Nasdaq 100 Set for Worst Week Since April Meltdown

Yeah, there's still room to fall given how inflated it is. How much did those deal announcements add to market caps? And OpenAI can't pay for it so that will need to be taken off the top.

And it will go (way) down when the music stops on that particular game of musical chairs.

They’re all carefree and confident the US government will bail them out on grounds of a national security threat in falling behind.

Too big to fAIl

somebody has to feed the airoboros

Many people trade more than once every few weeks

It's the momentum, inertia, that is worrisome.

It's just a correction. Unless it isn't, in which case it might be a massive bubble bursting, followed by recession or even depression.

Everyone wants to know, so it's always news. Even though it usually isn't.

> By 2026, Nvidia was the beneficiary of a de facto Ponzi scheme. Investors were excited about AI. One reason they were excited was Nvidia's revenue growth. So they invested in new AI startups and cloud hyperscalers. The startups and hyperscalers then used the money to buy Nvidia chips. Which caused yet more revenue growth for Nvidia, and further convinced investors AI was worth investing in.

Fixed this for anyone still not processing the bubble.

The problem with that story is the dates. If you sold in 1998 when PG realized the ponzi characteristic of the market[1] you'd have lost ("lost") a ton of money. The nasdaq composite in June of 1998 was about $1800. It reached a peak of $5000 (!!!!) just before the crash.

The advice is correct, but in practice it's only helpful if you can time the crash, which you can't. Cycle-driven run-ups in advance of bubble burst events can be shockingly long.

[1] Which is roughly where we are right now with the AI bubble.

For sure. People seem to think that you can just do all the market moving announcements that Altman has done and then say "Oops I don't have the money". Crashing into reality will bring a lot of pain.

A reference point adds a small amount of meaning

The worst rainy second Tuesday of the month since 2023…

I see the same thing in sports broadcasting. “No 24 year old rookie player has started the season with this many at bats from the left side of the plate against visiting teams since…”

I kind of look forward to AI written/approved headlines because we'll get more funny gems from the AI not getting the implications of out of scope context.

usually a good contra signal, anyway

Informing about the current value of X is not meaningless.

Absolutely. In the food delivery industry.

Cause there always needs to be news.

What would the equivalent be in AI? A dirt cheap inference chip for consumer hardware? 2T sized networks on a cell phone so we don't need data centers?

Your analogy required no technological innovation, just a good look at solution space. Where's the microwave tower for AI that everyone is missing?

> risk of an innovation rendering all that infrastructure obsolete can't be ruled out. It's a massive gamble.

It's not just a gamble on technology - it's a gamble on the company too!

You own a company's stock - not a technology's!

In the dot com era, it was the realization that the wrong companies were picked that popped the bubble. Turns out pets.com was never gonna be the billion dollar business. It was that book store Amazon instead. And it was the Google search engine not the other one. And browser A not browser B... And so on... When the expected winner shifts away from one company towards a position where people want to sit on cash and wait and see, you suddenly get a massive rush to the exits and poor pets.com needs to throw in the towel.

We're gonna find out in the next couple of years who the pets.coms are.

One difference is the HFT firms were certain that increased speed would translate to revenues that exceeded the project's expenditures

The "AI" firms have no such certainty that "AI" translates to revenues that will exceed their expenditures

All they have is endless speculation