Global Use of Coal Hit Record High in 2024

Deployment of new solar etc. is doubling very roughly every year, worldwide. In the year that solar++ deployment was 0.1% of total power use, total energy use only needed to grow by 0.11% in order for fossil to grow. In the next doubling cycle the numbers were 0.2% and 0.21%, then 0.4% and 0.41%, then 0.8% and 0.81%.

Still trivial, but then we got to then 1.6% and 1.61%, and around this time the mine operators' forecasts would look uncertain. Growth is ≥1.61% most years, but not every, and by now some forecast slides would say things like "regenerative power now took 50% of the market growth, up from 25% last year" if the market growth was about 3%.

We're now in a doubling after that: 3.2% and 3.21%, and 3.21% growth not something that happens every year, so the miners' forecast will say "regenerative power takes most of the market growth and is still increasing".

In the next doubling cycle it's 6.4% and 6.41%, and AFAICT we've never had ≥6.41% growth for any length of time. If we do have that in the coming months, it's only a year or so until we each 12.8% and 12.81%, etc, and who cares about that single year?