Nvidia: Too Many Red Flags – Ratings Downgrade

Anyone remember when Nvidia obsoleted $800 video cards with 'twice as powerful, twice as efficient'on a yearly basis?

Remember when Microsoft made operating systems that fit on a single CD or better yet, 13 floppy disks? Remember when windows update didn't turn itself on, when new windows firewall rules weren't magically created, when outlook didn't tell people you were online?

Remember when Oracle made and supported database software that was actually better than it's competitors? It ran on your own hardware and did not cost a small country's GDP per license?

AI bagholders are getting a lesson retail gamers and small business sysadmins have been suffering for decades with tech bros toying with supply, using convoluted licensing, prioritizing manufacturing to artificially inflate hardware prices. Retail trader bros have a bit more weight behind their punch so this will be an interesting hardware cycle.

> September 2025 – Nvidia signed a deal with CoreWeave to buy back its unused GPU capacity for $6.3 bln. This will purportedly allow CRWV's fleet to remain operational during periods of fluctuating demand. We believe this wording suggests that Nvidia could possibly mask any decline in demand for AI capacity within its business. Interestingly, Nvidia is one of CoreWeave's largest investors.

Does anyone understand this deal? Why would Nvidia ever buy back GPU capacity when Coreweave’s entire reason for existence is to rent GPU capacity to other people?

mirror: https://archive.ph/F7lcX

> (AMD) has entered into a major agreement with OpenAI for the supply of 6 GB GPUs.

What the heck is "6 GB GPUs". It's not going to be GPUs with 6GB vram, so has to mean something else...

• Nvidia Corporation may be nearing the peak of the Al cycle, with recent deals raising bubble cortcerns.

• NVDA's transactions and strategic investments, including with CoreWeave, Lambda, and OpenAl, could be masking slowing demand.

• Competition is intensifying as AMD, Alphabet, and Broadcom make major Al chip moves, while NVDA's valuation remains historically high amid a long-term growth slowdown.

• Given bubble risks, valuation concerns, and increased competition, there is significant downside potential for NVDA shares despite near-term growth.

Speaking of peaks, have a look at the Google Trend for “chatgpt” over the last 5 years. Now, it’s the holiday season so maybe it’s just that, but it paints an interesting picture.