Postal Traffic to Us Down by Over 80% Amid Tariffs, Un Says
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The UN reports an 80% decline in postal traffic to the US due to tariffs, sparking concerns about the impact on the USPS and the economy, with commenters expressing frustration and worry about the effects of protectionist policies.
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Now, UPS and FedeX and other such companies, I think they could be in for a world of hurt if this is really true and continues for a while.
It’s more likely a set of products that were shipping directly from factories disappears from the market. For example, the direct from factory Halloween costume.
It could end up being a step backwards in living standards and access to daily luxuries.
Best of luck.
I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.
I don’t like the broad application of tariffs that is implemented today. They should have been better targeted. But this is one area where they are achieving what was intended.
A lot of vendors are still locked in with pre-tarrif pricing to big box stores so all of them need to go bankrupt before the full price increase takes effect.
Chaos and uncertainty seem like a much bigger issue in the US than forcing foreign retailers to compete on an even footing with local sellers.
It is ridiculous. And also, if you are buying/selling low amounts and there is an intentional legal rule that says "small mounts are not taxed", then you are not avoiding anything nor using a loophole. You are legitimately buying a Canadian or Mexican item.
It may be accomplishing what was intended -- but I don't think that people in the US (even those paying attention) understand what was intended. The lack of clarity in terms of regulations and collection of fees/tariffs show that it is not about efficiently collecting the $ but instead about breaking the chain of goods, from big business to small business to family ties, and cutting off flow to the USPS, supporting the privatization of the entity.
I agree that the de minimis exemption was being abused at scale.
I'm also salty that my family can't send birthday or Christmas presents, even a home-made card.
Whatever you want to say about this administration, always look one level down for the wholesale reconfiguration of supply chain and international connections that they're aiming for.
this is what i suspect too. most of his common supporters i interact with parrot the “america first will revitalize the economy and job market” and then when that doesnt happen they do the same with “i’m willing to deal with temporary bit of pain in order to ensure american interests are protected.” these comments are almost always framed against the Obama and Biden administrations and never stand on their own merit (e.g. “unlike biden who …”).
to be perfectly fair, I’m not entirely sure what the ultimate goal is, though. My perception of the character of the person of the president has been dim for many decades so when it’s something that he champions I immediately chalk it up to something that would serve his own self interest above that of any group of other people
If you are taking issue with Temu-like shipments, that is more of a postal treaty issue.
But now it’s an unknown risk to ship because you don’t know if the tariffs you calculated when you send the package are the same as when it arrives.
Get used to empty shelves and less choices at a higher price.
Lose-Lose-Lose
The de minimus exception was for the administrative overhead rather than any tax.
I'm pretty vexxed by this question. To me it seems obvious that a lot of what is happening is going to hurt, both short term (tariffs) and long term (destruction of the US advantage in science), but markets have kept going up and up.
Reinvested into the fabric of your local community.
https://portfoliocharts.com/2021/12/16/three-secret-ingredie...
Something like the Frontier-3. Small cap value, long term treasuries, and gold. That portfolio does amazing at all time periods and still hit 10% a year in the lost decade after the 2000 crash.
I'm not sure where this misconception comes from that the upper class of the US would be more highly taxed elsewhere, but it continues to pollute any attempts to have honest discussions about reform.
In the relevant comparison cases, this does not appear to be a misconception.
I am not an expert in global taxation, and with the caveat that tax rates have many complications ... some quick research suggests the following:
A top-bracket earner from Texas would have a higher tax rate in 55 other countries, e.g. Aruba, Australia, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Canada, Chile, China, Croatia, Czech Republic, DR Congo, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Greenland, Iceland, India, Ireland, Israel, Italy, Japan, Morocco, The Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Pakistan, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Slovenia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom, Zimbabwe. (I skipped some)
A top-bracket earner from California would have a higher tax rate in 11 other countries: Aruba, Austria, Belgium, Canada (the parts where people live), Denmark, Finland, France, Ireland, Japan, Portugal, Spain.
(You might argue that "upper class" does not include "earners", which would be a good way to be technically correct but would miss the point.)
Additionally, the capital gains rate is higher in 24 other countries, including most of the obvious ones.
And the top corporate tax rate is higher in 133 other countries.
So we'll go with your CA example given the site we're on. Only 11 countries have a higher tax rate, and how much higher is it for them vs. how much higher it would be for the median income household in the state?
Also, that CA resident has to pay a 13.3% state capital gains tax, pushing it over 30% (in the best case) in total for high earners, which is higher that the vast majority of developed nations.
Corporate income taxes are a separate beast to some extend, but until recently the US had the second highest rate in the world.
We've already seen some huge, positive structural changes to our economy and a down-and-out, bleeding US will have nothing but positive effects for the rest of us.
I'd have some sympathy but this is an entirely self-inflicted wound and Americans could collectively use a bit of humility.
Canadians aren't buying it now. The last election just made us shake our heads, and the crap that came after, the threats to us about which 90% of Americans treated as either "YEAH!" or "Oh, that's just trolling".
Just over the border outside of Buffalo I see red all over. Even the bluest of states like Vermont have areas that went Trump last election.
Sorry, it's just bleak to watch and when your nation makes war on our economy, there's no need for us to differentiate "baddies" from "goodies". We have no voice in your elections and we can't march on your streets to protest your broken regime.
But you do. Go fix it. So far I'm not impressed by the domestic opposition.
Repeated '51st state' blather. Threats of using tariffs until we capitulate and join. Talk of re-drawing the border because someone thinks it "looks weird". and stealing our land and water by force.
If someone wants to add tariffs to imports, it's silly, dumb, misguided, but well.. the US is free to do that. But try to take our identity away? Our home? Our nation.
This will not be put aside for decades
When you get stabbed by a random nutjob, it hurts, but whatever. When you get stabbed in the back by a friend, a brother? The hurt and pain is like a nova. It will never be forgiven, never put out of mind.
I am not as optimistic as the parent comment, about a US recession being of benefit to the rest of the world. I think we're all various degrees of fucked if it all falls apart, though it is probably true that other countries will benefit in the long run.
The success of the initiative still remains to be seen: it is definitely not a failure, but many things can derail it, both inside and outside of China. In either case I see very little desire from the China to throw its non-economic might around outside of what they consider to be part of the Greater China territorial area (Taiwan, South China and Philippine seas). My 2c.
China takes in immigrants in numbers so tiny they might as well not have an immigration program. Either Korea is an authoritarian nightmare no one wants to immigrate to. Europe, and to a lesser extent Japan, takes in immigrants, fails to integrate them, and then engenders a bunch of far-right nutjobs calling for revocation of citizenship and other Hitlerwords. As a double irony, those immigrant communities also trend far-right, and the argument between the two is just big and little endianism[0].
The US was special in that it was the world's "backup democracy". Nobody is equipped to replace it.
OK, but why doesn't China just fix the demographic issue instead of papering over it with immigration? Well, we already know the fix: uninvent birth control and trick horny kids into having lots of teen pregnancies. That's the circumstances of life in places with high fertility rates. Except that it unambiguously sucks to live life in a human breeding farm. Having a bunch of kids with absentee parents is extremely destabilizing to the social fabric of a country. That's the shit Nixon did to the Black community to spark a crime wave. That's why there's so many people emigrating from countries with high birth rates. And if you're thinking of further rules to prevent that, well, congratulations. You've just reinvented medieval Christian sexual mores.
The cure is worse than the disease.
[0] As in, the factions from Gullivers' Travels, not the byte order of CPUs
If the US economy is in recession, it likely means less spending in general and so less spending on Canadian goods which is likely a problem for the Canadian economy. I'm sure there would be some benefits for Canada as well, but in a connected world economy, when one major country suffers, it's negative for most other countries.
That said, yeah it'd be nice if we (US) learned a lesson here, but we don't seem to be quick learners.
You're not wrong in who imports the most Canadian goods. Or on how we're all interconnected globally. But just for the record, if you take away oil, we import more from the US, than the US from Canada.
And our imports from the US are waaaay down. Funny thing, but when the US talks about annexing Canada, or applying tariffs until we "capitulate and join the US", we get a annoyed. Everywhere I go, especially for groceries, each price tag now has a Canadian or provincial flag on it. They didn't before, but they sure do now. And the outcome is obvious.
And really, it's buying from Canada or what... Middle East dictatorships? Or of course drilling more in US territory, which is fine, but hardly Canada's fault. And the funny thing is, we sell our oil at a massive discount to the US.
Like our copper. And iron. And 100 other things, all typically at a discount compared to world market pricing.
A funny thing has already started to happen, in fact the following video is 2 months old. Instead of trading with the US, and the US trading with the world? We're all just trading with each other instead. When this video was made, Canadian exports were up world wide, and down to the US. And overall?
Exports were just up.
Right now we're feeling some pain from recent tariffs on steel. But we'll just weather it, and bypass the US, like has happened with everything else:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gCwQfSbAyeQ
I believe the end result is the rest of the world will just trade with each other, not with the US, resulting in little difference for everyone else. And disaster for the US. Long term of course.
The weirdest part of all of this is, the US specifically wanted more integration. Forced us to take on the FTA then NAFTA in the 80s and so on. Told us we'd be screwed if we didn't comply. And every year since, our real world earnings have gone down per capita, as the US absorbs us economically.
And then some guy shows up and tries to claim we're taking advantage. Huh?! What? You made us take on free trade, forced us to integrate economically, we were worse for it, but.. we're taking advantage??
We're basically more than happy to use these opportunities to cut financial ties with the US, because they current arrangement wasn't working out well anyhow.
That's great for you. We (US) messed up worse than I realized.
Your economy will clearly turn out better after this mess (perhaps already), which is great... neighbors helping neighbors and all that. (I don't think we can claim a 3d chess victory of helping the world economy by shooting ourselves in the foot though) I think you would still be better off when the US is not in recession though...
But our economy won't be better off. And even when we eventually return to sanity, we won't be able to return to where we were.
Maybe we can import ketchup and all dressed chips when relations normalize!
> And then some guy shows up and tries to claim we're taking advantage. Huh?! What? You made us take on free trade, forced us to integrate economically, we were worse for it, but.. we're taking advantage??
Yeah... the US clearly benefits from free trade and I don't understand how he thinks we're being taken advantage of by most countries. Like OK, maybe China but it's complicated. Blanket tarrifs are madness, especially when a lot of imports can't be sourced domestically.
Picture Trump sitting in his office. A concerned, confused look is on his face. Clearly his mind is dwelling on an issue, a problem.
After a while, he picks up the phone and dials a number. The phone connects and a person wearing a headset, at a call centre answers.
"Support!", they say, "How may I help you?"
Trump replies "Hi. My tariffs aren't working. Can you tell me what's wrong?"
Support answers "Have you tried turning them off and on again?"
Makes as much sense as anything.
Unfortunately starting the rebalancing often requires a crisis. I hope the next one will lead to a world with several stronger, independent and competing clusters, not a weaker, beaten up version of the current setup.
e.g. just like the tariffs which are hurting Canada much more than the US.
None of this is good for working Canadians right now. The shit is about to hit the proverbial fan in this country in the next few months. And as bad as things might get in the US they're likely to be worse here.
Maybe in the long run we'll be on a stronger footing but it could also just lead to even more entrenched monopolies in the Canadian economy, and a victimized Canadian consumer.
I think there will be a depression, not just a recession.
I really hope I'm wrong.
On the other hand, "Sufficiently advanced incompetence is indistinguishable from malice."
In the end, it doesn't matter whether these are incompetent or malicious people. These are people who are going to ruin a lot of lives around the world. The trick is, how do we get them out of power (in several countries) before they do too much damage?
The question is whether you impose protectionism before or after you crater.
> I hope the recession ends up being smaller in length and magnitude than the 2008-2009 recession because that one wrecked an entire generation in terms of wealth and psychology.
It's going to be longer, and worse. Especially since there's no one in the ruling class that doesn't think that the way to get out of recessions is the massive-scale disinvestment that comes with austerity. We only got out of the last one because while America was preaching austerity, it was giving handouts to every wealthy person in America, while Europe was actually dumb enough to do austerity for real.
Upper-middle class people will be fine. During covid their wealth doubled through no particular effort of their own. It was just a gift from taxpayers to show them we love them.
Not a chance. Were it just the tariffs, the recession would be quite small. The tariffs might even be cancelled if the SCOTUS remembers to do it's job.
But it's not just the tariffs.
The US economy is currently being kept afloat by AI R&D and infrastructure spending. It's stock market kept alive by 7 companies who are all neck deep in AI hype.
This not only disguises the malaise in the rest of the US economy, it's a bubble. Everyone knows it. Nvidia's the only one making any money and even they are now relying on vendor financing and other such red flags. Even one who believes that the technology of AI is here to stay, has to face the reality that it's not a golden goose of infinite dollar bills.
We're looking at something that's going to be at least as bad as the Dotcom crash. 'At least' because while the bubble is of only comparable size, other conditions are much worse.
Trump is trying to seize the fed. Big Tech is tearing the copper wiring out of it's own walls to keep AI going a little longer, and their plans for cutting costs is to dramatically increase H1Bs and outsourcing. (One wonders if there might be a non-economic reason behind this, given it's one specific country they're seeking to hire from >.>)
And underneath it all: A timebomb. Much, much, much more of consumer spending in 2025 is from pensioners than it was in 2000. When the stock market eats a 50% loss and stay there for a decade, those pensions will be cut dramatically. This drives down consumer spending, in turn driving down the stock market, a vicious cycle.
It was a stupid exception I'm glad they did away with it. I have no idea who in their bright mind saw reason to increase the exception to 800 from 200). Stupid.
Suspension was talked about in April. Announced globally at the end of July and took effect at the end of August.
The problem is that the Trump Administration is plainly incompetent in handling these matters. There wouldn't be this shitshow of sudden haltings in postal services to the US if they'd done the normal thing of announcing the changes with an appropriate lead time for businesses to adjust, rather than suddenly implementing it alongside the constant ping-ponging between yes-tariffs and no-tariffs.
Widget $30
Shipping $60
Shipped via DHL which did have the mechanisms in place to declare contents and pay the tariffs, but not for free.
For people ordering tube socks off of AliBaba, the economics is entirely different and the result is not unexpected.
IMO it should go back to been that way. It is ridiculous to ship these small packages by air. I am not in favor of tariffs, but the shipping needs to be included in the bill.
I've been living here four years and met some really wonderful Americans, both Democrat and Republican, yet I don't think I've met a single one who thinks the way you're presenting. This seems like a pretty bleak way to view your country's politics, respectfully.
The republican politicians then have to craft a message that will get enough normal, not rich people to vote them into office. So they talk about hot-button culture war issues, selecting the positions they must take to get numbers they need (abortion, gun rights, "freedom of speech," gay marriage, immigrants, vaccines, etc etc), all the while reminding their base that the government (except the military and police) is bad.
So that is say, normal people who vote republican can be very nice and reasonable, and they have one or two things that strongly motivates them to vote for a terribly harmful platform.
From forcing them to fund all future retirement funding in a way that no other government agency is (the PAEA) to all of the attacks on it around "mail-in vote fraud," to the constant attacks on the budget issues that they created, it's plainly apparent that the Republicans desire USPS failing and being privatized.
Many of them have also literally said as much. AEI and Cato are big proponents of privatization, Trump has talked about it many times, Wells Fargo has created some proposed frameworks, etc., and the worse it performs as a public entity the better they can make the argument for privatization.
However, in Canada we remain in the midst of a long work-to-rule strike by the Canadian Union of Postal Workers (CUPW) against Canada Post (CP). The biggest issue in this strike is that there is a very wide gap between what CUPW is demanding (in terms of pay increases, protection of workers, maintenance of routes) and what CP is offering.
CP had been losing billions of dollars (even prior to the strike) and the situation continues to worsen as consumers lose confidence in the reliability of CP's parcel service, due to the strike. CP wants to close a lot of post offices, complete the phase-out of door-to-door postal service in favour of community mailboxes (which are already in use for more than half of households), and even reduce delivery frequency to less than 5 days per week.
I actually support these cost-cutting measures by CP because I, like many other Canadians, receive almost zero useful mail by post these days. Almost all of the mail I receive is advertising (junk mail), with the few exceptions being bills and statements from banks and the like (the latter of which ought to be phased out to fully electronic since I only bank through mobile apps anyway).
And so I'm left wondering what exactly is the public good in the postal service anyway? It seems more like a subsidy for a handful of advertisers and banks as well as a jobs program for postal workers. I send actual letters by mail so infrequently that I wouldn't mind paying $10 to send one by courier. But that isn't even within the space of proposals (shutting down CP completely)!
The most extreme proposal would be for CP to eliminate door-to-door service (community mailboxes only) and to switch to weekly delivery only, instead of daily. That would not affect the vast majority of Canadians in the slightest. The only ones who would be truly affected are those with mobility issues (disabilities or the elderly) who are unable to walk down the street to the community mailbox. Fortunately, there is already a service in place for providing mobility assistance to these people!
Honestly that sounds like some good ways to reduce costs and carbon emissions. For the elderly there would need to be some considerations made. I live in the US but in large apartment buildings here there’s a couple of mailrooms for hundreds of units, I imagine it’s significantly more efficient than delivering to each unit.
Jokes aside, I getting hung up on that term in this context feels unnecessary, it was quiet clear what kaitai was talking about from the text he wrote.
Surely you see how the spam is subsidizing letters, and then “public good” isn’t so obviously black and white. I mean we could ban spam, tax to pay $6.50 of every $7 letter to enable wedding invitations be $0.50 to mail… but why?
The post office fucking rules.
This administration continues to find new ways to make this country shittier for the common man. Lower courts recently found his tariffs to be illegal but given the corrupt state of the SCOTUS. It’s only a matter of time until it’s overturned.
It’s sad that the best we can do is _delay_ the damage this demented fool is doing to this country.
Doesn’t matter if you are "right" or "left". Arkansas farmers getting steam rolled by this awful tariff policy from orange man administration [1] to the point where they are asking for bailouts.
The only people benefiting from those tariffs are billionaires hoping to put the common man into more debt or continue to buy up depreciating assets due to squeezing from all angles.
[1] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/arkansas-farmers-pleading-us-...
The costs need to be apportioned accurately and the Chinese firms were getting a great deal on the backs of the regular postal users in the US.
I'm guessing these last mile deliveries are gig workers, considering I seem to get deliveries from people in unmarked personal vehicles nowadays.
The US is already far behind the economies of scale of Chinese production, and has higher labor costs and higher regulatory costs (both good and bad), so it's fundamentally not possible to compete on price alone, regardless of any postal treaty issues, which, again, are not a huge factor these days.
The new logistics services have been pretty interesting, and don't bode well for UPS/FedEx who have been content to focus only on large packages and charge ridiculous fees for a long time without innovating.
2. Could not care less about “climate issues.” A better reason for video conferencing is to avoid airports and especially dealing with border control clowns asking the same silly questions every trip, and the McDonald’s rejects called TSA.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2025/08/26/have-for...
A statistically significant drop, but not exactly plummetting.
What I don't want to gamble is with my life and freedom. Will I get detained because of spicy JD Vance memes I posted or not? Nobody knows!
If the latter, then indeed it's not dramatic. But if the former, then the number of contingent trips to the US might have dropped a lot, and is hiding mixed in with regular unaffected traffic of USians.
https://www.ustravel.org/us-travel-snapshot-april-2025
But de minimis elimination suddenly means collecting tariffs on something you previously never did. That's new.
I actually support eliminating de minimis. The rest of the tariffs nonsense we've been going through for 8 months is objetcively insane.
Another aspect to this is international agreements that make domestic delivery free for an international sender who just needs get parcels to a port. Such an agreement was made when deliveries were so one-sided.
So we had a situation where shipping between China and the US was cheap (by sea) and there were no charges for domestic delivery and no tariffs.
This is my bet, too.
De minimis was a good idea for high volume low value. Eliminating it is a dumb idea but the 800§ threshold was probably a bit too high.
Does "hyper-rational" allow for arguments about how this affects soft power and the relationships with foreign businesses? Does it allow adding additional tallies in the ongoing list of reasons other countries should not trust us or the dollar as a reserve?
The US economy is currently being operated by a single man, who has no actual long-term plan and randomly flips levers and switches beyond his legal power to do so. He randomly targets companies and policies based on whoever last spoke to him or whatever social media post he saw at 3 AM. And now he's shut down an entire lane of trade for several months. Just... Dead.
Many businesses will simply not take US orders anymore after this fiasco. Some may go out of business by the time things come back.
And that's before any discussion about the actual de minimus changes. Changes which will effectively kill the ability for the average American citizen to custom order anything from any other country.
As an example: in my part of the woods, women don't really like to buy from retail stores anymore. The quality is crap and they're often ugly clothes with inconsistent sizing. So a lot of them would be custom stuff from Etsy, slightly more expensive but MUCH higher quality and made to fit. A lot of it came from eastern Europe.
That market is dead. Guess it's back to cheap Chinese T-shirts.
But don't, worry 5 billionaires came to the white house and worshipped Trump on camera like some weird North Korea / Stalinistic shit.
How does it kill the ability to custom order? My understanding of removing de minimus is only that the tariffs now apply to all orders. And because most tariffs now have been set ~30%, an order that was previously $100 is now $130. It seems like many willing to order custom made clothing would also be willing to pay an extra 30%.
Or they can switch courier, but that comes with the ad valorem tax and then that couriers brokerage fees - at least $30 dollars (though they'll probably raise it now that they don't have to compete). So a $50 shirt is now $85.
On top of that is the extra paperwork the seller now has to go through. And who knows if the tariff will change on the way, so maybe throw on a surcharge for Americans or just refuse the orders entirely.
> It seems like many willing to order custom made clothing would also be willing to pay an extra 30%.
These aren't rich people. They're paying a little extra already to avoid the poor tax of cheap, unethical crap they have to replace more often. Even just 30% is a huge markup because now instead of being double the price, it's almost triple the price of the worse stuff where those fees are amortized.
It's hard for me to believe I'm hearing, on HN of all places, "it's just 30% more expensive".
Oh they will, they just will go through an intermediary.
1. e.g. PCBs for vintage computers, and some potential kickstarter projects are now non-viable.
> 88 operators worldwide fully or partially suspending services, the Universal Postal Union.. said operators didn't have enough time to prepare for the changes, or to put in place mechanisms to collect the duties and establish a link with the relevant US authorities.. The agency is working on "the rapid development of a new technical solution that will help get mail moving to the United States again," UPU Director General Masahiko Metoki said
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