In 2002, Mitch Kapor Bet $20k That No AI Would Pass the Turing Test Before 2029
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Mitch Kapor made a $20k bet in 2002 that no AI would pass the Turing Test before 2029, sparking discussion on the feasibility of AI achieving human-like intelligence.
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I find it puts us in a very surreal philosophical place. In 2002 I would also have said that passing the Turing test would require AGI. It's pretty clear that we have passed the Turing test without AGI.
I suspect Kurzweil would still take the bet that we'll hit AGI before 2029. I suspect that he's wrong, and that real AGI will require a significant climbdown before making new progress forward. But I'm definitely not 20 grand sure.