Explosions Reported in Venezuelan Capital Caracas
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As explosions rocked Caracas, speculation erupted online about the potential fall of Maduro's regime, with some predicting a swift collapse and others warning of further destabilization. Commenters weighed in on the likelihood of US intervention, with some drawing parallels to past regime changes in Panama and Grenada, while others cautioned against the dangers of military occupation and the "rally round the flag" effect that could bolster support for the Venezuelan government. The discussion highlighted the complexities of foreign intervention, with many questioning the potential consequences of US involvement and others expressing skepticism about the prospects for a peaceful transition. Amidst the debate, a consensus emerged that Maduro's regime is unpopular, but the prospect of US occupation could be even more divisive.
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There will be a decrease in oil production, marginally boosting world prices. What's probably being taken out right now is the regime's ability to react in any meaningful way to the oil embargo.
It will also allow Maduro to throw his hands in the air and blame the US for all of VZLA's ills going forward. More poverty, more suffering, more migration.
The question is whether the Venezuelan situation is more like those two, or more like Vietnam / Iraq / Afghanistan.
When have we not heard this line? When has it even been true?
We always hear it, it's never true.
The problems started after...
So it did not eventually "prove breezy".
For some reason we wisely keep the machineries of government in place in Japan and Germany post-war and threw that lesson out the window in Iraq. Always boggles my mind, how the CPA ran things immediately into the ground.
As you say, this check has been in the mail for a while, so how are vulernable helicopters flying over caracas without any resistance? One dude with a MANPADS could take them down.
Decapitation is also the only aparent strategic goal of this operation, so it's hardly far fetched to suggest they going for 'one and done'.
Anyway, beers on me if I'm wrong :)
Presumably there are SF and/or airborne units executing coordinated strikes on the ground right now. Most likely the 160th, as they were deployed there last I checked.
https://www.clarin.com/mundo/respuesta-nicolas-maduro-explos...
Your source, in translation, describes no specific responses, but largely that "The regime ordered the deployment of military and police commands throughout the country".
This is not inconsistent with, say, the US making an offer that Venezuelan military command in charge of air defences couldn't refuse, say, to stand down and not challenge US air supremacy.
I'm not saying that this did happen, but it's one plausible scenario, particularly for a country whose core competency is literally manufacturing US dollars, the most-prized currency worldwide.
People here saying it's "unjustified" should go and talk to a displaced Venezuelan.
But a military invasion of another country to commit regime change is literally what Russia tried to do to Ukraine.
America has blood on it's hands yet again.
EDIT: If the reports are true that Maduro has been captured and the fighting stops, then that's the best resolution one could hope out of this horrible situation. I pray for the Venezuelan people.
Russia is trying to annex Ukraine. They took part of it in 2014, then came back for more, and then organized sham annexation referendums in the regions they did control. Whatever the US is trying to achieve in Venezuela, it's probably not that. All war is deplorable, but some lead to good outcomes and some to bad ones.
And to start with they were trying to achieve this through regime change via a "surgical" (by their standards) strike on the government and capital.
That failed.
America is doing this explicitly to take control of Venezuela's resources. It's no different.
Presumably we're only trying to annex their oil reserves
I know some sheltered academics on Epstein's list disagree with that but that's a hill I will die on
There have been widespread protests in Venezuela throughout Maduro’s regime, but especially after the election.
The reaction I'm seeing from second-hand and direct reddit comments from actual Venezualans seems really positive.
But afterwards, there's going to be a free-for-all struggle between ACTUAL cartels. That will be indistinguishable ftom a civil war.
* - Claims 2 years ago about the removal of Hamas; assassinations of militia leaders leading to peace
The purpose of the assassinations is security, not peace. Peace is a bilateral process and it does confer security, but if it's not on the table then you can't force the issue unilaterally.
Otherwise there would have been american aircraft shot down with russian tech. Or really any kind of support except empty words.
Yes, because as we all know Russian military technology is completely on par with that of the United States.
The open question is rather, if the S-500 system can beat the F35 stealth capabilities (nobody know that as far as I know as it was never tried). Not that russians systems are useless against ordinary planes and helicopters.
And I suspect there were deals with parts of the venezuelan military as well. The weak reaction indicates as much.
And everything else potentially dangerous, active radar and anti air systems were destroyed in the first wave of attacks. Possible with the help of special forces.
SEAD was conducted by both ground and air assets, Israel only has about 30 F-35’s and Iran is massive.
The F-35 is “invisible” ;)
Iran’s air defenses were either obliterated or rendered useless, hence how Israel was flying slow ass drones at low altitude above their capital on day 3.
The US is even more capable when it comes to SEAD.
The gap between the west and everyone else when it comes to both military technology and doctrine is massive.
It's not just the west. China is likely on par. Russia was near par in terms of defense but it's now been attrited.
<https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Radar_cross_section>
The power stays in Maduros party and just goes To the VP. It’s anyone’s guess what happens next - but nothing changing is a relatively easy bet.
US corporations will be brought in to exploit oil the same way they did in Iraq where they actually had to amend the constitution to allow for foreign corporations in.
The Venezuelan opposition leader was extracted and moved to Europe and I assume the US wants to install her. Maybe that is more likely, but a military takeover before the US can install whatever puppet government they're hoping for.
Is this likely to increase inflation? And what does this mean for FX -- are we likely to see a further weakening of the dollar, particularly against ex EUR?
The worst-case outcome for the US is that it gets pulled into another unpopular, long-term conflict that undermines its international standing and allows assorted rogues to advance their goals (Ukraine, Taiwan, who knows what else).
The best-case outcome is that this is a successful regime change operation which nets the US a resource-rich trading partner, undermines Russia, and scares Iran. How you assess the likelihood of these outcomes sort of depends on your priors.
I would say, however, that the recent history of US military interventions doesn't inspire a lot of confidence. Venezuela is nowhere near being the cluster---- that we've dealt in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, etc, but who knows.
There are 2 differences that stand out.
Intelligence seems more capable nowadays compared to 2003, probably due to better cyber/SIGINT. It took 3 years for the coalition to find Saddam despite a large ground presence. I wouldn't give Maduro more than a month if the US was intent on taking him out, after the capabilities that we saw in Iran and South Lebanon the last two years that simply did not exist 2 decades ago. For the first time, war has been inverted, and it's the regime that dies first instead of the soldiers.
Second difference is the absence of political Islamism as a dominant ideology in the culture. This makes it more comparable to regime change wars against Japan and Germany in WW2 than recent wars in MENA.
Historically, fascism and authoritarianism communism have been temporary secular hysterias that come and go. Ukraine post-Maidan, for example, embraced democracy because they tried communism already and learned that it sucks.
Islamism seems more potent and durable and always rears its head in instability like in Bangladesh most recently, or the Arab Spring before. My explanation for this durability is that it is tied in with religion and is believed to be divinely ordained, rather than just a human made system that sucks.
This is unlike Christianity which is structurally secular by doctrine ('render unto Caesar').
Christianity went through three centuries of religious warfare starting in the early 1500s, with per-capita death tolls higher than WW2. Before that, it launched centuries-long crusades into the Middle East - at some point wiping out the non-Christian people of the city of Jerusalem, which was, and eventually returned to being, a multi-religious city under Muslim rule.
Radical Islamism has only existed since 1979 because of the Iranian revolution. It looks like it's on the decline now. It might have only emerged because of failed efforts at modernising. Europe and the West might have only lapped MENA because they were geographically well-placed to pillage the Americas - not because of any cultural superiority.
> I could say the same thing about radical fascism in Germany and Japan, and yet.
Germany and Japan stopped being fascist because nobody was going to let them go back to gassing people.
That's besides the point though. The point is that Islam is a doctrinally theocratic religion. There are no carve-outs for secularism like there is in Christianity which moderate Muslims can then use as a theological and political justification for liberal democracy. That makes it much more sticky.
And would you look at that, Maduro has already been captured after 3 hours. This is why it categorically not like Iraq 2003.
There is no need to scare Iran. The mullahs are already scared shitless and were utterly humiliated this summer. They could have easily been removed, but it was decided that it was not worth it, as the next regime could be even worse. A weak, scared Iran is the best outcome.
Possibly dragging supply down, with no net effect at best.
This is going to hurt China economically, and in a way that isn’t going to be seen as targeted at China or unfair by international community.
Russia’s production and refining capacity has been seeing attrition from Ukraine’s efforts. They’re producing less oil, selling it for less, and for rubles that each buy less.
I’ve said before on HN that I thought Venezuela was intended to soak up Russian resources - this is just the next step.
What is the risk calculation one would perform before attempting to invade Taiwan while Trump is calling shots? Whatever else you think about Trump, for better or worse, he is not bound by establishment prerogatives: make the "wrong" move, as Trump exclusively defines it, and anything — literally any conceivable thing plus a distant horizon of things you are cognitively incapable of conceiving — might happen.
Maduro is in a cage somewhere pondering this right now. Iran's leaders are all thinking about the threats Trump made not 48 hours ago, possibly to the great benefit of rebels in the streets right now. Federal investigators are closing in on Walz and friends in Minnesota right now: he could find himself in a cell within earshot of Maduro at any time.
Don't forget to breathe!
Actually, thinking about it more, this makes little sense. There's very little upside (and it's far off), while there's plenty of short and long-term downside. Great geopolitical strategizing out there.
I fucking hate the United States of America so much. Why were we saddled with such a sadistic blight on the world?
That being said, how many continents are we left from being able to call that a bona fide world war ? Can we count Africa as "in a state of war per default", leaving only Oceania ? Should Australians brace themselves ?
Edit, for the benefit of all: /s
Australians are currently paying him billions for 2nd hand nuclear submarines (which are not likely to ever be delivered), so that they can protect themselves from their biggest trading partner.
The deal is admittedly shakey, but so is most things the US is involved in these days.
But hey, if making up a bogus threat is what it takes to sell guns…
Comedy is becoming reality: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sgspkxfkS4k
If that was the goal he would put González in charge and not go after oil and minerals.
If you're being honest, though, you would admit that was never the goal.
The Australians made China blink - I don't have any worries about them.
I actually believe the majority of children who need to study geography would prefer Greenland (which has a lot of ice) to be called Iceland, and Iceland (which doesn't have a lot of ice) to be called Greenland.
I think a majority consensus would be easily achieved.
Language is defined by how people use it, not decreed top down. It would just be convenient if the very apogee of power (despite the deep state) concurred with and recognized the wisdom of the least represented in the world: children.
And the media will pretend this just happened “out of nowhere” like Ukraine, pretending history literally up to yesterday doesn’t exist because it’s inconvenient.
And did Biden not pardon a _lot_ of sketchy people, including his own son..?
Come on, try harder
Ignoring diplomacy? Are you accusing the US of ignoring diplomacy, because that's the only half ways reasonable interpretation.
This is weak and pathetic misinformation. I guess it will take a few days before the propaganda machine gets going to try to justify this gigantic waste of taxpayer money and pointless destruction. Hopefully the pros get involved because this is just sad.
Let me put it as a simple question: how are the people in America doing nothing to stop this any different from Russians doing the exact same?
If anything, Russians face a lot more resistance to protest, no?
So come on, stop silently downvoting me from your cozy AC'd homes while your leaders are warmongering for oil and Epstein distractions, and answer that simple question please, instead of making utterly transparent strawman arguments. It's a very simple question.
Repeat after me: individuals are not systems.
sigh Nevermind, it's obviously way too much to ask for a simple answer to a simple question after being strawmanned.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2026/jan/03/caracas-e...