Black Swan Manager Sees Rally, Then 1929-Style Crash

I was so sure it’d happen in march, but the market can stay irrational…

The week before Black Monday in 1987 I was not too confident any more, and by Friday I knew we were screwed.

I didn't really get that feeling from stock market data, mainly general perception of everything else.

I wasn't even keeping up with the price of my stocks very often, I knew they were doing fine.

The most pessimistic bears thought the worst was coming as always, if it failed to make a new high and began a retreat it was thought that could be as bad as a 5% to 10% drop over a few months. Finding a bottom about like it was when nobody was worried at all. But I was not one of them. There weren't that many bearish with strong convictions either and overall sentiment was still way positive.

I decided to sell everything anyway, but it was too late. By Monday morning first thing, it could not be executed because I was only an individual account, not a high-roller, and those had highest priority. It just got too crowded too fast and dropped over 20% before the day was over.

without paywall: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/black-swan-manager-s...