Tesla Market Share in Us Drops to Lowest Since 2017
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Tesla's US market share has dropped to its lowest since 2017 as the EV market grows and competition increases, sparking debate among commenters about the company's future prospects and product lineup.
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Why not? Look at Apple's smartphone market share in the US. It's been fairly constant at 60% for the last 15 years.
In Tesla's case, a number of competitors have entered the market. It would be impossible to maintain whatever market share they had no matter how good the product is or how well their stock price is doing.
In the vehicle market, there's a lot more competition space than just two or three brands. And just because someone is around, say, Ford drivers. It doesn't necessarily mean that they're going to go out and buy a Ford for themselves. Rather, they're going to buy whatever they find appealing.
Consecutive years of sales declines is a situation where it does not matter if the market is growing or shrinking, it's bad for a company. The only way to grow if absolute sales go down is to raise margins on each individual unit.
"But with weakening sales and a host of competitors, Tesla has had to cut prices in recent years, squeezing its margins and worrying investors."
Hmmmm, I guess maybe the author of the article understands this better than you think?
Optimus seems to be much closer to actually being released as a product than Atlas. After over a decade, Boston Dynamics still hasn't shown anyone a live, unscripted demo of Atlas as far as I can tell (Tesla was showing those with multiple Optimus robots a year ago). And they don't appear to have any plans for actually selling it as a product anytime soon.
I'm skeptical of the humanoid robot market in general, but at the moment Tesla and Unitree appear to be the two companies ate the forefront of it.
Based on their history I'm pretty optimistic that those expectations will not be met, but Tesla somehow still rises in value.
The market can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent.
Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, but expecting different results
If the market grows in size and you’re able to grow revenue and profit, reduced market share in and of itself doesn’t matter.
While the U.S. market share has declined, Tesla's overall annual revenue has continued to grow from $11.75 billion in 2017 to over $97 billion in 2024, though it saw a slight decline in revenue for the 12 months ending June 30, 2025.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/TSLA/tesla/revenue
The Tesla story and its high valuation were based on the idea that Tesla had won the car market, others couldn’t catch up, and Tesla was going to be doing laps around the competition with all of their additional business lines that grew out of their class-leading EV business.
If their EV business is losing market share, that really is a problem for the narrative. They could be fine as an EV company, but they’ve sold themselves as something far more.
> Tesla's overall annual revenue has continued to grow from $11.75 billion in 2017
2017 was forever ago in technology and economic terms. The most important problem right now is that their revenue isn’t growing while everyone else is getting better at EVs.
Long-term growth is pinned on success in AI, robotics, robotaxis, and autonomous services.
Without the tax credit these companies may cease to exist or stop making evs in the case of Ford.
It's likely they will have fewer competitors soon
This story never made sense. They sold about 1.8 million cars in 2024 (and also in 2023), VAG sold 9 million. Tesla is no where close to winning the car market. Until recently, Ford regularly sold more F-Series than Tesla sold cars.
Sure, for quite some time, Tesla was selling a lot more EVs than anyone else. But, building EVs is supposed to be easier than building ICE cars, and some of the old guard auto manufacturers have been building cars for hundreds of years... Once they decide to build EVs and figure out the logistics of batteries, they're going to have no trouble building EVs or selling them, and then Tesla is left with the moat of the Musk Reality Distortion Field which seems to be weaker now than ever.
When nobody else was making competent EVs, Telsa's market value was clear. Now, I don't know. There are so many to choose from, but what does a Tesla give you that some other EV doesn't?
2024: $97.69 B, i.e. +0.95% vs. 2023
2023: $96.77 B, i.e. +18.8% vs. 2022
2022: $81.46 B, i.e. +51.35% vs. 2021
So flat for 1 year (going into 2024) and we don't yet know 2025 numbers, which is less pessimistic than your "almost 3 years flat".
If you adjust for inflation, the 2022-2023 rise is going to look fairly anaemic (and 23-24 is a drop, of course).
You can lose market share and increase revenue if the market is growing fast enough.
If you measure market share by units moved (as many markets are measured), you can raise prices and increase revenue despite lower unit sales and lost market share.
Basic math dude.
There’s such a thing as a top down vs bottom up approach.
The numbers cited in the article are units sold. Tesla has 38% of 128k cars sold. Now tell me what the Tesla revenue was using your method?
See why serious people just look at what revenue was to determine what revenue was? It’s not a “bottom up” approach, it’s a “look at that reported and audited number and tell me what it is” approach.
Did you figure out what the revenue is yet, I'm super curious about how close the "top down" approach is going to be to reality. Don't forget that Tesla has revenue from non car products!
Okay. And if the total sales of a market = 1000 and Tesla has 10% share then it has 100 in revenue. That's how percentages work.
Losing market share as a percentage is expected in a growing market as new players enter.
"Sales of new EVs jumped more than 24% month over month in July to 128,268, according to the Cox data, driven by the looming end of a $7,500 tax credit for EVs and attractive deals. Tesla saw sales rise 7% to 53,816, even as its market share fell."
I love to hate on Elon as much as the next person, but everything was above board.
https://driveteslacanada.ca/news/canada-clears-tesla-in-izev...
> Tesla’s head of sales for Canada, emphasized in a March 28 letter that the filings followed program guidelines, which allowed post-delivery submissions despite recommendations for pre-delivery assessments.
but this alludes to something more:
> Despite the clearance, Tesla will still be excluded from future iZEV programs
Huh. Why, I wonder?
It isn't a mystery, the PM of Canada and several premiers have openly stated that Tesla isn't going to be eligible because Musk is Musk, and Tesla is American.
When they removed the center horn and the stalks from their cars, they officially jumped the shark. But I bet they saved at least $50 per car from their costs. I still can't believe the NHTSA hasn't issued a recall.
https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/model3/en_us/GUID-DEB259C...
https://www.tesla.com/ownersmanual/models/en_us/GUID-DEB259C...
I’ve driven a Model 3 and its handling and overall feel was worse than a barebones Honda Civic. I’d say a Model 3 is on par with how a low end Chrysler feels to drive.
Why are you staring at your instrument panel and not the road? The speed is just a glance at the top corner as you should be focused on driving ;)
Reminds me cheap Peugeot 107 where tachometer is an extra option.
Having owned both, I’m not even sure where to begin with how laughably inaccurate that is. We can start at functioning automatic wipers, 360 degree cameras, parking assist that actually works, a knob to control stereo volume, accurate marketing numbers for range, a dealership network that actually will fix the issue, insurance that isn’t insane, headlight brights that actually dim at an appropriate distance for oncoming traffic, cruise control that doesn’t phantom brake (slam on the brakes for no reason) traveling down the highway…
Need I continue? Because I can.
Are you sure you owned both? You're sort of exposing yourself as never having owned a Tesla at all (at least not a new one). I've never experienced phantom braking in my Y (although I have in a ford escort), and the headlight dimming is pretty good (again in the new model Y, unsure about an old one).
Niceness is subjective, so I suppose it's inappropriate to declare it as nicer, but it is a premium car. The materials and experience are much nicer than, say, a Camry, and is on par with vehicles in its class if not better.
And with just that statement you’ve lost all credibility. The internet is literally full of endless people complaining about phantom braking including the Tesla forums. The “fix” is to pay for FSD which isn’t a fix at all. It’s extortion.
Another POV is the measurement is meaningless, and the market seems to agree.
The auto industry is a good bet as long as you think Americans of means gravitate towards a car lifestyle, which is almost certainly true.
If your CEO bribes voters to help elect a traitorous pedophile and then personally (and illegally) cuts aid funding directly causing hundreds of thousands of deaths and all of that hurts business, that's something you have to include for context! That's some crazy stuff!
Early on this was in their favor, but with more automakers entering the fray with serious attempts to compete, they’re going to have to add at least a couple more models to reman competitive: something in the vein of a Chevy Bolt on one end and an SUV that’s the next step up in size from the Y/X on the other. A more conventional truck that more directly competes with the F-150 also couldn’t hurt.
The nerd in me loves the technology, particularly behind the scenes features of the Cybertruck like 48v architecture. In the end I want to drive something that feels like it has a soul and substance. Teslas lineup right now is not that.
Tesla EVs have the most data to support their reliability (at least the 3/Y), and they are clearly very reliable. Plus it costs just as much as a Rav 4, but has tons more torque. And the software is much better even though it lacks Carplay.
I'm imagining a designer looking at the earlier windshield slant, and knowing they could work with that, and retain references to the iconic earlier design.
They seem to understand the car market.
Toyota wasted a lot of time and money on that bet, and lost a lot of ground in the market.
(And yes, a quick google confirms[0] the RAV4 is ahead of any Tesla offering this year.)
[0]: https://www.caranddriver.com/news/g64457986/bestselling-cars...
edit: see replies, this is US-only.
Best selling in 2024 world wide was Model Y even including trucks? https://www.visualcapitalist.com/ranked-the-worlds-best-sell...
The more interesting stat is that Toyota has 5 of the top 10 best selling cars.
Not saying it's wrong (I have no idea, that's why I googled), but would be interesting to know.
edit: but also, you're right that I inadvertently looked at US-only data. I did say it was a quick Google. :) Edited my original comment.
0.191 Dongfeng Xinghai S7
0.194 XPeng Mona M03
0.195 Xiaomi SU7 Pro
0.197 Lucid Air Pure
I'm looking forward to the Mona coming to Europe next year https://cnevpost.com/2025/09/09/xpeng-launch-mona-series-eur...
The Cybertruck is just am embarrassment, design wise.
I say all of this as a recent $TSLA bear with a healthy short position.
Given that they apparently have no new models in development, I'd expect the latter.
- Their roadmap is just updates to their existing line-up, and vapourware crap that relies on their "Full Self Driving" somehow magically starting to work.That's because they did. The initial plan was for the plates to double as the frame of the car. That's how they could have achieved the seamless look of the renders. Turns out they couldn't make it work for whatever reason and the plates are just on top of the frame.
But I know what you're saying. I give it credit for being out there when nothing else in the auto industry is. Sadly though, its failure will likely further entrench the rest of the industry.
The matte steel body and the unbroken slope on the front are cool, if impractical. There's something funny about the tray and the featureless non-grille though.
Based on the criteria, you might like the Fiat Multipla https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fiat_Multipla
I guess it will become an issue again when "car" becomes synonymous with "EV" and there's a sudden spike in EV registration, but who knows when that tipping point will occur.
And in many ways it's inferior to the Y. Tesla's mega casting and structural pack gives the Y excellent range and a lower weight for a cheaper battery.
I think the reason Tesla hasn't done mega casting and structural packs for the other lineups (besides the equipment costs) is because it'd make them eat into the revenue of the top tier models. A model 3 cutting down several hundred pounds would be range competitive with the model S. The shorter range LFP batteries could still land you in previously long range land.
The QC on the Cybertruck pretty much shows why they lost their brand power over the years, though. Even when ignoring the politics.
[0] I’m not sure anyone agrees what it’s called.
> The QC
Was never Tesla’s forte.
https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html
Please consider what your commentary adds to the discussion before posting, repetition detracts from thread quality. Thanks!
https://www.focus2move.com/world-car-market/
I may be proven wrong, but until then I'll point to ~ten years of FSD promises.
There's no reason really why robots have to be humanoid, or that you have to interact with virtual worlds by strapping the screen on your face.
None of that makes him a credible or even a competent CEO.
Considering that Tesla's P/E is the highest in the S&P 500, and is 3.5X higher than the next company in the list, it's been hinted that Tesla's valuation is coming from - cough - alternative sources and isn't a sensible estimate of potential earnings.
Mocking conventional investors seems very much the current MO, just as much as mocking customers.
So I don't care what he's betting the company on. Tesla is now a drama for the sake of drama stock, and anyone who is expecting it to produce credible products may want to reconsider that possibility.
I don’t know if you have checked out other OEMs lineups lately…Ford doesn’t even make a sedan anymore. That’s right. Just SUVs and trucks. And mustang supercar. Other OEMs have similarly trimmed their lineups. You can thank CAFE er al for that.
Don't forget that about the other 95% of the people on earth
Does it? Since they stopped building the Mondeo in Europe they don’t sell any sedans there or in most places I’m aware of. The only Ford sedan I’m aware of in production anywhere is the Chinese-market Ford Mondeo built in a joint venture with Changan.
Somewhat, but I'll blame business finance way, way, way more.
The US automakers are doing the exact same dumbass thing they did in the 1970s with "BIGGER!-shouted (and more profitable)-whispered" until the Japanese automakers showed up and wiped the floor with them.
Well, BYD is coming and is going to wipe the floor with them.
"Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tesla_Model_Y_L
But yes, I fully agree that deprioritizing/stopping the low-cost "Model 2" was a major mistake. Particularly with tariffs keeping Chinese EVs out, Tesla could have pretty much owned the space in the US. (Although Elon's DOGE antics would still have alienated a large portion of the customer base.)
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