Colleges See Significant Drop in International Students as Fall Semester Begins
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As the fall semester kicks off, US colleges are grappling with a significant decline in international students, sparking a lively debate about the broader implications of shifting demographics. Some commenters pointed out that this trend is part of a larger conversation about population dynamics, referencing the infamous "Population Bomb" book and its dire predictions, now seemingly ironic given current concerns about falling birth rates. The discussion veered into the realm of medical care, with many highlighting the artificial shortage of doctors driven by the AMA's restrictive policies on medical schools and residency spots. Amidst the discussion, a consensus emerged that certain industries, like medicine, are not subject to the usual market forces, leading to shortages and inefficiencies.
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Most students are coming from countries with significantly worse demographic trends. The population inversion is already here but it is being felt by schools first.
In 10 years it will be for new employees, in 40 years it will be shortages in medical care.
This is kind of misleading. There were 16 nonprofit college and university closures in 2024 [1]
I also have reservations about making predictions of what will happen in 10 years, much less 40. There are challenges relating to demographic change but it's not predetermined as you present it.
Every time someone makes a confident prediction about the future 10 or more years out all I can think of is the Population Bomb book [2]
1. https://www.insidehighered.com/news/business/financial-healt...
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Population_Bomb
Population is an extremely complex, dynamic system, and I don't think we have any way of actually predicting it -- all we can do is look at trend lines and make projections.
(caveat - not a social scientist; just my current opinion; etc.)
Maybe we'll have a billion humans living in orbit in a century. Unsure if they'll be willing to pay Earth Tax though.
At small scales you can have them give up their culture and assimilate but at replacement scales you just turn your country into a third world country. That's completely unacceptable.
One is invited, the other is unwanted.
No one wanted or invited any of that.
Population Bomb's core claim was about the instantaneous rate of reproduction. This is a complex stochastic process. It could drop to 0 overnight if people decide no more babies.
But population decline is easier to model mid term because you don't need to make almost any assumptions. The next 18 years of university intake are all already born and there ain't a lot of them. The only way for them is down.
Clearly, what's beyond that is hard to forecast, but even then making a pretty good forecast for the next 25 years only depends on forecasting births in the next 7 years.
Fortunately, almost twenty years before the Population Bomb book, others such as Alfred Sauvy were already warning against confident overpopulation arguments. They suggested more reasonable arguments such as examining countries on a case-by-case basis [1].
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Sauvy#Key_ideas
Medical care shortages are mostly a function that hospitals don't want to pay nurses market rate and then treat them poorly.
The exception is doctors. The shortage there is completely driven by their guild (AMA) successfully lobbying for a restriction on the number of medical schools.
In software you can be a nobody off the street, straight out of prison, if someone pays you money to write software then that is that.
In the software world we also take on zero fucking liability for just building software on the street or is your circle full of people who commonly carry Software Malpractice Insurance?
FYI, the men with guns come for software engineers as well if the rich want it. Look up Sergey Aleynikov
AMA is the biggest gatekeeper in getting there.
Look you’re obviously against the AMA, and there’s arguments against their guild and its practices that I’m amenable to, but trying to pin the financial problems with our healthcare system on them is ludicrous given how many other large problems are in the system. Insurance middlemen are undoubtedly a bigger cost
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Swatting#Injuries_or_deaths_du...
US healthcare is so expensive because basically every single part of it costs more than it "should", by quite a bit. Including, yes, doctors.
If the doctors are causing like 1% of the issue, it’s not likely to be worth the time and energy to rectify vs if you can point to it being like 50% of the issue.
I’m pulling those numbers out of my ass so don’t feel like I’m trying to hold you to the literal values but I’d need to see _some_ data to even consider supporting changes to the AMA and laws surrounding them
Thinking you’ve found the one main reason makes it easy for opponents of reform to dismiss your solution, because you haven’t found it, because there’s not a main reason. It also means “cut private insurance out of the process” doesn’t fix it
Consider: public insurance schemes in the US spend far more for some given amount of care than peer states do, even as provides complain these programs don’t pay enough—that latter part is because all their vendors, suppliers, and personnel demand more money than their counterparts in the rest of the OECD states. Every single part of the system costs too much.
Switzerland pays more than us for doctors, barely, but also has unusually high healthcare costs for Europe (though not as bad as ours) and is richer than the US. Luxembourg is close but is an outlier for basically everything, they crush us in median income and such as well. Bermuda, a little lower, but it’s an island nation (everything’s more expensive) and, like Lux, richer than the US, another outlier. Nearest comparable looks like Australia, paying doctors an average (this avoids missing the effects of crazy-expensive top-end specialists, as a median might) about 76% what we do. The rest of the OECD’s lower than that.
You want one thing that is contributing, but such a trivial amount that it’s hardly worth addressing until everything else is fixed: it’s doctors’ liability insurance. They really want to reduce that cost, for obvious reasons, and Republicans want to fix it because… they hate poor people who’ve been harmed being compensated “too much” I guess… and it does contribute to higher costs, but very little compared to practically everything else. That one gets way more attention than it merits.
The unifying factor of other countries’ healthcare schemes that keeps them cheaper than the US doesn’t seem to be that they’ve minimized the role of private insurance (some haven’t!) but that they have explicit (like government-set price lists) or or implicit (via e.g. monopsony) price controls. It seems like you can use any of several approaches, some of which keep private health insurance in a prominent role (Switzerland! Though they at least have the good sense to force them to be nonprofits, IIRC) so long as you have, one way or another, price controls.
The only near-exception to this I’m aware of is Singapore, but… it’s Singapore. Plus they do have some explicit price controls, and I think it’s fair to say healthcare providers there might consider there to be a persistent, credible implied threat of more price controls or even harsher measures from the government, should prices rise too much, because… it’s Singapore.
[edit] FWIW I do think fixing the insurance situation is an excellent place to start, even the best starting point, and that the insurers in the US are probably beyond salvaging through integrating them into a better system, and should just be eliminated or their role drastically reduced; I think this would make less progress toward fixing prices than some suppose it would, though would still do a lot for that, but it’d, crucially, fix most of the hidden costs of our system, like patient-hours lost to waiting on hold to try to get insurance to pay what they’re supposed to, HR folks messing with insurance-related issues, et c, which are huge and don’t make it into straight cost comparisons with other countries because those aren’t “healthcare costs” (putting a dollar value on that would make us look even worse than we already do)
Insurance companies are a miniscule problem compared to provider costs.
NPs are starting to get around this by getting independent or mostly independent practices in many states. The Doctors can still kick PAs in the teeth because they are usually under the medical board, but they can't do nearly as much to get their greedy claws on NPs because they are governed by a separate nursing board that nurses have more control of.
It's not just this. It's also that the career is starting to suck.
Over half the doctors I know who I met while they were in medical school/residency are now out of the practice. They counted down the days until they had their student debt paid off and bounced to non-patient care roles outside the medical system.
The entire profession has been captured by the administrative and managerial class. Doctors have had most of their agency stripped from them, and it's an exhausting career choice for someone who generally has a ton of options at their disposal.
I expect the trend to get even worse as more and more pressure gets applied to the medical system both due to demographics and the endless march of making everything corporate.
Whoops!
It's interesting to see that but then also see boasts of "record freshman class sizes" at major public universities every single year (eg my Alma Mater, Wisconsin).
Is this a consolidation that is happening?
[0]: https://educationdata.org/college-enrollment-statistics
It is unclear to me why anyone in the comments here is under another impression. These were newsworthy events.
They weren't elected?
Literally my dude why are you making your voting choices known to poll workers who have no fucking choice but to stand there and listen?
I have spent years overseeing polling locations as an election inspector in the city of San Francisco. In all my years of doing this, I only saw one type of voter who made absolutely certain everyone around them knew exactly who they were voting for, whether or not they wanted to hear it, laws against electioneering be damned.
It’s the same type of person who drives a truck around plastered top to bottom with a guy’s name across it, flying forty foot flags behind them. The same type of voter for whom their candidate has become their entire insufferable personality. Who wears the hats, the shirts, has tattoos, and on and on and on.
One guy in particular went so far as to ask for help from a polling worker so they’d mark his ballot in favor of his specific presidential candidate. He had no problem whatsoever filling out the rest of his ballot. But it was real goddamn important for him to go out of his way to be a complete asshole to an innocent fucking volunteer who was sacrificing their entire goddamn day to make sure he could vote.
For whatever reason, this type of person is never a Harris, Biden, or Obama voter.
But I have every confidence you are that type of person.
> California Proposition 50 (2025) to gerrymander California was not put forward by Trump.
Prop 50 is very clearly and transparently a retaliation for Texas redrawing their election map. Nobody on the left is happy about this, but we are absolutely done fighting fascist power grabs with gentle requests to fight fair.
Take a good fucking look on the inside some time, my friend.
I doubt she knew my voting choices. I think both of you assumed. (I did not vote for Trump.)
> stand there and listen
Listen to what? lolwut It was quite mundane. She was obviously experienced, it was very pro forma.
> Obama voter
End of an era.
> I have spent years overseeing polling locations
> I have every confidence
And 2016 and 2024 come into clearer focus.
> clearly and transparently a retaliation
And 2026 and 2028 come into clearer focus.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_involvement_in...
"Oh, Sawatzki... You don't understand. In 1933, people were not fooled by propaganda. They elected a leader, who openly disclosed his plans in great clarity. The Germans elected me."
- https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ALTkMpPLuU
Anyone who responds "But isn't it a good thing that there are more opportunities for American students?" is missing the forest for the trees. Trump is not trying to open up more opportunities for education; he's trying to destroy education.
> I couldn’t find any stories on NPR in 2025 (solely this year, not earlier) that focus explicitly on positive trends in academia or higher education.
Imagine my surprise. In years to come, we should recognize they will have such stories, they will implicitly include the 2025 time frame, and those destroyed by the Kool-Aid will be none the wiser to anything positive. Compare National Propaganda Radio to Colorado Public Radio or The Colorado Sun and it becomes obvious: NPR and its ilk are the problem destroying our future youth, not the lack of international students.
- general anti-immigrant attitudes, policies, and policing (ICE)
- deportations of students exercising free speech rights (to criticize Israel)
- forcing colleges to change policies (again, to protect Israel from criticism by students and student groups)
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