Can “second Life” Ev Batteries Work as Grid-Scale Energy Storage?
Posted2 months agoActive2 months ago
volts.wtfTechstoryHigh profile
calmmixed
Debate
60/100
Energy StorageElectric VehiclesSustainability
Key topics
Energy Storage
Electric Vehicles
Sustainability
The article discusses the feasibility of repurposing EV batteries for grid-scale energy storage, with comments debating the practicality, economics, and potential alternatives.
Snapshot generated from the HN discussion
Discussion Activity
Very active discussionFirst comment
47m
Peak period
63
0-6h
Avg / period
20
Comment distribution160 data points
Loading chart...
Based on 160 loaded comments
Key moments
- 01Story posted
Oct 23, 2025 at 2:15 PM EDT
2 months ago
Step 01 - 02First comment
Oct 23, 2025 at 3:02 PM EDT
47m after posting
Step 02 - 03Peak activity
63 comments in 0-6h
Hottest window of the conversation
Step 03 - 04Latest activity
Oct 26, 2025 at 6:15 AM EDT
2 months ago
Step 04
Generating AI Summary...
Analyzing up to 500 comments to identify key contributors and discussion patterns
ID: 45685007Type: storyLast synced: 11/20/2025, 8:28:07 PM
Want the full context?
Jump to the original sources
Read the primary article or dive into the live Hacker News thread when you're ready.
If EV batteries last 20+ years in EV's, it'll be > 2040 before there are significant numbers of EV batteries available to recycle or reuse.
https://www.geotab.com/blog/ev-battery-health/
Low cost modules allow one to do away with things like optimally tilted modules and single axis tracking. The modules can also be tightly packed, reducing mounting and wiring costs.
https://www.orcasciences.com/articles/standard-thermal-copy
https://austinvernon.substack.com/p/building-ultra-cheap-ene...
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45012942
A typical house in Midwest needs around 22,000kWh (7.913×10^10 J) over the winter (75 million BTU - https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=57321 ).
If we assume the delta of 550 degrees (600 down to 50), you'll need: 7.913×10^10 J / (550K * 1000Jkg^-1K^-1) = 143,872,727 kg of material in your pile. This is a ridiculously stupid number. And I don't see any obvious mistakes?
A more worthy criticism is that the pile for just a single house is too small and would cool off too quickly.
I'll work out some rough figures.
Let's say your house is pretty big and badly insulated, so we want an average of 5000 watts of heating around the clock with a time constant on the order of 10 hours, and we don't want our heating element to go over 700°. (Honest-to-God degrees, not those pathetic little Fahrenheit ones.) That way we don't have to deal with the ridiculous engineering issues Standard Thermal is battling. There's a thermal gradient through the sand down to room temperature (20°) at the surface. Suppose the sand is in the form of a flat slab with the heating element just heating the center of it, which is kind of a worst case for amount of sand needed but is clearly feasible. Then, when the element is running at a 100% duty cycle, the average sand temperature is 360°. Let's say we need to store about 40 hours of our 5000W. Quartz (cheap construction sand) is 0.73J/g/K, so our 720MJ at ΔT averaging 340K is 2900kg, a bit over a cubic meter of sand. This costs about US$100 depending mostly on delivery costs.
The time constant is mostly determined by the thickness of the sand (relative to its thermal diffusivity), although you can vary it with the fan. The heating element needs to be closely enough spaced that it can heat up the sand in the few hours that it's powered. In practice I am guessing that this will be about 100mm, so 1.5 cubic meters of sand can be in a box that's 200mm × 2.7m × 2.7m. You can probably build the box mostly out of 15m² of ceramic tiles, deducting their thermal mass from the sand required. In theory thin drywall should be fine instead of ceramic if your fan never breaks, but a fan failure could let the surface get hot enough to damage drywall. Or portland cement, although lime or calcium aluminate cement should be fine. You can use the cement to support the ceramic tiles on an angle iron frame and grout between them if necessary.
7.5m² of central plane with wires 100mm apart requires roughly 27 2.7m wires, 75m, probably dozens of broken hair dryers if you want to recycle nichrome, though I suspect that at 700° you could just use baling wire, especially if you mix in a little charcoal with the sand to maintain a reducing atmosphere in the sand pore spaces. (But then if it gets wet you could get carbon monoxide until you dry it out.) We're going to be dumping the whole 720MJ thermal charge in in under 9 hours, say 5 hours when the sunshine is at its peak, so we're talking about maybe 40kW peak power here. This is 533 watts per meter of wire, which is an extremely reasonable number for a wire heating element, even a fairly fine wire in air without forced-air cooling.
If we believe https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-025-93054-w/tables/1 the thermal conductivity of dry sand ranges from 0.18 W/m/K to 0.34 W/m/K. So if we have a linear thermal gradient from our peak design temperature of 700° to 20° over 100mm, which is 6800K/m, we should get a heat flux of 1200–2300W/m² over our 15m² of ceramic tiles, so at least 18kW, which is more than we need, but only about 3×, so 200mm thickness is in the ballpark even without air blowing through the sand itself. (As the core temperature falls, the heat gradient also falls, and so does the heat flux. 720MJ/18kW I think gives us our time constant, and that works out to 11 hours, but it isn't exactly an exponential decay.) Maybe 350mm would be better, with corresponding increases in heating-element spacing and decreases in wire length and box surface area and footprint.
To limit heat loss when the fan is off, instead of a single humongous wall, you can split the beast into 3–6 parallel walls with a little airspace between them, so they're radiating their heat at each other instead of you, and cement some aluminum foil on the outside surfaces to reduce infrared emissivity. The amount of air the fan blows between the walls can then regulate the heat output over at least an order of magnitude. (In the summer you'll probably want to leave the heating element off.)
The sand, baling wire, aluminum foil, lime cement, angle irons, charcoal, thermocouples, power MOSFETs, microcontroller, fans, and ceramic tiles all together might work out to US$500. But the 40kW of solar panels required are about US$4000 wholesale, before you screw them to your siding or whatever. At US prices they'd apparently be US$10k.
720MJ is 200kWh in cursed units, so this is about US$2.50/kWh. Batteries are about US$80/kWh on the Shanghai Metals Market.
What do you think?
Having said that: a good design for sand batteries would use insulated silos, pushing/dropping sand into a fluidized bed heat exchanger where some heat transfer gas is intimately mixed with it. This is the NREL concept that Babcock and Wilcox was (still is?) exploring for grid storage, with a round trip efficiency back to electricity of 54% (estimated) using a gas turbine. Having a separate heat exchanger means the silos don't have to be plumbed for the heat exchange fluid or have to contain its pressure.
Getting the sand back to the top (where it will be heated and dropping into silos) is a problem that could be solved with Olds Elevators, which were only recently invented (amazingly).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-fu03F-Iah8
I agree that local dirt is much cheaper than trucked-in construction sand, but I think my design sketch above shows that a "sand battery" whose only moving parts are fans will be about 30× cheaper than a real battery at household scale, even though the sand is still most of the estimated cost. A "sand battery" designed to power a steam turbine is a much more difficult problem to solve, but in this case the stated problem is just that it's 24°F (-3°) outside, so I think much cheaper solutions are fine, with no pressure vessels, stainless steel, insulated silos, sand conveyors, or heat transfer fluids other than garden-variety air.
Do you have a good handle on the pressure (and therefore power) requirements for getting air to flow upward through sand? I feel like you ought to be able to get a pretty decent amount of thermal power out of half a tonne of sand with a really minimal amount of pumping, but that's only a gut feeling. Definitely as you go to graded-granulometry gravel the required head drops off to almost nothing.
Thanks for the link to the Olds device! That's utterly astounding. Archimedes could have used it for raising sand, although making a sturdy enough tube out of wood might have been a bit of a chore.
Better idea: put 9 2.7-meter wires in parallel on each of the three circuits, so each wire can have 9×0.173Ω = 1.56 Ω = 0.58Ω/m. That's 32-gauge copper magnet wire, 0.2mm diameter, 0.54Ω/m; or its thicker equivalent in other metals. Iron's resistivity is 5.7 times copper's, so you need a 5.7 times thicker wire: 0.5mm, 24-gauge. Nichrome is 11 times the resistivity of iron, so you'd need 1.6-mm-diameter nichrome.
I don't know, I think the copper would probably melt faster than the sand could conduct the heat away from it, and the nichrome would definitely be fine, but too expensive. But you can extrapolate from this how to solve the problem: by shortening the distance along the heating wires to low-resistance busbars (possibly made of rebar or leftover angle iron) and thus increasing the number of parallel paths, you allow the use of higher-resistance-per-unit-length and thus cheaper and more workable heating elements; the limit of this lightweighting is that the wires' surface area in contact with the sand must cool them enough to prevent melting. By this method you can use a small amount of a conductor of any resistivity at all, limited mainly by the temperature.
All these metals are fine at 700°, or for that matter 1000°. Copper will have less of a tendency to oxidize than iron, which would require a reducing atmosphere, and nichrome will oxidize but remain protected by its oxidation. (A reducing atmosphere will destroy nichrome.) But, at a lower temperature still, like 600°, you could use 10μm thick household aluminum foil, which is much easier to work with than any kind of 20μm wire, but has a similar ratio of surface area to volume. It has 54% more resistivity than copper, so a 10μm × 1mm strip is 2.7 ohms per meter. Our previous objective of 0.58Ω/m is a 4.6mm-wide-strip, which transfers heat to the sand along its 9.2mm perimeter, like a 10-gauge wire. 75m × 4.6mm is the size of about 5 or 6 pages of A4 paper cut into strips.
Cheaper than nichrome and copper. I feel like mild steel would not last long in practice.
Copper plated MIG welding wire might be good enough?
Probably want to think about thermal expansion also, especially configured as "walls", and with skins considerably colder than cores.
of course things arenot actually linear on temperature but as a rough estimate it gets the point across.
But the heat pump doesn't save you 10kW over resistive heating when it's running full-tilt. It saves you 10-3 = 7kW. So it costs 39¢ per watt of saved energy, which is 6 times as much as the solar panels.
In some simplified theoretical sense, if you decide you need another 10kW of heating for your house, you could spend US$2700 on this heat pump, and also buy 3000 Wp of solar panels to power it, costing US$194, for a total cost of US$2894. Or you could buy 10000 Wp of solar panels, costing US$645, and a resistive wire, costing US$10, for a total cost of US$655. US$655 is almost five times cheaper than US$2894. (4.4 times cheaper.)
There are a lot of factors that this simplified cost estimate overlooks; for example:
• Maybe you need to run the heater 16 hours a day but you only get sunlight 7 hours a day, either because it's winter in Norway, or because there are tall pine trees that shade your property most of the day, and you can't put the panels up on the trees. So maybe in some sense one watt of peak heater output is worth 2.3 watts of peak solar panel output. Or maybe it's the other way around, where your house only needs active heating during a few hours at night, so one watt of peak heater output is only worth 0.43 watts of peak solar panel output.
• The prices are in different countries. Solar panels are more expensive in the US, even wholesale.
• US$2700 is the retail price of the heat pump, including installation and warranty, and 6.5¢/Wp is the wholesale price of low-cost solar panels with no warranty ("Minderleistungs-Solarmodule, B-Ware, Insolvenzware, Gebrauchtmodule, PV-Module mit eingeschränkter oder ohne Garantie, die in der Regel auch keine Bankability besitzen.") Even in Europe the retail price of solar panels is three or four times this.
• Driving a resistive heating element from solar panels is considerably easier than driving a heat pump from solar panels; adapting a heating element to run on lower voltage is just a matter of connecting more wires to the middle of it, while adapting a heat pump to run on lower voltage may involve redesigning the whole power supply board or even rewinding the motor. Which is in a hermetically sealed refrigerant circuit, by the way, which you'd have to reseal. In practice, you'd just buy an inverter, but a 3000-watt inverter is expensive.
• As you said, for sensible-heat thermal storage, the heat pump craps out at about 50° or 60°, while any garden-variety resistive heating element (plus a lot of crappy improvised ones) will be just fine at 600° or 700°. That means you need ten times as much thermal mass for the same amount of storage. Sand is dirt cheap, but once you get into the tens of tonnes, even dirt isn't really cheap.
Despite such complications, I still think that pair of numbers is a useful summary of the situation: the heat pump costs 39¢ per watt saved, while the solar panel costs 6.5¢ per watt produced.
Even if they don't have surplus electricity all the time.
Unless you're just bolting them to the floor or to an uninsulated wall, mounting will (sadly) run you a sizable fraction of that cost in the best case.
But yeah, at the end of the day, just bent bars of aluminum with ground screws and bolts to hold the corners of the panels, versus the technological marvels of the solar panels they hold.
(Asking because I genuinely don't know, not because I have a specific answer in mind.)
Those old panels have to go somewhere and still have at least 2/3 of their life left. Probably more because we're finding out that well-made panels do not degrade as quickly as previously thought.
The used panel market (in the US anyway) might dry up soon if the tariffs stay in place, as that will make a lot of customers reluctant to upgrade due to greatly increased costs. But I guess we'll see. I've been wrong before.
David Roberts
When did automotive batteries become the majority of your input by volume?
Colin Campbell
That is a good question.
David Roberts
Was it recent or was that early on?
Colin Campbell
I would say the transition to EV batteries dominating what we received, it’s been in the last year or 18 months.
David Roberts
So the front edge of a very large wave of batteries has begun to arrive?
Colin Campbell
Yeah, the wave is out there, it’s coming. The waters have finally started to arrive at the beach here.
Sure, so while not supplying power to a city, they are proving this is viable. Just because it's not "turn off the coal plants now" moment doesn't mean this isn't a very good direction. Everyone has to start and grow. I don't understand the whole shit on something because it's not an immediate solve. If these guys waited until 2040 to start the business, well, that'd just be dumb. It essentially sounds like capacity will just continue to increase year over year, maybe around 2040 there will be a huge spike. Doesn't seem like anything is wrong here.
When EVs with good battery pack engineering started hitting the streets, they outperformed those early projections by a lot. And by now, it's getting clear that battery pack isn't as much of a concern - with some of the better designs, like in early Teslas, losing about 5-15% of their capacity over a decade of use.
LiPo batteries were quiet expensive when it was initially released. NiMH was really the only option in town.
And with a lower energy density battery that's also heavier, adding a cooling system would have also added a bunch of weight to the already heavy car with a barely usable range of 100 miles.
Gen 2, however, had no excuses. They had every opportunity to add active cooling and they still decided to go with just air cooling.
I use it in my driveway to make it look to thieves like someone is home (round me, houses with no car get broken into).
It seems like procuring the battery is not as expensive as the Tesla battery (I see someone who did it themselves for $6k on Youtube with the battery from a wrecked leaf). In comparison, the cost I see for my Model 3 is about ~$18k CAD.
Getting a car up and running for $8k might be worth it if it is otherwise dependable, but I've only heard unfortunate stories about the first gen Leaf.
Edit: Checking Wikipedia to verify my information, I found out that Nissan actually sold a lithium-battery EV in 1997 to comply with the same 90s CARB zero-emissions vehicle mandate that gave us the GM EV-1: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nissan_R%27nessa#Nissan_Altra
Even just looking at online media reports[2][3] clearly sourced from some exact same press event, it is obvious that US English equivalents are much lighter in content than Japanese versions. They're putting the information out, no one's reading it. It's just been the types of information that didn't drive clicks. Language barrier would have effects on it too, that Toyota is a Japanese company and US is an export market, but it's fundamentally the same phenomenon as citizen facing government reports that never gets read and often imagined as being "hidden and withheld from public eyes", just a communication issue.
1: https://www.toyota.com/priuspluginhybrid/features/mpg_other_...
2: https://www.motortrend.com/news/toyota-aqua-prius-c-hybrid-b...
3: https://car.watch.impress.co.jp/docs/news/1339263.html
It's under Weights/Capacities but you have to expand the section yourself, no way to link directly to it.
/out
I was looking up this year's Corolla a while ago and likewise there was minimal info that I could see about the battery capacity, which I think I figured out was about 3kWh.
The Lizard pack in the later Nissan Leafs has held up surprisingly well. I have a 2015 that still gets 75 miles of range. I'm sure they thought it wasn't necessary and they probably had the actuarial numbers to justify it.
https://coolienergy.com/lfp-vs-nmc-batteries-the-science-beh...
Depth of discharge and charge rate affect LFP specifically in such a way that if you keep them a good margin above cutoff voltage, relatively cool (60C and under, and do 1C and lower charging you can get 10,000 cycles per their data sheets. The same sheets will also list lower cycle counts for harder use that lines up with the standards used for earlier cells. Basically I think we’ll find a lot of gently to moderately used hardware will last a long time.
Whatever a believable use case looks like will probably end up on those data sheets and it wouldn’t surprise me if we see 15,000 and 20,000 cycles advertised for cells intended in low charge and discharge use cases (probably not cars but maybe home energy storage).
My Taycan has an ongoing battery issue relating to LG Pouch cells but its construction rather than composition that is the culprit. The same compositions from LG in prismatic and cylindrical models, the only models they sell now, so far haven’t been a mess for car makers.
I suspect it'll die due to rust. But yes, might take a while. Even in Denmark where we salt the roads in a winter.
Edit: part of that is that a Prius with 250,000 miles needing its second battery replacement is still a valuable car with a reasonable expectation of a lot more miles. OTOH a Tesla at 250,000 miles needing its first battery replacement...
Similarly Chrysler hybrid owners spend less money on battery replacements than Toyota hybrid owners. Not a compliment, it means they're scrapping their cars earlier.
This low maintenance cost thing is BS once something actually goes wrong. And it’s awfully frustrating / sus when it happens the moment the warranty ends
My 2017’s HV fuse went just days before the warranty ended. They tried to charge me $330 for that planned part.
These things aren’t cheap.
We had this article from Elektrek [1] about battery issues in South Korea. When I asked my local electric maintenance shop [2, sorry for the FB link], they said they have started seeing the same issue in Model 3s and Ys in Canada as well. (They also said that it is too early to tell how common it would become)
This may bode well for recycling since the issues is an unbalance, not the whole pack failing.
[1] https://electrek.co/2025/10/14/tesla-is-at-risk-of-lossing-s...
[2] https://www.facebook.com/groups/albertaEV/posts/248558844207...
"many of these vehicles are now out of warranty, as they sometimes exceed the maximum mileage"
They have good numbers for the number of affected vehicles, but the best they can do for out-of-warranty stats is "many" and "sometimes". Convenient.
~To be fair this applies to a lot of popular tech sites I used to respect. Dunking on Tesla is its own industry these days, it seems.
Are you suggesting Tesla is criticized without good reason?
(I also find it difficult to separate noise from signal about Tesla. However, I don't consider them innocent victims; besides the elephant in the room, they literally eliminated their PR department)
https://www.reddit.com/r/electricvehicles/comments/1e3onbp/c...
I think Tesla deserves credit for rethinking hat model into chassis-life battery packs and surpluses rather than recovered cells for grid storages.
Especially considering that, resales of Gen1 Leafs milked for EVs and renewables incentives is like destination fees atrocious. You can find fairly zero-milage ones with a functional 100-yard battery pack on sale for couple hundred dollars in some places. Even crashed wrecks of a Tesla cost magnitudes more.
I was stuck in traffic behind an 87 caddy yesterday. It was not a collector car. That chassis is still on the road, seemed to be taking kids to school.
How many km's on the clock, and how often do you fast charge if you dont mind me asking?
To me that SOH stat sounds really bad!
To me this is perfectly reasonable degradation after 7 years of ownership with the number of miles I have.
There is also just an element of luck that's involved. Batteries degrade at different rates and there's not really any accounting for it.
If I were to guess, the main factor harming the battery is my garage gets pretty hot in the summer (37 or 38C)
Do you leave it fully charged for long periods of time, or do you discharge it down to empty or nearly empty quite regularly?
I don't often fully discharge, that's bad for the lipos. I usually keep a 40-70 range SOC.
there are exceptions, though.
Tesla has an 8-year battery and drivetrain warranty but they don't necessarily fail after that date.
Anecdotal forum posts are not a great source of statistical data.
What is c in this context?
And already, solar plus storage is cheaper than new nuclear. And solar and storage are getting cheaper at a tremendous rate.
It's hard to imagine a scenario where fusion could ever catch up to solar and storage technology. It may be useful in places with poor solar resources, like fission is now, but that's a very very long time from now.
The AI arms race, which has become an actual arms race in the war in Ukraine, needs endless energy all times a day.
China is already winning the AI cold war because it adds more capacity to its grid a year than Germany has in a century.
If we keep going with agrarian methods of energy production don't be surprised that we suffer the same fate as the agrarian societies of the 19th century. Any country that doesn't have the capability to train and build drones on mass won't be a country for long.
China is winning the AI Cold war because it's adding solar, storage, and wind at orders of magnitude more than nuclear.
I'm not sure who's doing your supposed "envisioning" but there is no vision for cheap abundant energy from fusion. Solar and storage deliver it today, fusion only delivers it in sci fi books.
Nuclear is 20th century technology that does not fit with a highly automated future. With high levels of automation, construction is super expensive. You want to spend your expensive construction labor on building factories, not individual power generation sites.
Building factories for solar and storage lets them scale to a degree that nuclear could never scale. Nuclear has basically no way of catching up.
I blame these for the unquestioned belief that fusion is desirable. It's a trope because it enables stories to be told, and because readers became used to seeing, not because science fiction has a good track record on such things.
The fact that the volumetric power density of ARC is 40x worse than a PWR (and ITER, 400x worse!) should tell one that DT fusion at least is unlikely to be cheap.
With continued progress down the experience curve, PV will reach the point where resistive heat is cheaper than burning natural gas at the Henry Hub price (which doesn't include the cost of getting gas through pipelines and distribution to customers.) And remember cheap natural gas was what destroyed the last nuclear renaissance in the US.
Okay, sure, burning lignite and using the exhaust as air heating in the children's hospital. You got me.
Solar and wind capacity had shot through the roof in the last five years because they can't sell hardware to the west any more.
The other big item is hydro power, which China has a ton of untapped potential for. Unfortunately for the West every good river has already been damed so we can't follow them there.
"can't sell hardware??" hah! I've never heard that weird made-up justification, where did you pick it up from?
China installed 277GW of solar in 2024, capacity factor corrected that's 55.4 GW of solar power. That's equivalent to the entire amount of nuclear that China has ever built. One year versus all time. And then in the first half of 2025, China installed another 212GW of solar. In six months.
Nuclear is a footnote compared to the planned deployment of solar and wind and storage in China.
Anybody who's serious about energy is deploying massive amounts of solar, storage, and some wind. Some people that are slow to adapt are still building gas or coal, but these will be stranded assets far before their end of life. Nuclear fusion and fission are meme technologies, unable to compete with the scale and scope that batteries and solar deliver every day. This mismatch grows by the month.
The problem is not just the mean capacity factor, but the capacity factor in _winter_. It's terrible for China, less than 15%. And more importantly, you can have _weeks_ with essentially zero solar power when you need it most.
55.4 GW per 277 GW is an (annual) capacity factor of 20%, so the response here is "yes, and?"
> And more importantly, you can have _weeks_ with essentially zero solar power when you need it most.
Half the country is a mid-latitude desert. What makes you think the whole country has "weeks" with zero solar? And it does have to be the whole country in this case, because one thing a centrally planned economy can do well is joining up the infrastructure, which in this case means "actually make the power grid the USA and the EU keep wringing their hands over".
The "whole country" is irrelevant. You can't transmit arbitrary amounts of power across the large geographic areas, most of energy has to be generated in a reasonably close proximity.
> And it does have to be the whole country in this case, because one thing a centrally planned economy can do well is joining up the infrastructure
Transmission lines are expensive, regardless of your ideology.
Trying to explain that a grid build by electrical engineers, rather than financial engineers, has resilience build in to people whose whole idea about electricity generation is greenwashed bullshit from McKinsey and Co is at best a waste of time and at worst an excellent way to raise one's blood pressure.
They can't sell as much as they would like, specifically to the USA, due to tariffs/trade war, but there's a much bigger world out there than just the US, and the overall exports are up over the last five years: https://www.canarymedia.com/articles/solar/chart-chinas-sola...
There's a Chinese-made Balkonkraftwerk sitting a few meters away from me on my patio, it cost €350, of which €50 was delivery and another €50 was the mounting posts, the remaining €250 got me 800 W of both panel and inverter.
> Unfortunately for the West every good river has already been damed so we can't follow them there.
For generation, yes. For storage, no.
You don't need a river for hydro power storage. All you need are two reservoirs with a height difference between them. Typically one of the two reservoirs is preexisting and the second is constructed. ANU identified ~1 million potential sites.
https://re100.eng.anu.edu.au/global/
But I agree that it doesn't look like fusion is going to be cheap any time soon.
Maybe, but not necessarily. The necessary breakthrough might have been high-temperature superconducting magnets, in which case not only has it been imagined, but it has already occurred, and we're just waiting for the engineering atop that breakthrough to progress enough to demonstrate a working prototype (the magnets have been demonstrated but a complete reactor using them hasn't yet).
Or it might be that the attempts at building such a prototype don't pan out, and some other breakthrough is indeed needed. It'll probably be a couple of years until we know for sure, but at this point I don't think there's enough data to say one way or the other.
> And already, solar plus storage is cheaper than new nuclear.
It depends how much storage you mean. If you're only worried about sub-24h load-shifting (like, enough to handle a day/night cycle on a sunny day), this is certainly true. If you care about having enough to cover for extended bad weather, or worse yet, for seasonal load-shifting (banking power in the summer to cover the winter), the economics of solar plus storage remain abysmal: the additional batteries you need cost just as much as the ones you needed for daily coverage, but get cycled way less and so are much harder to pay for. If the plan is to use solar and storage for _all generation_, though, that's the number that matters. Comparing LCoE of solar plus daily storage with the LCoE of fixed-firm or on-demand generation is apples-and-oranges.
I think solar plus storage absolutely has the potential to get there, but that too will likely require fundamental breakthroughs (probably in the form of much cheaper storage: perhaps something like Form Energy's iron-air batteries).
With HTSC magnets, a tokamak much smaller than ITER could be built, but ITER is so horrifically bad that one can be much better than it and still be impractical.
> But even though radiation damage rates and heat transfer requirements are much more severe in a fusion reactor, the power density is only one-tenth as large. This is a strong indication that fusion would be substantially more expensive than fission because, to put it simply, greater effort would be required to produce less power.
https://orcutt.net/weblog/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/The-Tro...
We might ask why regulations are so putatively damaging to nuclear, when they aren't to civil aviation. One possibility is that aircraft are simply easier to retrofit when design flaws are found. If there's a problem with welding in a nuclear plant (for example) it's extremely difficult to repair. Witness the fiasco of Flamanville 3 in France, the EPR plant that went many times over budget.
What would this imply for fusion? Nothing good. A fusion reactor is very complex, and any design flaw in the hot part will be extremely difficult to fix, as no hands on access will be allowed after the thing has started operation, due to induced radioactivity. This includes design or manufacturing flaws that cause mere operations problems, like leaks in cooling channels, not just flaws that might present public safety risks (if any could exist.) The operator will view a smaller problem that renders their plant unusable nearly as bad as a larger problem that also threatens the public.
I was struck by a recent analysis of deterioration of the tritium breeding blanket that just went ahead and assumed there were no initial cracks in the welded structure more than a certain very small size. Guaranteeing quality of all the welds in a very large complex fusion reactor, an order of magnitude or more larger than a fission reactor of the same power output, sounds like a recipe for extreme cost.
For comparison, utility-scale solar with 16 hours of storage is 21 cents: https://www.utilitydive.com/news/higher-renewable-energy-cos...
Just raw solar without storage can be as low as 2-3 cents per kWh.
But there's no fundamental reason they _have_ to be one-off products. They just historically have been for at least partly regulatorily motivated reasons: because each reactor's approval process starts afresh (or rather, did until quite-recent NRC reforms), there's little advantage in reuse, and because many compliance costs are both high and fixed, there's an incentive to build fewer huge reactors rather than more small ones, which makes factory construction difficult to achieve and economies of scale hard to realize.
One doesn't need super high quality welding and concrete pours becuase of regulations as much as the basic desire to have a properly engineered solution that lasts long enough to avoid costly repairs.
Take for example this recent analysis on how to make the AP1000 competitive:
https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/11/DOE-Advanced-...
There are no regulatory changes proposed because nobody has thought of a way that regulations are the cost drivers. Yet there's still a path to competitive energy costs by focusing hard on construction costs.
Similarly, reactors under completely different regimes such as the EPR are still facing exactly the same construction cost overruns as in the rest of the developed world.
If regulations are a cost driver, let's hear how to change them in a way that drives down build cost, and by how much. Let's say we get rid of ALARA and jack up acceptable radiation levels to the earliest ones established. What would that do the cost? I have a feeling not much at all, but would like to see a serious proposal.
One approach would be to reduce the size of the containment building by greatly reducing the volume of steam it must hold. This would be done by attaching Filtered Containment Venting Systems (FCVS) that strip most of the radioactive elements from the vented steam in case of a large accident.
The containment building is a significant cost driver, costing about as much as the nuclear island inside of it.
If such a system had been attached to the reactors that melted down at Fukushima exposure could have been reduced by maybe two orders of magnitude. And if the worst case exposure is that low, perhaps much more frequent meltdowns could be tolerated, allowing relaxation of paperwork requirements elsewhere.
More seriously: what to do about the neutron flux destroying the first wall inside the reactor vessel?
I meant, needed thickness of the tritium breeding blanket.
And that's the problem with these Internet discussions: that's almost never the plan, but commenters trying to make solar look bad assume it is (to your credit, you made it explicit; many commenters treat it as an unspoken assumption).
In real life, solar and batteries is almost always combined with other forms of generation (and other forms of storage like pumped hydro), in large part due to being added to an already existing large-scale grid. The numbers that matter are for a combination of existing generation (thermal power plants, large-scale hydro, etc) with solar plus storage. Adding batteries for just a few hours of solar power is enough to mitigate the most negative consequences of adding solar to the mix (non-peaking thermal power plants do not like being cycled too fast, but solar has a fast reduction of generation when the sun goes down; batteries can smooth that curve by releasing power they stored during the mid-day peak).
If we started building a fusion commercial scale plant today (ie started by planning, permits, environmental assessments, public consultation, inevitable lawsuits, never mind actual construction and provisioning) it'd come online in what? 10 years? 15 years? 20 years?
Want to deploy more batteries? It can be online in months. And needs no more construction than a warehouse.
Financially fusion requires hundreds of billions, committed now, with revenue (not returns) projected at 10 years away (which will slide.) Whereas solar + storage (lots and lots of storage) requires anything from thousands to billions depending on how much you want to spend. We can start tomorrow, it'll be online in less than 2 years (probably a lot less) and since running costs are basically 0, immediate revenue means immediate returns.
Of course I'm not even allowing for fusion being "10 years" from "ready". It's been 10 years from ready for 50 years. By the time it is ready, much less the time before it comes online, it'll be redundant. And no one will be putting up the cash to build one.
"most people" even now are just parroting dumb FUD they read on facebook. You really shouldn't give any weight to the opinions of laypeople on topics that are as heavily propagandized and politically charged as renewable energy.
I find this somewhat amusing, because the black PR of the fossil-fuel industry would have us believe that EV batteries basically have a 2-year lifespan, cost lots of CO2 to produce, instantly become toxic waste after those 2 years, are non-recyclable, and overall as a result EVs emit more CO2 than gasoline-burning cars. We are being told that EVs have a larger CO2 footprint than gasoline-burners.
Then Redwood shows up with a perfect way to utilize all those discarded batteries without even opening them up, and… that toxic industrial junk isn't even there?
Also people forget how quickly EVs have grown. The Tesla Model 3 came out in 2017; that's eight years ago. That was pretty much the first mass market EV that got produced by the hundreds of thousands per year. It had eight years of battery warranty. Most EVs you see on the road were produced after 2017 and typically come with similar warranty. The simple reality is that the vast majority of EV batteries ever produced is still under it's factory warranty and nowhere near its warranty life time. The amount of gwh of battery that becomes available for companies like Redwood is fairly predictable as it is tied to the production volume 8-15 years ago.
Redwood is basically tapping into the growing number of cars that get scrapped early because of accidents or other failures. That's a smallish percentage of overall vehicles produced but at the rate EVs started getting produced around eight years ago, it's starting to add up to a few gwh of battery per year. It's not a lot yet but it's not that unpredictable. And it's not nothing. If you manufacturer new batteries at 80$/kwh, producing 1 gwh new would cost about 80M$. So giving batteries a second life has quite a bit of economic value. The issue for Redwood is probably more that competition for these batteries is quite fierce. There is a lot of valuable stuff you can do with these things and lots of companies eagerly looking to pick up second hand EVs for their batteries.
Redwood pitched recycling. But its principal business was primary production. (Processed black mass is analogous to lithium ore.) They're struggling because demand for American-made batteries remains low.
In time there will be consolidation. This constellation of EV startup bottom-feeders will be decimated along with the 'excuses' to not make money.
I don't think the problem is that EV batteries are lasting longer, it is just that the EV market from before the Model 3 came along is miniscule. Hence not many second hand batteries to recycle.
As for EV batteries and their availability, when was the last time you saw an OG Tesla Model S with the fake grill? Those cars used to be everywhere, but where are they now? The German EVs that came out to compete, for example, Taycan and eTron, those things are not going to last the distance since the repairs cost a fortune and the parts supply is limited.
All considered, there will come a time before 2040+ when there are large quantities of these electric car batteries to upcycle, by which time the EV business will be consolidated with only a few players.
If there was money in recycling cars then every auto manufacturer would be in on it.
In NZ you can get 60KWh used Tesla battery for 6-10k NZD, then spend another 1-2k for additional gear + labour to hack it (overall $116-200/KWh) or 15KWh for 3.5k ($233/KWh) with warranty and safety guarantees.
80% could indeed be plenty of usable life for your EV use cases, but it strongly depends on usage patterns. More degradation means more trips to the charger on a road trip. It means trips that you’d regularly make just charging at home at the end of day now require you to plug in at the destination too. It means more range anxiety as a whole.
128 more comments available on Hacker News