Is AI a Bubble? I Didn't Think So Until I Heard of Sdd

But command of human attention is another matter: it can be quantified and it is command of attention that defines the value of FAANG+

The AI boosters hype it in such terms, both intra-model and extra-model: we track the attention and sell seats in the musical chairs of "investment", leaving it to users to explain the productivity gains to themselves.

It's a circus.

So like, 2-10xing the productivity of someone who gets paid <<< a software engineer? And who is more 1:1 with the profit from each widget? They don't care that much.

But juicing an already extremely juicy fruit? Now that's worth 70x ARR.

https://www.reddit.com/r/NoCodeSaaS/comments/1mvb3tm/chamath...

Professional coders are the only ones who can get anything real out of llms(well, maybe a 19% decrease in productivity but it’s not fake.

Do you have a source on that “impact is monumental for non developers”? Because most of what I’ve been reading is that group is mostly vaporware.

Yes, it allows them to solve their desperate need to combine spreadsheets, creating one big merged spreadsheet with pockets of corrupted data and fake last-names. It either lies undiscovered until clients complain, or I notice and have to redo the work for them properly, without an LLM. :p

Meanwhile my company has finally shut down last low code instance this year, after 10 years of struggling with maintaining a mountain of unmanageable slow-ass code, all the while paying through the nose for the licenses. Spoiler alert - literally zero non-programmers in my company have ever constructed even a single low-code "thing", as was advertised initially. Every person who worked with it was a programmer or QA who could program (aka SDET) and they simply had to suffer with all the limitations of low code platform while gaining none of the supposed benefits.

I suspect it will end up this way with LLM generated code. At most managers would generate some non-operational prototype of some app and then throw it to the dev team who will have to spend time deconstructing it and then rewriting from scratch (with or without LLM assistance).

They leverage/exploit the fact that it takes time to Verify anything. [Hype-verification gap]

Their theory goes if you use that time delay to beat the drum louder than the next guy you have a shot at attracting more customers, investors, employee, govt support than if you dont. Those who don't do it appear less Ambitious or Capable. Exploit and amplify that also.

Chimps have 3 inch brains. And this is all easier to do than solving quantum field equations. So they do it happily, cluelessly, patting each other on the head about how fascinating they are.

As soon as one chimp troupe (corp) does it well, everyone else does the same, and that's when the entire system experiences a phase transition.

It's no more about what individual chimps or companies say or think, a super structure has emerged, which traps everyone Inside the super structure, into patterns they can't escape.

Stories emerge about what the super structure is then doing. Outsider and Insider stories start diverging. And we get a bifurcation point a moment in chaos theory where one neat line splits into 2, 4, 1000, until you can’t tell what’s signal and what’s noise[1] It’s all feedback where every claim feeds on every other claim, a forest of branches growing out of thin air and verification moves too slowly to prune it.

So what's the message to the kids watching it all and getting absorbed by it? Recognize when you have jumped into the chaos stream between bifurcation and verification. When everything starts to sound urgent, revolutionary, world-changing but no one can show you how or why youre standing dead center in chaos. Stories multiply faster than facts can catch up, where everyone’s pretending to see patterns that arent there yet. The louder it gets, the less meaning there is.That’s your cue to walk sideways. Dont let it drain your attention, time and energy. There are better things to do in life. [1]https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/c/c8/Lo...