X5.1 Solar Flare, G4 Geomagnetic Storm Watch

Also: 100 % cloud cover in basically all of Northern Europe :/ Iceland is probably the place to be for the aurora show!

> could impact our planet as early as 16 UTC on 12 November

Is that 16:00 or 00:16?

Could this destroy the ISS?

[1] is a real-time forecast for the auroral oval. See if you are in with a chance. Clear Skies!

[1] https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/auroral-activity/auroral...

Are we doomed by the next Carrington Event?

You can see the real time magnetic field change when it hits: https://dasi.barlow.cpi.com/dashboard

We won't know any actionable detail till about 1 hour before it arrives at Earth. That's when interplanetary coronal mass ejections actually have their magnetic field orientation and intensity measured by ACE and other satellites far out at the L1 lagrange point: https://services.swpc.noaa.gov/images/ace-mag-swepam-24-hour...

If you see the red line on this plot^, the interplanetary magnetic field, be more than -10 nanotesla for about 4 hours then there's a good chance of lower than normal latitude aurora. Negative means the magnetic field is pointing downwards out of the ecliptic plane of the solar system and this is the most energetically favorable orientation for reconnecting CME magnetic field lines with Earth's magnetic field lines and letting solar particles/energy in.

It can be 20nT positive (upwards) magnetic field with intense density and high velocity but still be a non-event aurora-wise just because energy is delivered to the Earth's ring currents at 10x slower rate than if it's pointing downwards.

None of the WSA-ENLIL or related predictive models take into consideration the magnetic field orientation of iCMEs because it's really hard to know from remote observations. They can be thought of as warnings to pay attention to the ACE L1 measurements.

Carrington event 2.0?

This has a pretty good view of the aurora now: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hfF9bhaBuvw

A severe geomagnetic storm is starting now (November 12 0000Z). But it's from the previous X-flares (X1.7 and X1.2), not the X5.1 flare.

G4 reached...

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/news/g4-severe-storm-levels-reache...

>G4 (Severe) Storm Levels Reached! published: Wednesday, November 12, 2025 01:40 UTC G4 (Severe) storm levels reached on 12 November at 0120 UTC (8:20pm EST)! Geomagnetic storm conditions are anticipated to continue into the night. Stay informed at spaceweather.gov for the latest. The included aurora images are of the aurora shining over northeastern Colorado.

Fully visible with naked eye in Kansas City. Beautiful magenta hues in the sky. My first time seeing an aurora in person.

Billions of tonnes of matter ejected at millions of kph. It’s shame we can’t harness that energy.

If you're in [redacted], was visible about 15m ago https://imgur.com/a/36cncec

Not so much now, but maybe it'll come back!

I saw this in the Denver area in Colorado, US an hour and a half ago. I looked up and couldn’t believe the sky was red. Took me a while to realize it was the aurora borealis. Very cool!

Dad sent me a photo [1] from Alaska of the red light. He said they rarely get it "so far south" (he is in southern Alaska).

[1] (Not a great photo, but you get the idea.) https://imgur.com/a/TfkcbJQ

I know there are a lot of comments from people saying they’ve seen it, but as I understand it this solar flare won’t hit until 16h UTC, or about 12 hours from now, and there are two weaker flares hitting about now that are currently visible? Is that understanding correct?

US power grid info:

PJM:

    Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning 
    11.11.2025 19:25 (PJM times are Eastern Standard).

    PJM-RTO
 

A Geomagnetic Disturbance Warning has been issued for 19:25 on 11.11.2025 through 04:00 on 11.12.2025 . A GMD warning of K7 or greater is in effect for this period.

This is only a warning. There are no listed actions being taken. When you see Geomagnetic Disturbance Action, not just Warning, there's a problem. That happened most recently on June 1, 2025. Extra people are probably on standby all night in case something happens.

CAISO: Nothing.

ERCOT: Nothing.

Hydro-Québec: Multiple snow-related outages near Montreal and some other locations.

Background info from the last time HN got wound up about this.[1]

[1] https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=44152154

I'm disappointed I missed it, I had disabled my Aurora phone alert after it woke me up for a 1% chance of seeing it a few weeks ago. I saw a bit of light in SE Michigan at about 1:30 AM EST, but just a tinge of green.

I'm in Ireland and went out last night to try and find it, last year I got some spectacular photos from my bedroom window. Alas it only peaked as it was over the US so sadly I missed out.

Ireland is far enough north that we actually get the aurora somewhat regularly. We rarely have clear skies though, making it a true "planets align" thing to actually see it.

The Swiss Weather Office official app has a crowdsourced photo gallery:

https://www.meteosuisse.admin.ch/services-et-publications/ap...

Look at the pictures from 3AM onwards on the 12 of November: you'll have a nice overview of how the aurora looked like from Switzerland (it's a time sensitive app and they certainly don't keep the pictures forever).

Is there a way to connect the Alert/Warnings/Watches from SWPC to specific events? It seems like there are at least three different solar events and it's hard for me to understand if they've all passed or if we're expecting more.

The flare is delaying a rocket launch due to concerns about the potential impact on the payload (two spacecraft bound for Mars):

"NG-2 Update: New Glenn is ready to launch. However, due to highly elevated solar activity and its potential effects on the ESCAPADE spacecraft, NASA is postponing launch until space weather conditions improve. We are currently assessing opportunities to establish our next launch window based on forecasted space weather and range availability."

https://twitter.com/blueorigin/status/1988621902881914961

This aurora looks predominantly red. The last big one had pinks and greens easily visible to the naked eye. I wonder what causes the difference.

I can currently photograph this on my mobile phone in seattle from my backyard, good times!

G4 is happening now https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/alerts-watches-and-warnin...

relevant xkcd: https://xkcd.com/2233/

cool super amazing

Shameless plug: active region (and sunspot group) 4274 has already produced several X-class solar flares, alas, I didn't manage to catch one during my short weekend imaging session. Though there was a nice prominence; 38-min time lapse (Earth to scale):

https://app.astrobin.com/u/GreatAttractor?i=9tkxay#gallery

looks like i'll be going out tonight

Reports of seeing the aurora right now across North America down to the US/Mexico border. If that describes you and you're not under cloud cover (like I unfortunately am) I'd recommend going outside and finding somewhere dark with a clear view north.

Cell phone cameras see it better than people for whatever reason, so looking at it through your phone is an option.

Request for "very low latitude" pictures from a researcher here: https://bsky.app/profile/vincentledvina.bsky.social/post/3m5...

what effect if any will the solar flare emissions have on the new ish constellation style satellite networks? and or vice versa? EG would a shielded group or constellation provide a pathway for charge particles around the Earth?

Down in Victoria, Australia. Looks like the clouds should clear just in time for night fall and a decent show. Very cool.

Aurora is going pretty strong here in northern Minnesota, filling most of the sky. A jet is going over way up there right now, they must be getting a hell of a show.

D Información de las representativas fórmulas para encuestar e secuestrar el circulo matemático q carcule la fuerza de velocidad es en el encontrar la física cuántica

Too bad, it's not about a wristwatch that displays geomagnetic storms.