better system. And then convince people of that.
Okay okay, I give up already.
Long term? No. But what Westerner cares about long term?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m7PVZixO35c
New computers aren't as much faster as benchmarks would lead you to believe. If your code relies on unpredictable branches, dependept memory accesses in a tight loop, or very tight feedback loops inside computations, new CPUs won't have that much of an edge.
It's really cool they you get to meet people like you here in the comments :)
However I think the video raises an interesting point - I imagine you're an expert on modern CPU optimization, and spend quite a bit of time thinking about cache access patterns, exposing instruction-level parallelism to the CPU and other such gory bits without which your code wouldn't be running as fast on modern CPUs.
Most of us regular folks however don't really write code like that, and I think for that sort of code, I don't think modern CPUs run as much faster than an ancient Core 2 Duo, as benchmarks would suggest, but we can expect results somewhat more like in the video I linked.
Congrats on your work getting used in Cinebench, but I can't help but ask you - what's your thoughts on your work getting used to basically benchmark every CPU under the sun by tech reviewers, who then make recommendations on whether to buy that CPU or another one. Looping back to the previous point, I think your code has quite likely very different performance characteristics than the sort of generic stuff most people end up running, and this sort of benchmarking creates an incentive for manufacturers to crank out CPUs that are good at running hyper-optimized path tracing code, while ignoring real-world performance. What are your thoughts on that?
The random acquisitions and board leadership didn't help intel but r&d had plenty of money poured in
OTOH, if TSMC makes a couple bad bets in a row, all their 500 clients will be in deep trouble.
How do you know it?
Having to do any kind of 2025 type of work on it would be testing my patience to the extremes because all SW and media has grown in size and/or complexity(AV1 encoding, etc) requiring faster CPU, GPU, storage and RAM for the optimum experience. The only things that run fast on it are period accurate Linux 2.6 and Windows XP with websites form 2008, but I wouldn't call that modern computing.
Computers have gotten night and day faster and especially more efficient since 2008, pretending otherwise would be in bad faith.
The current lowest speced Mac can absolutely dominate my previous 2012 2x20c ivy bridge era Xeon tower. And on top of that, the power and heat are drastically less with the new machine.
The only reason a system of this era even kept up is the years Intel just didn’t do anything that was that much better and because of ram and pci express expansion which allowed for upgraded faster storage and faster gpus.
These days I can get better performance in a system that I can hold in my palm (Apple m4, amd ryzen ai 9) that doesn’t produce enough heat to keep my entire room toasty in the winter.
Itanium was a flop from bad business decisions IIRC. Note too that x86-64 was developed by AMD, and Intel licensed it from them.
Itanium was a flop from a technical standpoint but not from a business one. Intel spent roughly a gigabuck and effectively scared every competitor out the pool except for IBM and AMD.
Intel is suffering because their old fab folks all retired, and no young, smart engineer over the last 20 years wanted to work for any semiconductor company let alone Intel.
Even without the Itanium, the economies of scale in the x86(-64) world would have driven the RISC vendors out of the game.
The false information about the future of Itanium scared almost all of them to surrender, about in the same way as the fictional Strategic Defense Initiative had scared the Russians.
My quick 5 cents for what might have happened in the interim:
- Without a separate high-end offering in the form of the Itanium, Intel is quicker to adopt x86-64, and produce high-end server chips with extra RAS etc. features.
- POWER and SPARC, being the last holdouts in the RISC market in our actual timeline and outliving Itanium, would likely not have been affected much wrt. Itanium existing or not.
- SGI with MIPS would likely have been the first one to fold. Would SGI have pivoted to x86-64 & Linux sooner than they historically did, or would the company have gone bankrupt first?
- HP/Compaq with PA-RISC and Alpha is perhaps the most interesting question. HP did a lot of early VLIW/EPIC research with an eye towards developing a successor to PA-RISC. Would they have thrown that R&D away and selected to focus on either PA-RISC or Alpha after failing to secure Intel as a partner in the Itanium? Or would they have tried to develop something Itanium-like without Intel?
Another interesting what-if, if Itanium didn't exist, would instead 3rd-party manufacturing of high end chips (similar to TSMC today) have been developed sooner than historical? Keeping in mind that a large reason for the Itanium was accessing the semi process R&D and chip manufacturing prowess of Intel, as the thinking at the time was that tight (vertical!) integration of the chip design and manufacturing was a requirement for the highest end CPU's. And it was the spiraling costs and volume required of chip manufacturing that was the boat anchor around the necks of the RISC vendors moreso than the chip design itself.
1. IBM picked the 8088 for the PC platform. This was part luck, part Motorola being too slow to market with the 68k.
2. The first PC with an 80386 was made by Compaq, not IBM.
3. A big part of what held OS/2 1.x back was IBM insisting on it working with the 80286, which made properly supporting DOS programs challenging. OS/2 2.0 came out 6 years after the first 386 based machine from Compaq.
Also Texas didn’t have a second source for the TMS9900.
We definitely live in the worst possible timeline.
You must be missing something.
Intel got no bailout. The government demanded 10% of the company for financial grants that Intel already received, largely under the Biden administration, under vehicles like the CHIPS act (you know -- the massively successful policy that is the actual reason that a bunch of latest tech chip plants are being built in the US). It's an absolutely bizarre situation, and the only reason Intel would even go along with it is that this administration operates like an extortion racket and would somehow cripple the company otherwise.
So in effect, unless the next administration runs on punishing these abuses and actually follows through, may as well be legal.
Governments aren't people. If I gift you money, that money doesn't come back to me. But if a government gifts someone money, it makes its way back. As long as that money gets spent, there's returns. Even if you die, and even if you don't have that $14m for the death tax, that money still pays dividends back.
The only way it doesn't is if the economy crumbles or that money is taken out of the entire economy (which is much harder to do considering the dollar being the current global currency). So basically you need to light it on fire.
You can do things to slow that flow but it does come back. A low interest loan is just increasing that flow and this is why a negative interest rate can still generate a return. A company can fail and there'd still be returns through taxes in the mean time. The money doesn't just evaporate.
I think a lot conversations about money get weird because we over generalize what money means, applying money's context for an average person more broadly. But money has a very different context when you're talking about governments, corporations, or even billionaires (due to the shear amount). Nor are those examples the same either.
In this case I think it matters. The government already has a stake in Intel, and in all companies. Shares only decrease the pie available to the public while increases the ability for government official to do insider trading and increases nationalization.
Like, for example, the government could give me a few billion bucks and everything you said would still be correct. I would also spend it, etc. etc.
You as a company? Sure, you can spend a few billion.
What does this have to do with the comment I responded to? Who knows[0]
[0] https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BknZGQoCFt4
They intervened to maintain the status quo. Industries are neither stable or unstable for a long period of time without external influences forcing that outcome. Short term turbulence is to be expected and is beneficial for the market as a whole.
They destroy markets and then lie to your face about it.
> industries remained solvent.
How does an _industry_ become insolvent? Only when it's nearly fully monopolized and when there is no difference between an industry and a single entity. This is where we are currently.
> more shares at their current market price to the government in exchange for cash to continue business operations.
Couldn't they just offer those shares to _any investor at all_? Why is the government special here?
> https://chicagopolicyreview.org/2022/08/23/piece-of-the-acti...
Of course. Chicago school thinking. It's infected our country for decades now. Certainly not to the benefit of it's citizens.
Milton Friedman when asked about combating greed.
The human emotion that drives free market capitalism optimally isn't greed, it's competition.
People compete to produce better goods at a lower price to win acclaim and profit.
Greedy people mess that all up by amassing wealth and then using that wealth to change the rules of the game so that they can amass more wealth.
It's like you're arguing that overeating isn't how you gain weight, it's just having an unbalanced caloric ratio.
And your food analogy works against you. If we extend your analogy, profit is like eating, greed is like overeating. Saying profit = greed is like saying every person who eats three meals a day is a glutton. Competition rewards healthy eating -- efficiency, balance, discipline. Greed is scarfing down the pantry and locking the fridge so nobody else can eat.
You're making up your own novel definition of greed there, which is certainly cheating when you're saying Milton Friedman is wrong. He was using greed in a more generally accepted sense, ie, a desire for more than one has right now.
There are a lot of greedy people out there who are scrupulously honest. As far as I can tell, the average greedy person should be modelling scrupulous honesty, advocating fair systems and enforcing rule-following behaviours - that is creating the best environment for acquiring capital and maintaining property rights. Greedy people who white-ant the systems sustaining their capital are generally more stupid than greedy.
No, sorry, it's not only the same emotion, it's the same system and the same rules: if greed is good, why shouldn't one seek network effects, platform effects, last-mile dynamics, vertical and horizontal integration that block competition, engage in FUD and dumping and regulatory capture and so on and so on? The answer that the entire business community and an increasing fraction of the general population seems to agree to is that one should, and this has prevented the sort of gardening that can keep the system actually competitive and working for the people, rather than working for the people on top, which is what it overwhelmingly wants to do when left to its own devices.
The desire to compete is somehow not really the same as the desire to win. This is overtly apparent in things like body building. 99.9% of body builders will never compete in a body building show, let alone win, but enjoy the journey that's mostly full of years of self inflicted pain, occasional injury, and endless dedication - largely for the sake of competition and of course what it does to your body. And that latter part isn't really about showing off or sex or whatever, but simply about pride in what you've accomplished - much in the same way one might take pride in their ability to play chess well, or manage a healthy business.
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