China Dram Maker Cxmt Targets $4.2b Ipo as It Takes on Samsung, Sk Hynix, Micron
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As China's leading DRAM maker, CXMT, sets its sights on a $4.2 billion IPO, the tech community is abuzz with debate over the company's competitiveness, particularly regarding its access to cutting-edge lithography machines from ASML. Some commenters argue that CXMT and other DRAM manufacturers aren't yet reliant on ASML's EUV technology, while others point out that they're already using it, albeit at a slower adoption rate. The discussion highlights the complexities of the DRAM market and the challenges China faces in breaking into the industry dominated by Samsung, SK Hynix, and Micron. With DRAM prices skyrocketing, CXMT's IPO could be a timely move to shake up the market and give incumbents a run for their money.
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The other major DRAM makers use ASML machines, and I’m curious how competitive CXMT will manage to be without them.
Outside of that, I hope China can manage to obtain a foothold in silicon, the world, especially NVIDIA, Micron, Hynix, etc. definitely needs a wake up call. The AI world was spooked when China released an MIT licensed LLM model that outperformed others in many metrics at the time, let us hope that others can follow on this success.
Micron uses ASML’s EUV machines in New York.
https://www.syracuse.com/business/2023/09/mind-boggling-mach...
Will use. The fab isn't built yet.
https://investors.micron.com/static-files/530bd7ed-a8c8-4687...
And to the OP's comment: CXMT won't be making stuff for an Nvidia H100 any time soon haha, but there's a lot of stuff out there that's not that.
They are, of course, a bit slower in EUV adoption. But its already there:
https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/micron-sampl...
https://www.techinsights.com/blog/samsung-d1z-lpddr5-dram-eu...
Japanese companies are also nearshoring to vietnam.
Translation: Could Korean government win a power struggle against Chinese government
this wouldn't be such a problem if prices weren't so insane. Samsung would still have volume/know how/efficienciez.
I simply cannot understand how that will ever be profitable. To me, it just looks like a huge waste of resources.
[1]: https://redmondmag.com/blogs/generationai/2025/12/microsoft-...
But for RAM, Sam Altman didn't put in a purchase order for idk 10 trillion DIMMs or something. He said he would buy a bunch of wafers. A tweet had put it well: he said he'd buy wafers that don't yet exist for computers that don't exist for data centers that don't exist for AI models that don't exist for demand that doesn't exist.
So the demand is kinda made up the same way there were TP shortages at the height of covid. There's plenty enough to go around, but one person rocks the boat and everyone goes nuts.
But it will end and who knows how many lives will be ruined in the fall.
These companies going all in on purely AI partnership sales are foolish because the aforementioned user ratfucking is step two of Doctorow's original description of enshittification:
1. Attract users and partners with market disrupting quality of service
2. Screw over users in favor of partners, knowing that users are less likely to be critical and more likely to be locked in
3. Screw over partners once you've achieved enough market dominance that they are also locked in
4. Use rent seeking behavior (government bribes, etc.) now that you've exhausted your users and partners for growth
Jumping to regulating the global RAM market this early sounds like the worst of all solutions. You want people to get cross-government approval every time they want to buy or sell RAM? American companies will call up Korea to get their RAM rations.
Rationing chips makes sense to me. You don't have to set the ration at a low enough level that it would ever impact legitimate businesses. You could just set a ration level that prevents a company that is losing hundreds of billions of dollars from spending imaginary money buying 40% of the annual raw material supply despite lacking the capability to refine the raw materials into a working product, for the sole purpose of denying it to their competition. You strawmanned the opposition as requiring cross-government approval "every time anyone wants to buy RAM", but maybe we could just start with requiring cross-government approval to buy 40% of the global supply.
CXMT is already under a full set of US long arm sanctions so probably only very little of their products will ever reach western markets.
However some Chinese demand will definitely be met by CXMTs product displacing western suppliers - so maybe there is a tiny bit of relief for western consumers there.
I recall years of hints that the affordable housing crunch would eventually be helped by developers - even tho they're only building tons of not-affordable housing.
We're five years in. No meaningful change is visible from the perspective of folks who need affordable housing.
From that lesson, I expect what CXMT does there to have no meaningful effect here. In five years and probably ever.
If I may ask, what cities? For example, Austin has seen a 6.6% asking price decrease for 0- to 2-bedroom units [1]. The big problem is there is an absolutely massive hole, and very few places are building "enough" to make a dent.
[1] https://www.realtor.com/advice/hyperlocal/austin-rents-are-g...
With RAM you can always just AliExpress it. I live in a small country yet every day literally MILLIONS of packages come in from Asia.
If CXMT can fill more of China's domestic demand, that's still good news for us all.
The entire price crisis stems from anticipation of that prospect
Sure those particular ones are still using TSMC but at least people are doing something to prevent everything from being such oligopolies: which is also why I own an Intel Arc A580 and B580.
Any step towards market competition is nice to hear about.
Power efficiency. Strix Halo also offers unified CPU/GPU memory with 256 GB/s memory bandwidth, which brings it closer to Apple Silicon performance for local LLMs, https://chipsandcheese.com/p/strix-halos-memory-subsystem-ta...
Another opportunity is low-latency storage with millions of IOPS. Nvidia is rebooting Intel's cancelled (see eBay) Optane for "AI Storage". Future Mini PCs and LLM accelerators for Narrow/Edge AI industrial use could benefit from high-IOPS storage, https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/nvidia-and-kioxia...
Here's a recent AMD processor one from Lenovo https://www.lenovo.com/us/en/p/desktops/thinkcentre/m-series...
Here'a a Dell with Intel. I can't decipher Intel's model numbers, but it's DDR5 so it can't be that old. https://www.dell.com/en-us/shop/cty/pdp/spd/dell-pro-qcm1250...
Mini-PCs have a range of experimental form factors, including mini-desktop, NAS, router, tablet, SBCs, industrial with GPIO, thanks to competition between Chinese and Korean (e.g. ODROID) OEMs.
HP has a $220 Windows laptop and $400 Chromebook based on Intel N150.
Edit: I see you made an edit without noting that you did so.
Only this sentence was in the pre-edit comment: "Or maybe CXMT is not dumb? If the worldwide price of some commodity is $100 and you can produce an item that is nearly as good as everyone else’s, would you sell it for $98 or for $50?"
For your added comments: There is no supply issue, there are hundreds of sellers of Hynix, Crucial, Samsung ddr5 on Taobao. For your second comment about them driving down prices later on by increasing supply, well, I first of all noted that perhaps capacity is not great in my comment, and you are also contradicting your first point where you said CXMT would be stupid to compete on price.
In reality, the history of every Chinese market entrant, even those leading technologically, shows that they always cut margins to compete by driving down costs. I have a decade worth of experience related to this.
I believe CXMT simply has not gotten to the stage where they really try to win market share and crank up supply - perhaps due to lack of capital, or as I said, due to capacity limitations (which may be a result of capital).
Investors have the stomach for this tactic, surely a company with the state's backing can remain solvent even longer than those funded by private investors.
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46415338#46419776
If they actually want to try to destroy their competitors by undercutting them, they need to be able supply enough DRAM to actually drive down the price. At the rate that the big buyers are buying DRAM, that will take several more years at least.
I’m curious whether their presumed inability to buy ASML machines might actually help them. If they can meet the target DDR5 and HBM specs without EUV while maintaining decent yield and acceptable power consumption of the finished product, they may well be able to out-scale their competitors. I imagine it’s a lot easier to procure the equipment for additional DUV lines than EUV lines, especially with other Chinese vendors doing their best to supply semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
Undercutting the competitors is done when a business is working close to cost and a slight anomaly (eg. competitor that doesn't have to make profit, is subsidized or is cheaper for some artificial reason) makes them go out of business.
A stick of ram, made for $10, that used to cost $20 is now $100 due to the AI bubble (numbers pulled out of my ass)... you'd have to bring the prices down to $15 or even less to make those companies fold, but you can earn much more if you sell your ram at $80.
They failed to achieve quality and decent yield. And that is at least 10 years from DDR3 to DDR5. On the other hand YMTC from NAND space are moving to DRAM.
But I guess Americans will not be buying Chinese RAMs/SSDs for critical applications (such as AI), and not a lot of user outside China will use Chinese AI due to restrictions such as censorship etc being enforced on it, limiting the growth and scale of the tech. So, there is still hope that some of the manufacturers will eventually pivot towards tried and true consumer products.
There's been no news on Samsung exiting any DRAM market as far as I can tell?
> Samsung is officially stepping in to shut down the panic. The company has firmly denied reports that it plans to kill off its consumer SATA SSD production. In a direct statement, a spokesperson made it clear: the rumors are false, and Samsung isn’t going anywhere.
better the devil you know than the devil you don't.
Unfortunately as far as I can see it is not possible from where I am (Denmark).
Some Hong Kong shares and linked Shanghai shares are available in interactive brokers but not these ipoes.
Samsung Electronics – https://www.samsung.com
SK hynix – https://www.skhynix.com
Micron Technology – https://www.micron.com
ChangXin Memory Technologies (CXMT) – https://www.cxmt.com
Nanya Technology – https://www.nanya.com
Winbond Electronics – https://www.winbond.com
Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Corp. (PSMC) – https://www.psmc.com.tw
Fujian Jinhua Integrated Circuit (JHICC) – http://www.jhicc.com
GigaDevice – https://www.gigadevice.com
Etron Technology – https://www.etron.com
Integrated Silicon Solution Inc. (ISSI) – https://www.issi.com
Elite Semiconductor Memory Technology (ESMT) – https://www.esmt.com.tw
Zentel Electronics – https://www.zentel.com.tw
Alliance Memory – https://www.alliancememory.com
AP Memory Technology – https://www.apmemory.com
AMIC Technology – https://www.amictechnology.com
Hua Hong Semiconductor – https://www.huahong.com
(Note that I have not researched each of these companies individually... There may be errors in the above list (some may be DRAM resellers, some may be defunct, etc., etc.))
Coke and Pepsi dominate the worldwide drink market, but due to the immense size of the market, there are always up-and-coming competitors.
Go to your local superstore, supermarket, or your local convenience store.
You'll find Coke and Pepsi, lots of it, but you'll also find no-name drinks and sodas from drink companies that are not as well established yet or well known.
That those exist is a good thing, at least for consumers, at least for those that consume, because the root of all consumer prosperity brought on by capitalism (global trade = capitalism, regardless of the names of countries involved) comes from the relentless competition brought on by two or more companies, ideally as many as possible...
We would not have the super high performing desktop computers we have today if it were not for the historic early competition between AMD and Intel (later entered by other CPU manufacturers), and we would not have choice if it were not for competition.
Getting back to DRAM manufacturers, The first three do dominate 95+% of the market as of 2026.
But there might be some interesting up-and-coming smaller companies to watch...
Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ years ago...
What new DRAM manufacturer might be the next up-and-coming DRAM manufacturer in the space?
Well, we don't as-of-yet know... but the space is an interesting one to watch, to be sure!
But you are correct!
The first three do currently dominate 95+% of the market as of 2026...
> Let's remember that OpenAI came from basically nowhere -- to give Google a run for its money -- as did Google with Microsoft's behemoth 20+ years ago...
Yeah, but the capital behind it certainly did not:
> OpenAI was initially founded as a nonprofit organization by Altman, Greg Brockman, Elon Musk, Jessica Livingston, Peter Thiel, Microsoft, Amazon Web Services, Infosys, and YC Research. When OpenAI launched in 2015, it had raised pledges for $1 billion. [1]
Altman was well connected, with rich friends. People like Thiel and Musk. Under the guise of a non-profit they eventually pulled a rug to make OpenAI for-profit.
The barrier of entry for hardware design is also just plain different than software. There was a good talk on that recently on 39c3.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sam_Altman
We also know that the world is full of capital -- as you suggest.
That capital is continually looking for investment opportunities, and DRAM is a huge, huge market...
When capital invests in markets, any barriers to entry are moved, if not outright displaced (i.e., OpenAI, $1 billion, etc.).
Point is, we don't know what the future will hold...
I think it's a good bet that cheaper DRAM, DDR5 and otherwise, will be coming down the pike soon, once production catches up, once supply outpaces demand...
Seems to be the case with CPUs although I know that's a bit different since they're contracting with existing fabs
it has become this due to the cyclical mania and bad margins on the troughs killing companies. hopefully this current hunger for memory make it less painful down the line.
As they say in business: "Your margin is my opportunity"