U.s. Military Was Caught Off Guard by Israeli Strike on Qatar
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The US military was caught off guard by an Israeli ballistic missile strike on a Hamas compound in Qatar, sparking debate about the implications for regional stability and US foreign policy.
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btw I don't like Trump or MAGA, but this is what happens when the regime changes. When CCP won civil war and took over China, they had a lot of stupid policies, but decade later they are able to grow China to a super power.
Here’s an idea: maybe don’t bring on Fox News pundits, podcasters, and anti-vaxxers to run your admin. Maybe don’t let the ketamine-fueled, unpredictable billionaire run around indiscriminately cutting federal programs in a legally dubious (at best) fashion. It’s not like these people were thrusted on him.
As for your china example: I’d rather not go through periods of completely manufactured starvation and death. Maybe it’s naive of me to think there’s a better path forward here.
People who think the only way forward is to break everything strike me as the kind of people who don’t understand how bad things can get when everything is broken.
BTW back to the original point. The reason of my suspect is:
- The whole area has heavy US military existence
- UK is doing some military exercise in the same area
I can't imagine Israel just bomb Qatar without messaging these two. The twist is, they messaged to someone, but did not necessarily message the whole US/UK government, and that someone might as well keep the information for himself anyway.
Israel would not tell the US they were about to quite literally blow up our plans. Israel wants to continue their genocide, and we would have warned the other party (since we want our ceasefire).
Yeah good question, and their response is basically saying that they didn't have it turned on ?
> we had no indications and warnings of, because our surveillance and all our attention was not put on [it],
What is the point in it then ? Surely they're there to notify you in real time?
I don't buy this, maybe if I can put my tinfoil hat on, they did know but play dumb because Quatar is such a critical partner in the middle east, and to let Isreal do what they want and launch a strike would be seen very unfavorably by the Qataris.
This way they get to claim "oh we didn't know about it". And expect everyone to just believe that.
Or it is how they say and it feels that those notification systems are not really sufficient.
There is also SBIRS and radars across Saudi Arabia. By far the likeliest scenario is that the US detected the attack and made the choice not to defend Qatar.
You'd need air launched ballistic missiles (which Israel used) to avoid detection by Saudi radars. The Houthis don't have those.
You'd need jets capable of operations over the Red Sea - which the Houthis don't have.
If they did have those things, they'd certainly use them to attack Israel or Riyadh, not Qatar.
You don't need jets to go over the Red Sea either, Houthi cruise missiles can operate over the Red Sea and then change course to hit their targets.
You do if you want ALBMs… the “A” is pretty important for that acronym.
And cruise missiles are not ballistic missiles. Cruise missiles that tracked up the Red Sea and then crossed 1,200km of Saudi Arabia while heading for Qatar would obviously be detected (and likely shot down) by US and Saudi air defenses.
Due to the curvature of the earth, such a cruise missile attack would almost certainly not be detected until it got close to Qatar.
Hence why Israel used ballistic missiles that likely reached 30+ km in altitude over Saudi air space and impacted in less than 15 minutes after launch.
This is why cruise missiles and drones fired from Yemen routinely hit their targets in Israel, in fact that happened just yesterday.
Israel used ballistic missiles in all likelihood because those are the weapons that Qatar needs American help to intercept.
These missiles are not especially fast given the distance they have to cover. They were in the air for 10+ minutes, more than enough time to cross check IR early warning and radar tracks.
I should clarify that it is ENTIRELY possible that you are correct. It is entirely possible the US made a choice to not intercept here. My point is that it is also entirely possible that the US didn’t make a choice. I just don’t see enough clear data to tell. I also think that, even if it was a choice, it was probably more of a split-second decision made by lower-level officers on the ground as it happened, rather than a carefully-considered decision made by national security leadership.
The chain of actions you're describing would have around 10-15 minutes to be executed.
The likelihood that neither THAAD nor any of the Patriot batteries were sufficiently ready to launch is also basically zero.
THAAD has an engagement range of over 100km, so the battery was undoubtedly in range; and it can cue Qatar's own Patriot batteries so they can launch the missiles; I find it hard to believe there were none in Doha.
So, this would not be a split-second decision - there was quite a bit of time given the proposed trajectory. It's very very unlikely the US didn't have the sensors to see the missiles given the intense concentration of long-range ABM radars in the region.
Is it theoretically possible the US legitimately couldn't do anything? Yes. But the odds are overwhelming that the US knew about the strike with minutes to spare before making a decision, and decided not to protect Qatar.
"Oh no, our whole city was destroyed and we couldn't do anything because they changed the tuning on their missiles a day before."
Mega LMAO, the things one reads these days.
The TPQ-36 has a 90º azimuth - it can literally only look in 1 direction. (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AN/TPQ-36_Firefinder_radar)
For fixed threats - e.g. detecting Iranian strikes, the TPS-80 radars are made to be stationary to provide better coverage/resolution of the direction of incoming missiles.
The US uses satellite systems that can detect ground-launched ballistic missiles - and if we're looking with our AEW&C, we can likely see an air-launched one, but we had no reason to be looking for air-launched ballistic missiles over the Red Sea.
Don't take my word for it..
> The Israeli Air Force (IAF) fighters were over the Red Sea when they fired air-launched ballistic missiles, an unnamed U.S. defense official told the Associated Press. In this way, Israeli aircraft didn’t need to enter the airspace of any Middle East country, and the missiles arrived from a direction that the air defenses in Qatar were not focused on looking. The missiles would have also passed over Saudi Arabia at very high altitudes, likely outside the Earth’s atmosphere.
https://www.twz.com/air/new-info-on-how-u-s-military-was-cau...
They just gave Trump a jet so of course the administration will have to play dumb. People/countries will quit paying bribes if they don't get anything for them.
I have a prediction: Antisemitic conspiracy theories are in the pipeline to get mass popular appeal and the wider Jewish communities will suffer greatly of this. It honestly disturbs me deeply because some of the nicest and smartest people I ever met are Jewish and I developed respect and admiration towards their culture. Which puzzles me seeing what's happening in Palestine. Are they captured by cabal or something?
Do they invest so much? Do they help Americans so much? What's there I don't know?
US is giving all possible excuses, just to whitewash Israel's crimes. By now we have seen attacks on:
* Iran
* Qatar
* Lebanon
* Syria
* obviously genocide in Gaza (according to UN, genocide scholars, Amnesty international and many others)
But the straight up committing genocide, then US supporting that despite losing all kind of public support and the support of the allies and then Israel attacking the US allies without consequence to them is what will bring thing together and will make antisemitism mainstream and popular.
Kicking people out, limiting accounts, cutting off finance and services, cancelling people, smearing people won't cut it because this thing is brewing into a perfect storm. Anyone who cares about the Jewish people should make it stop and then make it right. Or maybe this by design to "convince" Jewish minority to move to Israel so that the Israeli political class becomes more powerful?
Or when they pulled out of Afghanistan and the world saw 20 years of occupation unravel within a couple weeks.
Or when they went ahead and destroyed multiple countries without much thought.
At this point, NATO is just a bully with a big stick, whacking people then scurrying back across the pond. As well as a marketplace to force allies to buy and get locked in to the American arms industry.
Did Turkey ask NATO for help?
Do you think that Russia didn't do anything to Turkey because they were afraid of Turkey? Turkey is a powerful country with strong and high quality military but no one is going to defeat Russia without a logistical and military support to match theirs. Ukraine is doing amazing but its thanks to the NATO.
Nah, just local minima/maxima.
Bunch of politicians with different interests, bunch of different polities within and outside Israel with varying agendas, some pro-Israel, some anti-Israel, some merely aligned with Israel for now but don't really care, and the same goes for Palestine.
That plus patriots in every nation close their eyes and cover their ears about crimes by their nation, or make excuses when this is no longer possible.
That's all just boring mundane human nature.
Best I can do is try to stop people hating each other, but that's gonna be tough — and not just for any surviving Palestinians, as the October attack a few years back was proportionally worse for Israel than 9/11 was for the US, and look how long it took Americans to collectively get over that.
This kind of divisive rhetoric helps no one.
It just doesn't make sense to me. This seems well within Israel's own capabilities. Why would they even ask another country for support? Just adds diplomatic complexities and increases the risk of the strike getting leaked.
Maybe conspiracy theories are not welcome here.
For instance, apart from ups and downs here and there, the Arab petro-states have been reliable US allies. Support military actions in the region, notify Western powers of their unruly citizens getting chummy with terrorists, etc. For instance, years before 9/11, Saudi Arabia expelled Bin Laden, voided his citizenship, and notified the US & allies, IIRC.
They have rivers of oil & gas - a cheap, superabundant energy source.
They buy hundreds of billions worth of US weapons. Spend hundreds of billions on Western contractors. Israel, by contrast, buys US weapons with US money. Basically, the US gives it to them for free.
Yet, the US won't even sell their Arab allies top-end stuff. In fact, Congress has a law on the books guaranteeing Israel a Qualitative Military Edge, QME. So, America can't sell the Arabs - some of their best allies - F35s or any of the cool toys, just because Israel says so.
Now, America also seems comfortable with Israel bombing their best allies, destabilizing their entire region, offending the region's Muslim majority, which weakens the legitimacy of all their royal houses.
For what? The chump change AIPAC offers?
What do you think these countries will do when China reaches out and offers them the new J35 stealth fighter? Egypt, which collects lots of US cash to leave Israel alone, is currently trying it out, as I'm sure, many of the other Arab states are.
China's rapid rise means that they can now offer these countries weapons that match top-end Western systems 90-95%, at 30-40% of the cost. And China is a more logical, reliable geopolitical player.
I just don't know. Is this erosion of American power worth it for whatever Israel is offering?
I would also argue that the regimes in these countries are not considered particularly stable and they don't want to end up with Iran situation again.
The US supports all kinds of Sunni terrorist organizations.
> During the Syrian Civil War, it was a common knowledge that certain islamist groups were funded by certain states, and the states were competing with each other in this regard on the battlefield.
This is the US again. Not only that, but proud of it. We put Jalani in a suit and have Petreus give him a Barbara Walters style celebrity interview. The US poured more money into using Al Quaeda to topple the secular regime and turn it into an Islamic state than anyone else. If you believe Hillary Clinton's leaked email, we've been funding them since at least 2012.
>The Arab petrostates and their citizens regularly support all kinds of Sunni terrorist organizations. During the Syrian Civil War, it was a common knowledge that certain islamist groups were funded by certain states, and the states were competing with each other in this regard on the battlefield.
With America's implicit consent, at least. The Washington consensus on Syria was that Assad had to go, even if it was extreme Islamist that did the work on the ground. State Dept. openly admitted in emails that al-Qaeda in Syria was an asset since they were fighting & weakening Assad's regime. And it worked! HTS, Julani's faction that ousted Assad & runs Syria today was an al-Qaeda-aligned group. They gained territory & moderated & everyone realizes letting them run the country is better.
>I would also argue that the regimes in these countries are not considered particularly stable and they don't want to end up with Iran situation again.
So, your way of dealing with these countries is to weaken their legitimacy by showing them up as spineless cowards that can't stand up to Israel, despite their sucking up to America?
And despite the Western fictions, most countries of the Arab Gulf are extremely stable. The population is small enough to be controlled. Citizens are heavily subsidized. Power is apportioned/maintained through tribal allegiances that have lasted longer than many Western countries, in some cases. They're going nowhere.
If you want to weaken Iran, you need to empower the Arab states since the Sunni-Shia split is one of their points of contention. Instead, America lets Israel bomb them and proves Iran's point that America & Israel are unreliable allies at best, or enemies of Muslims at worst.
I have a hypothesis that empires fall when the rulers mistake their rule for the natural order of things.
This mistaken worldview has the ruling classes fighting each other for control over the empire, while blinding them to the rise of other powers.
This has that Dr. Strangelove feel to it. "Looks like the missile is already inbound, might as well commit to support the attack"
> The IAF hit a compound where negotiators for Hamas were meeting to consider a Gaza ceasefire proposal put forward by the U.S. government. The attack killed six people
Right... and someone remind us, how many billions of dollars does US send to Israel's military, directly and indirectly?
https://www.npr.org/2025/09/20/nx-s1-5547884/the-pentagon-re...
big surprise there.
Some pearl clutcher feel like chiming in that it's "not relevant to tech!!!?"
Well, neither is this, for example, yet it's on page one of hacker news with 360+ comments and no problems with being flagged by some assclown.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45372442