Evs Are Depreciating Faster Than Gas-Powered Cars
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The article discusses how electric vehicles (EVs) are depreciating faster than gas-powered cars, sparking a debate among commenters about the causes and implications of this trend.
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Thanks, but I'm hanging in to my old Subaru.
Just saw the Audi etron gt has amazing deals on used cars. Then I saw a new model coming out with better battery, more power, better range, and more features. Suddenly last year’s model is way less compelling.
And, you know, there were these flip phones that worked pretty much everywhere that held a useful charge up to a couple weeks that you could use to call AAA in a pinch. They stood in quite handily in place of the integrated spyware present today.
To quote Corey Doctrow: Investors love the sound of a “software-based car” because they understand that a gadget that is connected to the cloud is ripe for rent-extraction, because with software comes a bundle of “IP rights” that let the company control its customers, critics and competitors:
A “software-based car” gets to mobilize the state to enforce its “IP,” which allows it to force its customers to use authorized mechanics (who can, in turn, be price-gouged for licensing and diagnostic tools). “IP” can be used to shut down manufacturers of third party parts. “IP” allows manufacturers to revoke features that came with your car and charge you a monthly subscription fee for them.
and then there are situations like: https://insideevs.com/news/723669/fisker-inc-bankruptcy-chap...
or the recent fiasco with e-Jeeps disabled by the side of the road by a freaking entertainment system update.
They're objects that lose value when you use them. That's normal.
But hey, that just means better used EV prices for the rest of us. You can get some high end gently used ones for a great price.
—
“ For Tesla owners in the U.S., their 2023 Model Ys are worth 42% less than what they paid two years ago, while a Ford F-150 truck bought the same year depreciated just 20%. Older EV models depreciate even faster than newer ones. ”
Why buy a car that depreciates hella fast?
Not sure why this would be hard to understand.
If the value of your EV has dropped to $10k and you get paid out that much for an accident, then in theory you should be able to buy a similar condition EV on the used car market for $10k. What's the problem with that?
People make irrational decisions. That's a fact.
People "should" do things they don't. That's a fact.
The question is not, "What would a logically-driven being do?", but "What are people doing?"
If you're trying to get people to switch en masse to EVs, it's not good for everyone to be in perpetual "ehh there's gonna be way better ones around the corner" mode.
> If the value of your EV has dropped to $10k and you get paid out that much for an accident, then in theory you should be able to buy a similar condition EV on the used car market for $10k. What's the problem with that?
The problem is when your loan balance is $20K and you're only getting a $10K payoff...
That can happen with a conventional car as well, which is why gap insurance exists. The regular insurance should still give you the replacement price (which would be the depreciated value).
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/u/0/d/1F5IQOynIawoXiJPV...
It does not seem remarkable that a new product takes some time to find its market price, and COGS goes down as supply chain improvements are made.
And there was a $7,500 tax credit at time of purchase introduced in Jan 2023. At least the graph comparing Model Y to Ford F150 seems expected.
A bar of gold will hold value a lot better than a car, but that doesn't mean a car is a worse purchase.
I think we can say that EV and ICE has nearly same utility, perks on either side. Faster refuelling vs. being able to do it at home.
Now next we can compare operational costs, what is the cost of fuel/electricity and maintenance. With home charging yes EVs are ahead.
But if we take into account Purchase price minus price you get when selling. Well EVs are often more expensive to start with. And then they depreciate more so you get less as an percentage from original purchase price.
Now it can very well be that you come lot of ahead in scenarios where you replace car with new one every 3 or 5 years with ICEs.
So total cost of ownership does matter. And big chunk of that is depreciation. Unless you are one of the few who buy new and then drive it to junk yard.
If in 5 years, your EV (that had similar utility as an ICE when you bought it) has lost so much value relative to a new EV, then the new EV must offer much more utility over both the old EV and the old ICE, in which case your ICE should have lost a similar amount of value.
I.e, I've only bought cars that are 10+ years (exactly due to the depreciation factor!), but most other people buy or lease as new of a car as they possibly can afford. Doesn't make financial sense to me, yet it's done so very often.
They're objects that disintegrate in the atmosphere at some point when you use them. That's normal, it even has a name: rapid unscheduled disassembly.
It says that it deprecates faster than other type of cars which should be worse in this particular criteria
Nobody profits from EV sales except Tesla (and 1/7 Chinese companies) [1].
[1] https://www.carscoops.com/2025/03/only-four-ev-brands-are-pr...
In Germany, you can buy used luxury cars at high discount due to being fuel inefficient for years now, and that is with barely a price increase for gas and barely 1 l/100km to through 3 l/100km cars taking up more market share.
Is BYD any different?
The expected repair cost was ~1/10 that: https://www.thedrive.com/news/41000-rivian-fender-bender-act...
My beat up truck got quoted 6k to replace a dent caused by a fender bender.
What?
https://parts.tesla.com/en-US/landingpage
https://epc.tesla.com/en-US/catalogs/dab210aa-2a7d-43b3-9e9b...
Anyone can by them directly from Tesla.
The flip side of this is a general over correction as the new car tax break ends used EVs are really compelling today. A slightly used Long Range Model 3 is a far better option than their new Base Model 3.
Eventually ICE cars were designed for their resale value so people buying a new car every 3 or 5 years could afford to spend more money. That’s coming for EVs as the technology improves battery degradation means the range sweet spot will be chosen to keep the used market happy not just new buyers etc.
UK and EU are defacto making Petrol/Diesel cars production uneconomical / illegal. California IIRC are also has a deadline for Petrol/Diesel cars IIRC.
> And why a massive downgrade?
The biggest ones for me are:
1) Range. I have a 700 mile range on my car. My old car before that could do 600 miles. I can travel from one end of the UK to another with 1/2 fuel stops. I have family I see regularly on the other side of the country. I can do the trip in 4 providing good traffic In an Electric vehicle that time is 5-7 hours due to the extra stops required. I know this because my mother and step father recently came to visit me and they have an electric vehicle. If you regularly do longer trips even 30 minutes off the road is a long time. I don't stop for anything other than a bathroom break when I do a long journey.
2) Charging time. I live in an apartment. I would need to charge the car away from home. That is a massive PITA IMO. I spend maybe 5 minutes in a petrol station, compared to 30 minutes at a charger.
3) Almost every modern vehicle car has a bunch of annoyances in the vehicle. The electric cars I have seen have this dialled up to 11.
4) Cost. Electric vehicles are really expensive IMO. I can get a cheap second hand diesel for a few thousand in reasonable condition.
> And why don't you change the channel off of Fox occasionally?
Snarky responses like this is why people become resentful. Just because people have a different view point to yours doesn't mean they have been brainwashed by someone.
A lot of us are happy with the vehicles we already have. I simply do not have an interest in ever owning an electric vehicle. I also prefer older vehicles and bikes because they are simpler and I prefer the way they operate.
A lot of these themes btw was explored by Demolition Man with Sly Stallone. The "resistance" figures to the "regime" are eating meat and driving a v8 muscle car.
I suggest you watch that, it is a fun movie and Sandra Bullock looks gorgeous in it.
The electricity and ICE fuel costs should be included if the battery is included. The battery is some sort of upfront fuel cost in a way the gas tank isn't.
Since mileage wear is proportional to fuel use anyway.
But we're discussing resale value specifically, and it doesn't matter if you spent $25 or $50 "filling it up" last week when you sell it.
Resale value of EVs doesn't depend on mileage nowhere near as much as ICE cars. EVs are just much simpler machines and electric motors can do a million miles with no maintenance, and the only maintenance you have is the oil in the differential, which is often simpler because it is single-speed. Compare that to thousand different mechanical parts that all wear out in a ICE engine. Which is why ICE cars resale value is determined by the odometer.
What drives EV resale value is the health of the battery, which is influenced more by recharge cycles and straight up passage of time.
And the anecdotal evidence of a commercial fleet going bankrupt and not getting much for their EVs... Well yeah, would you buy from such a source? I wouldn't. They usually don't follow longevity advice for battery charging, because they have to optimize for time-in-use.
As an anecdote, I bought all my ICE cars second hand, and would usually sell them 3-4 years later just before major maintenance was needed. My EV is now 8 years old, runs like the day I got it and had 1 repair, when the motor that drives the window up and down broke and battery capacity is still the same, or if it changed it's such a small change I didn't notice. I don't expect to sell any time soon, if ever. I expect I will just do a battery swap in 5-10 years.
I’m not saying the article is wrong I’d just like to see broader representation (Chevy bolt, lucid air, etc).
ICEs have MANY wear-out-fast parts (where "fast" is relative) requiring lube, and lube itself suggests the risk of frictional degradation.
The EV needs less regular maintenance because it has less fluids though.
But on an EV, that's basically the only thing that needs somewhat regular "oil changes". Whereas ICE motors & transmissions also need fluid changes regularly.
I think Porsche has done a 2-speed EV transmission and Lucid moved the differential inside the motor and has two-reduction gear sets on either side, but those are both unusual designs.
I inquired about a battery swap and it's around $10->12k. I'm seriously considering it in the next couple of years as I see that as buying another 9->10 years of life for my car.
I might grab a used EV instead, though, as the one thing my car lacks is a heat pump, which kinda sucks in the winter.
If a dealer charges you between $10K to $12K for a swap out, that's the "fuck you for not buying a car that makes the dealership more money" price. Several third-party vendors refurbish and sell EV batteries for much less.
I know what you mean by not having a heat pump sucking. The Volt has resistive heating for wintertime, and it definitely drains the battery. I dress warm and use the seat heaters when I'm driving by myself.
Does it matter where you live, or where the vehicle was originally purchased/registered?
We can only dream of a day when battery packs are a standardized commodity, and as easy to change as motor oil. But modern industry is far too extractive.
No dice for me, I'm at 170,000 miles.
Assuming you averaged 30mpg, you also put $20k in gas through it. At the current US average retail electricity price of 17 cents per kWh and EV efficiency of 250Wh/mile, recharging would be $7,200 for that same distance. The fuel savings alone are more than the cost of replacing the battery.
That’s assuming DIY, but even if you’re paying $80 per change. If you do them every 7,500… you’re still $1,800 total.
$12k is plenty for a whole new engine, possibly a new engine and transmission on an economy car. For example, Ford will happily sell you a brand new 2.3 Ecoboost for a Mustang or Ranger or Explorer for $6k: https://www.trackey.ford.com/part/M-6007-23TA
An EV maker that sells parts at inflated prices including the battery will get less and less customers.
As those customers look at catalog prices for important parts including the battery before buying an EV.
Random web page on the topic:
https://www.recurrentauto.com/research/costs-ev-battery-repl...
Another listing price:
https://evshop.eu/en/13-batteries
Note the used LFP 55 kWh tesla pack at $4140 so ... $75/kWh.
In a situation when we're being told to completely give up on apples (ICE cars) and switch entirely to oranges (EVs), I am afraid we'd have to make exactly the comparison you find so distasteful for some strange reason. They are both vehicles, sorry, fruits, after all.
It's fine to compare ICE and EV.
It's not fine to be shoddy with data.
A lot of charging is influenced by convenience and lifestyle rather than miles, for example:
People charge at work from 68% to 75% because is convenient.
People always draining the battery because they don't have charging at home.
Commercial EVs being charged based on loading/unloading schedules etc.
...
Isn't that almost the best possible way to charge a Li-Ion battery?
I mean, keeping it closer to 50% might be better, but the returns are so diminished by that point that it's a rounding error of a rounding error.
I keep my limit to 75% unless I have a long drive planned, and nearly all my charging at home. I'll probably have <5% degradation after 100,000 miles.
Suspension and tires are the biggest items for EVs. The twist is cheap owner can neglect those and keep driving past service window with ripped bushings and clapped out tires until hitting that magic 3 year goal, then you buy used EV in need of 4 of everything.
In my previous vehicle I replaced the transition, engine, brakes, etc. but I sold it once the interior wasn't "nice" anymore.
This aspect does track between EVs and conventional vehicles.
If solid state batteries actually come out, they probably won't be retrofitted into existing EVs. That's a bummer, but I guess by the time I'm ready to change cars self driving will be a real thing (the Waymo kind, not the Tesla kind).
Though this is true of ICE vehicles as well although CarPlay has eliminated that to a significant degree.
tbh, it's kind of baffling to me how it seems like nobody else is interested in offering software updates to infotainment without needing to take it to a dealer's service bay, if it's even offered at all.
When I bought my Tesla, at the time, "Streaming" (Which was silently powered by Slacker Radio) was the only music streaming integration, but Spotify was added shortly after my purchase. They've since added YouTube Music, Apple Music, and Tidal integrations.
Map data is fetched on the fly. No need to manually install updates. Hell, how many cars even make that an option? My in-laws have an old Prius (I think first gen, maybe second gen?) with built-in Nav, but has never received a map update. Their nav doesn't even know their home street exists.
It doesn't help that so many cars have lackluster infotainment systems. I had a Subaru BRZ in 2016 and was kinda stoked that I could play MP3s from a USB drive, since back then I actually somewhat maintained a collection. I figured I'd get a thumb drive with all my MP3s on it. But the interface completely flattened the directory structure and put them in alphabetical order. There'd be no way to play a single album in sequence if I had multiple albums by the same artist. My folder organization became worthless.
But I've digressed...yeah, more car manufacturers should offer software updates for their infotainment.
I mean, that sounds quite poor on both counts TBQH. I bought a used 2002 Honda Accord in 2004 and drove it until last year with little more than regular oil changes. I expect to get the same kind of life out of the Mazda 3 I replaced it with. Anything less than 10 years out of a car sounds like something went terribly wrong to me.
The resale value drops much faster than the battery health. Hyundai has been tracking the degregation rates of the batteries in their Ioniq 5 vehicles and they've been holding up surprisingly well. Most of them have >90% battery capacity at over 100k miles. Their data was sparse for 250k miles, but half of them were still over 90% capacity.
I had trouble finding the original video, but the data is included in this summary: https://youtu.be/s3DMd0e4loQ?t=17s
So, either you were really lucky with ICE or extremely unlucky with EVs.
I don't see that I was especially lucky with the ICE components, I did all the scheduled maintenance plus some other misc things (water pump x2, bad transmission bushing, etc.) (Oil and filters just don't add up to all that much - I followed the maintenance schedule using high mileage synthetic and high-mileage filters and the total cost was under $100/year at a dealership.)
I also don't see that I was especially unlucky with the non-ICE components, I've got a 13-year sample size of steady, unremarkable maintenance to tires, paint, brakes (these always corroded from salt before they wore down, so no real EV savings to be had on brakes), misc trim pieces, etc. Looking at my Excel sheet of maintenance, I'd expect these costs to be higher on nearly any EV, just because the ICE was a cheap econobox with cheap parts (e.g. tires were small, TPMS sensors were cheap, only 4 lug nuts, etc.), and any newer vehicle is going to have more parts that need replacement/repair, and those parts are going to be more expensive.
2. The only thing left are tires and washer fluid. I’m not convinced that these make up 2/3 maintenance costs. All of the fluids — oil, coolant, transmission — plus components that wear down/need replacing (alternator, transmission) — there’s no way these are only 1/3 of all maintenance.
2. Oil/coolant/transmission just don’t add up to much. Oil was $100/year, there was like one other fluid-related and one transmission related service over 13 years. There are many things other than tires and washer fluids (though tires are a fairly large line item) checking my spreadsheet for non-ICE-specific costs, there’s paint maintenance, general cleaning costs, a seatbelt receptacle, a cruise control buttons, roof exterior rubber trim, a headrest, a window switch, washer fluid spray nozzles, lug nuts, wiper blades, shocks, struts, door weather stripping, rivets holding the front plastic splashguard on, headlight bulbs, headlight buffing, washer fluid reservoir cap, replacement speaker, turn signal switch, windshield repair, backup light switch.
My costs lines up with much of the available data, e.g. see https://www.motortrend.com/news/government-ev-ice-maintenanc...
“According to the office, internal-combustion-engine-powered (ICE) vehicles cost $0.101 per mile to maintain. [..] Full battery electric vehicles, on the other hand, are much, much less expensive to run and maintain, coming in at just $0.061 per mile.”
That lines up fairly closely to my experience - their EVs still have about 60% of the maintenance costs of ICE vehicles.
In my somewhat limited experience, Japanese cars often need brakes around the 40k mark, and German cars go more like 60k.
I'd like to see them compare two similarly priced SUVs.
I am sure the ICE vehicle will still depreciate slower, but perhaps not as drastically different.
The buyers of these two vehicles used in the example are very different.
Another market failure to adequately assist us in making the best choice.
Do you expect it will be an OEM part or a remanufactured battery?
Traditional gas cars also have wear and tear with parts on the "consumables" spectrum, but these are considered more open to state inspection by a semi knowledgeable amateur, and the car's value is less tied to one specific black-box item.
https://www.p3-group.com/en/p3-updates/battery-aging-in-prac...
No it won't. Road wear scales as the fourth power [0] in relationship to axle load, so even a modest increase in weight is still hugely outweighed by the damage done by a fully-loaded semi tractor-trailer (80k lbs). Cars, even EVs, are negligible in terms of road wear.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fourth_power_law
There are many road surfaces that semi trucks cannot drive on, even once. This comparison is really far out of reach. A better comparison would be to a Honda Civic or Ram 1500.
Versus the situation with dirt and gravel. Such a huge percentage of highway miles driven in proportion on gravel and dirt, everyone going to work and back home on gravel, yep.
EVs do cause more damage than most ICE by virtue of being heavier. But you know what causes even more damage? Heavy commercial vehicles. The overall proportion of damage is still vastly outweighed (heh) by a single heavy vehicle. Multiplied by thousands upon thousands of heavy semis day after day after day. The proportional amount is insignificant.
Source: a pavement engineer in my circle.
And I’d take issue with your point about surfaces that semis can’t drive on, even once. Which are those? Dirt mining and logging roads that one might immediately reach for? Those are traveled by loaded semis already. Worn paths in fields? Already driven by loaded grain trailers, but they’re only used a few times per year. Source for that: I grew up on farms during harvest time. Perhaps quaint covered wood bridges over creeks in the middle of nowhere? Oh, I know! Those rope bridges over rivers in Peru, I know I’m itching to drive my new Peterbilt over that.
I don’t know why I waste my time refuting contrarian “nuh-uh!” comments that are posted just for the sake of being contrarian. It’s like the only thing posted here.
The issue isn’t that the batteries can’t be replaced, it’s that a new battery is quite expensive. Substantially more than a new motor for a typical ICE car.
Now you could just exchange battery as a module and replace NCA for Solid State in the future like HDD in the computer and car would be driving just fine.
I like the direction of https://slate.auto. Module, bring-your-own-computer. We'll see if they allow affordable trade-in's for upgrading battery/motors.
They could also work with CommaAI for autonomy.
Perhaps you're not into cars much but if you compare top cars on track days etc. you will know there have definitely been huge changes. Though during the last 20 years repairability and reliability also took a hit.
How so? Are those not improvements?
Said no pedestrian hidden behind my A-pillar (just kidding I still drive a 1980s minivan, one of the poor people ones, not the hipster one, don't get your hopes up).
But are they fun? My main experience of powerful cars is you hit the speed limit or a traffic jam within about 10 seconds.
I have more fun on my 1/3 hp ebike than my 200 hp car which suffers from the above.
I did the same mountain pass in my Subaru recently and didn't even notice I was going 20mph over the speed limit. The engine was silent and still responsive.
How about the transmission lol
And it'll only weigh 4,500 lbs.
The newest vehicle reliability advances are _less_ reliability via:
- cylinder deactivation
- ubiquitous turbos
- gasoline direction injection
- more computers
- generally higher cost of repairs (eg: if a car from 2023 needed a headlight it would cost much more than a car from 1998 needing a headlight, and even if they both had the same failure rate the reliability of the new car would be worse from cost alone)
For example, for the longest time Nissan CVTs were "nonrebuildable, send it back and buy a reman" now any idiot can rebuild one for under a grand in parts.
4L60 and E4OD rebuilds were also $$$ for a long time now they're dirt cheap too.
I'm not writing about 50+ year old platforms, around which a huge market of suppliers and technicians has evolved. The ICE transmissions GM sells today are vastly more complex, with zero design commonality with the classic stuff, and enjoy none of the benefit of long adoption that make the classic stuff cost effective. Further, and this is the important part, because the lifecycle of everything ICE is much shorter now, measured in years as opposed to decades, they never will.
So ten years from now, when your circa 2020 10L60 dies, there won't be a transmission shop in every town that's equipped and stocked to deal with it cheaply. The cost will be greater than the value of the vehicle. And that's my point: these vehicles are not going to be economic to operate out of warranty.
My ass.
You can trace all these designs back forever. It's more "inspired by" than actual incremental revision in most cases. There is just about nothing but some vague shapes that look similar and maybe some bolt lengths that are common between a 4L60 and the TH350 era stuff.
>Further, and this is the important part, because the lifecycle of everything ICE is much shorter now, measured in years as opposed to decades, they never will.
The average car on the road is lasting longer as the years go on. People said the same things when fuel injection came out.
>So ten years from now, when your circa 2020 10L60 dies, there won't be a transmission shop in every town that's equipped and stocked to deal with it cheaply. The cost will be greater than the value of the vehicle.
I'll take that bet. Modern transmissions are stupidly easy to rebuild from a skills point of view because they replace all sorts of mechanical adjustment with "hurr hurr we just PWM the solenoid to make it go BRRT and if the BRRT is too rough the computer algorithm will turn it down". Yeah there's more components, but those are easi.
i don't agree, my friend has been driving the same Toyota LandCruiser for 20 years. I will have no problems handing my 2016 4runner down to my kid who turns 16 this December. The 4runner will last another 10 years easy.
Respectfully I specifically wrote "new." 20 year old SUVs predate the issues of new vehicles.
> my 2016 4runner
Even a 2016 vehicle predates what I'm pointing out. A 2016 4runner likely has a 270hp naturally aspirated V6 with modest power and a relatively basic 5 speed auto transmission. A 2025 4runner is a turbo charged 4 cylinder making nearly 2hp/cu in. and an 8 speed transmission. The former is much simpler and thus economic to maintain and repair compared to the latter.
ICE vehicle drivetrains have changed radically in only the last few years. They're almost universally using forced induction, integrated into unserviceable castings, to attain far higher volumetric efficiency, equivalent to high performance engines of not long ago. Gone are the 4-5 speed transmissions and transaxles: 8-10+ speed is the norm, and the complexity follows here as well. They are absolutely intolerant of neglect and abuse. Repairs are complex and likely to fail: manufacturers have taken to replacing major assemblies in leu of attempting repairs as they would have in the past. Part of that is due to the unserviceable nature of these components. Another part is the lack of dealer talent to deal with their own products. Another part is that the manufacturing lifecycle of major assemblies is now extremely short: only a couple years, whereas 10+ years was normal for common platforms as recently as the the 2010s.
What this means is: when these new products are no longer supported by manufacturers, who will drop their supply obligations rapidly as they legally can due to short lifecycles, parts will be fabulously expensive and difficult to obtain and the skills and tools necessary to repair them will be rarified and also expensive. Post-warranty ICE vehicles will be uneconomic, full stop.
But also, if you have a vehicle with a sealed headlight, you're probably not having to change it every other winter.
- tons of sensors with limited lifespans
- more complicated transmissions with more gears
- auto start/stop
Pretty much all of these reliability reducers are manufacturers trying to eek a little more MPGs by throwing lots of complicated technology at the problem, which introduces a lot more failure points.
Headlights and taillights on my current vehicle are supposedly around $1500 each, mostly due to a bunch of sophisticated sensors being built in.
Back in the 80s headlights were standardized (in the US at least) - you either had rectangular or circular. They were available at every auto parts store. Now they're a special order item from the dealer.
There are oil tests that confirm this. Also, 10,000+ mile oil changes are not new, and there are tons of used vehicles on the market, running around with long oil change intervals, and high mileage.
At least that's what happened in 2022-2023 when prices of EVs and ICE cars quickly converged. No surprise existing EVs on the road deprecated rapidly.
As the battery tech and service infrastructure matures we probably will see less of this though.
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