Over $70t of Inherited Wealth Over Next Decade Will Widen Inequality, Economists
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Greed is an innate human trait.
Those are not the same, but too many don't know what's the differrence.
BTW: Most of the world lives under state capitalism, not capitalism, not socialism, not any other form of economic system. The state has an unrestricted claim to any and all of your wealth.
If this were universally the case, open source would not exist.
European social democracies are among the top of the wealthiest countries in the world.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_democracy
You seem to confuse capitalism with market economy. Germany's social market economy was conceived as an alternative to capitalism; a market economy with strong focus on unions and social fairness/justice. In other European countries is very similar.
Socialism core principles have always been égalite, solidarity and democracy. It's pretty silly to think that a highly hierarchical, unjust and undemocratic system has anything to do with Socialism.
Hint; it doesn't. It might say so on the marketing material ("Socialist Republic!") but that's just that - marketing to fool the numbnuts.
Just a thought.
Argentina (the end game of social democracy) pre-Milei had a huge array of taxes and regulations which lead to the state misusing that money to actually enrich a small elite of politically aligned. Similar things and arrangements (under the form of subsidies to companies) will happen under Trump and levying more taxes will just give more opportunity for corruption.
Hence the proposal by many economists that the only solution is a broad agreement on a global progressive wealth tax, with at least the major blocs of the US and EU on board. See e.g. "A Brief History of Inequality".
The same proposal is also criticized by many economists too, who argue that inequality has not risen as sharply as Piketty's crew claims, or that the bulk of that inequality is linked to the real estate, for which the only solution is build more houses and destroy the capital accumulation of older generation to the profit on newer ones.
1: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/deciphering-the-fall-and-...
But I would argue that the situation in housing is actually a consequence, and not a separate phenomenon, of the broader issue of inequality-driven asset price inflation.
The problem with countries like UK is that real estate is the only way of obtaining, growing and keeping wealth there. And I mean the only.
In France wealth tax was repealed in 2017 I think but will be soon reintroduced under a new form.
It's an unfortunate fact that significant change happens rarely without large convulsions, e.g. after a major war, because I don't see this being sustainable even medium-term.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Capital_in_the_Twenty-First_Ce... and subsequent
1: https://www.davidsplinter.com/AutenSplinter-2024-ReplyToPSZ....
2: https://philmagness.com/2014/12/an-empirical-critique-of-tho...
3: https://qz.com/1725562/elizabeth-warrens-economic-advisers-a...
EDIT: Here is the rebuttal for 2 by Piketty himself: http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/Piketty2014Tec... courtesy of andrepd
Who has not been criticize in their methodology? Who do you expect to avoid any amount of "controversies" for such a political subject?
Your comment seems to be pure ad hominem. Also, discarding authors because they're French is kinda stupid: historically, quick advances in a field most often start at one time and place.
It would be like expecting American economists to be very libertarian, or Chinese economists very interventionists. The culture of their countries reflects their ideas.
NB: J'habite en France
Because the politics precede the findings
I think it's important to separate the empirical and analytic part, to which you can apply objective criticisms, to the political part, with which you can agree or not but which should have no bearing on the former part.
Anyway if you want to be honest you can also link to Piketty's rebuttal to the criticism, e.g. http://piketty.pse.ens.fr/files/capital21c/en/Piketty2014Tec...
I agree, there is a difference between the technical and political parts. Sorry if I seemed dishonest, but I cited both the 2014 critique as well as a more general 2024 PSZ critique (from right wing POVs) including other economists who usually post on the same subject of income inequality. I will edit my original comment to include Piketty's rebuttals.
One can simply look at historical income taxes in the USA and their progressiveness and conclude that over time taxes tend to regress until some economic calamity or war happens, after which taxes become extremely progressive again for a short while (top income tax rate bracket of 75% to 90%).
See for yourself, it's all there:
https://files.taxfoundation.org/legacy/docs/fed_individual_r...
Lack of housing is a disconnected problem from inheritance taxes.
This assumes that each family only gets a single house. With enough wealth you can buy out all the houses (not considering other factors)
If that is not the case, I unfortunately still didn't get your point.
Why are houses so expensive? Alongside challenges and inefficiences related to permits and building (as plenty discussed elsewhere) housing is also used as an investment asset by people with money to invest. This ranges from individuals buying an apartment to rent out, to large investment and private equity firms buying up whole swathes of real estate. When the global money supply is increased (e.g. post-2008 crash, post-Covid, etc.) a lot of it ends up with the rich, who then invest directly or indirectly in asset classes including housing. (Also see how e.g. classic car prices have increased since ~'08).
Until this mechanism is recognised as the cause of asset appreciation and measures are put in place to reverse this trend, the current cost-of-living issues will continue to worsen. Sadly, most politicians are already rich enough to benefit from this situation, and so --in the unlikely event that they even recognise this as a cause-- are unlikely to strongly advocate for measures to address it. Additionally, politics in many countries is too intertwined with big business to mean that such a revolutionary concept would be entertained.
tl;dr: addressing the huge progressive accumulation of wealth by the rich --of which inheritance is one aspect-- is what is needed to address the continual appreciation in so many asset classes, including housing.
What do you mean "until"? It's the core of many of European "dreams".
Take UK for example, where there's a concept called "property ladder". This property ladder is the promise of ever increasing property values, to build wealth(it's a pyramid scheme). This "always appreciating" promise is not just subtextual, it's literally the core of the method for becoming wealthy.
Whole economies in Europe are built around this constant real estate appreciation and first-home-buyers' support.
This is becoming the case in US as well, to lesser extent. US has a much more dynamic property market, than the wealthy Europe.
Politicians will bend over backwards to protect this "dream"... and at this point it is screwing over the new generation.
Sorry if I was unclear; I'm not referring to the "housing ladder" here, but rather that the accumulation of wealth (accelerated in recent years) by the already-rich has driven investment patterns that have in turn driven the appreciation of many asset classes that sit behind the current "cost of living crisis".
If one accepts this premise, then an obvious solution would be wealth taxation, of which inheritance tax is one form. But very few people in the politican/economics sphere are seriously talking about wealth taxation. (There are some, e.g. Gary Stevenson, and Zack Polanski is gently flirting with it as a policy.)
And what do you suggest for those that don't have any inheritance?
The reason there is an issue with housing is the same reason why these articles appear declaiming the political risks (notice, Stigliz only says the risk is political...his friends losing office) of inequality.
This will continue forever, it is ingrained in human nature, it is why it took tens of thousands of years for economic growth to happen from the birth of modern human society.
Only if you don't build enough new homes in places where people desire to live, because you can own a home - just not where you want to actually live.
Right now (where i live) you pay a big tax on inheritance, this is ok if you only inherit cash. In 99% of inheritances this is not the case. You inherit family home, a cottage etc. Then you must sell because you cant afford to pay for it. Now the asset is gone forever and the next generation will most likely inherit nothing.
Its really hard to keep anything of value in the family because of this, that one house that was purchased for 60K is now somehow worth 600K (even it has all kinds of problems) and you need to take a loan just to keep it.
By taxing inheritance its sure that decendants that work basic jobs will forever be poor.
Someone who wants to spend an inheritance is going to do it, whether it’s liquid (cash) or marginally less so (real property)
Once you sell it you pay more taxes. Do you think any of the money you got will go to your kids, or even grandkids? Id say in 80% of all cases it will be long gone before that time comes.
You are not "earning" something you are continuing to "own" something that was already yours, shared with people who were here and are no longer here.
I only spent about twenty two years in my parent's house (well less, because we moved), but you're making an emotive argument while I was arguing more from a data-driven point of view.
The Irish inheritance tax is more generous to children (325k euro per child is tax free), but even in the UK, my three siblings and I would have paid zero tax. And our inheritance is quite large, lots of people in the UK & Ireland inherit much less.
Like, the ONS data[0] (which covers 2014-16) suggests that most inheritences go to the top quintile in terms of income (which anecdotally matches my experience) so this is a tiny, tiny problem in societal terms.
I get that inheritance tax is very emotive (particularly around family homes), but given that the vast majority of wealth is in property (except for that of the 0.1%), then I think inheritance tax is a pretty good one, and am happy that it's something that my kids will have to worry about, assuming we're lucky enough to leave them anything.
For context, I regard inherited wealth as mostly unfair, as the children of successful people have often had lots of advantages afforded to them already, so I'm not sure why those advantages should compound over generations.
[0]: https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personal...
Note: the ONS statistics are weird, talking about inheritances and gifts interchangeably and the numbers seem far too low. Figure 7 shows the unfairness clearly, IMO.
Ridiculous straw man, because this is like saying income tax should be abolished because minimum wage people can't afford it. Yeah no shit that's why it's progressive. In the case of inheritance, even a 0% bracket until ~1M$ will mean the tax leaves the middle class entirely unaffected while ensuring massive feudal-levels of generational wealth are at least curbed, and turned over to the commons.
This means your 800K asset maybe gives you 650K, and from that sum you still pay the inheritance tax + sales tax (thats usually in the 20% range).
You will likely get somewhere in the 450-500K for an asset that was worth 800K.
This is how to poor will remain poor.
The whole property market in UK is a pyramid scheme, time to realize that.
The whole system is FUBARed.
we all make our own way in the modern world and i feel as a society we try to not just leave it to fate and how gilded the vagina you crawled out of was
What you do with your life is up to you, but having a guardrail can make life just that more pleasant. Life should not be about counting cents and going from pay-check to pay-check.
The inheritance tax has to go somewhere. It could go into science and infrastructure and then everyone gets richer. Or it could be paid out as a dividend, then everyone below the average gets richer. There are many options here. Just saying "inheritance tax bad" without talking about the output side of such a tax is by definition going to be... well.. weird.
So we shouldn't really argue for raising or lower taxes, we should argue for spending it better.
This incentivises the rich to split up their fortune, and allows the poor to keep control of objects with emotional luggage.
That said, if the value of your house has grown tenfold, it is most likely because the community added that value. And so I don't think it is necessarily wrong if that same community sees some of that value back.
Isn't the fact that the ultra rich are using their wealth productively the reason we have growing wealth inequality? Because active money grows faster than inflation, which is why they get richer compared to the rest of us over time.
Or in other words: money grows if you use it. If you just put it in a bank account it slowly erodes away under inflation.
personally I think the only real solution is slowing down by reducing incentives to keep growing money (or stock value) by implementing some kind of tax ceiling in turn slowing down innovation and instead hoping that giving more people the ability to grow (easier access to education, healthcare, opportunity) eventually outweights the disadvantages of having such a ceiling
Billionaires have dozens of other things like the above that makes thos an issue
There is some kind of bizarre world that we live in that the article has a quote from Ramaphosa, the totality of his extraordinary wealth was generated by corruption, on the terrors of inequality.
Hoarding is, generally, not a real problem because it requires believing that wealthy people are not greedy. The problem is that most societies heavily incentivize irrational behaviour through disincentivizing investment. Strangely, these same places also have political cultures that focus heavily on inequality (again, there is no better example than South Africa) because genuine openness tends to be very disruptive politically.
There is no way to square the circle. The solutions are known, the problem is that human nature and political culture tends to prevent those solutions being realised (as it is more politically beneficial to continue to sell people lies: it is this group of people, they are the problem, if we can take their money and give it you then you will be rich).
If a net worth of $2 mil is considered outrageous then surely that kind of salary would be considered equally so.
There should be no wealth tax, but above a certain threshold - there should be a maintenance fee associated with the wealth. I get charged maintenance fee by my mutual funds, for example.
One of the purposes of the government is to protect and secure property... and that is what ultra wealthy are getting for a fraction of what they should be paying.
There is a lot of low hanging fruit.
Arguably capital gains should be taxed at a higher rate than income. But that's not going to happen, because your home's change in value is capital gains.
That rate will not be where you and I live. It will be some tiny foreign government.
And when some of those people say no? That seems like either a short lived con or very quickly we are bombing people.
Why not just literally put a gun to someones head and rob them then? Skip the middlemen. Bombs are expensive as is jet fuel.
Cool, cool. Work for 30 years, save up and have say $3M to retire on, based on stock market at an all-time high. You're not a robber baron or investment banker, just someone who worked a long time and saved and invested. Govt takes $1M away from you, you have $2M now. Market drops 25%. Now you have $1.5M.
Congrats, your "plan" resulted in someone like that having HALF of everything they saved up just gone.
Yeah, yeah, I know, "if you have $1.5M you don't NEED any more money." Sounds like something that only someone with something less than $1.5M would say.
You don't "need" your iPhone, or your flat screen, or whatever. The government should not be in the business of determining what you "need" and taking the rest.
Now that 'progress' is actively optimizing things in a way where large amounts of the public's lives are getting worse, you are going to have to give a better response. Because right now progress is synonymous with improved rent seeking, worse access to food (and food that is now noticeably optimized to be of poorer quality), worse access to housing, worse working conditions, and on, and on.
The benefits of wealth are exercised long before the inheritance can be applied.
Your first home down payment, your education, your wealth generation while being on support by your parents, etc. - will push you off the ground faster, than any inheritance in a world where people easily live to 80-90. Most people hit retirement age, by the time their parents pass away.
Inheritance tax doesn't work anymore, in any case.
It's not the 19th century and we shouldn't try fixing 21 century issues with 19th century remedies.
A yearly tax of a few percent on all capital assets.
Well, not quite.
EU made this easy with the UBO register, it takes just political will.
Agreed.
But isn't that an argument FOR a strong inheritance tax? Because inheritance doesn't actually help your children anyway? That seems like it was your argument.
With that argument taking 100% of the inheritance as tax and taking 0% is exactly the same, as the wealth transfer was done before anyway.
Wealth disparity doesn't grow because wealthy people are allowed to retain their generational wealth or not, it grows because the rest can't build and retain their wealth.
This isn't a zero sum game.
PS: I would also not trust the government or any political body to handle income from the inheritance taxes. So I would rather the children of wealthy people squander their wealth, than a politician transfer that wealth to their patron.
Yeah it does. The way compounding interest works means at some point that your passive accumulation of savings will outpace what most workers can earn as a salary. You can't really combat that by throwing more money at workers.
It's just mathematically impossible to let wealth run rampant in an individual like that and expect everyone to keep up with their limited hours of energy.
>This isn't a zero sum game.
It isn't. But with modern labor habits the billionaires want to make it one. That's why there isn't such thing as an 'earned billionaire'. They take from workers, lobby government to pay less, engage on anti-competitive behavior, or outright commit crimes to get to that point. The best case billionaire merely inherits the wealth and lets it accumulate, but I don't see many people like that these days who also don't fall into the other points.
>I would also not trust the government or any political body to handle income from the inheritance taxes.
Well someone has to. The us government has most things in record, so they are the easiest to audit.
This is more a sign that we need to pay more attention to politics and trustworthy figures who will self regulate. As in, pass laws that hold them and future policy makers in check.
thus the importance of the sovereign fund.
Why? Just "having wealth" isn't important in itself, it's just a number in a computer. So there is something else you are trying to get at. What is it?
> Wealth disparity doesn't grow because wealthy people are allowed to retain their generational wealth or not, it grows because the rest can't build and retain their wealth.
Disparity happens when two groups diverge. That's what disparity means. As long as the richest have a higher growth rate, the disparity grows.
> This isn't a zero sum game.
That's a different conversation though. You talked about wealth disparity, not about quality of living or something. THERE it's not a zero sum game. But in wealth disparity it is by definition a zero sum game.
> I would also not trust the government or any political body to handle income from the inheritance taxes.
But you would trust the wealthy? Ok.. but...
> So I would rather the children of wealthy people squander their wealth, than a politician transfer that wealth to their patron.
So you don't trust the wealthy either?
I don't understand what you are arguing at this point.
And yes, we should "hold back the successful". Taking 99% of a billion dollars still lands someone with a career's worth of savings to tap into. That's how utterly ahead they are. And it's clear they used that power to ransack the nation. So be luck "holding them back" is the only stipulation here.
I'd much rather we have checks in place to stop individuals from accumulating megawealth in the first place (or at least slow it down), rather than relying on an inheritance tax which takes effect long after the accumulation happened.
Yes. And we are already on "too late" mode. So we should go with the 2nd best solution because the best one (actually taxing billionaires) won't work retroactively.
>I'd much rather we have checks in place to stop individuals from accumulating megawealth in the first place (or at least slow it down), rather than relying on an inheritance tax which takes effect long after the accumulation happened.
Both would be nice. I don't see this as mutually exclusive. Though proper wealth taxes will lessen the need for inheritance tax. But not in all cases.
You can perform a "child fund to the parents instead if you need earlier impact. And maybe we will need that as an incentive as 1st world populations decline. But it might not make a difference based on the spending habits of the parent.
So it's, er, probably not a great model case here.
Most 80 year olds know they arent going to live forever and would probably just transfer their assets a little early.
Is it though? I think most very wealthy people are already using more complex structures like trusts and whatnot.
> Moving that level of money already has so many stupulations.
Like what exactly?
>Like what exactly?
In the very brodest sense, anything that involves turning I realizing gains into liquidity will be taxed. Investing it into assets like property will have that taxed, unless you choose to go to very specific areas. Throwing it into a business will jabr capital taxes.
Exceptions are disproportionatly utilized, but there are in fact more ways to be taxed on your money than not. That's why a lot of the current mechanisms lie less in "grab money, get taxed, use it" and more "point to money, get loans, stay in 'debt' and use not your money make money".
Sure, but there is a very very big difference between capital gains tax and inheritence tax. Most proposals for inheritence tax are on the entire value of the property being inherited. Capital gains taxes are just on the difference in value between when you got it and when you sold it.
If every transfer of property behaved like an inheritence tax, the economy would probably screech to a halt as you effectively couldn't sell anything without taking a huge hit.
I don't see the downside unless you think it's fine for children to simply millionaires for being related to one.
Any tax plan that requires people to be stupid in order to be taxed is a bad one because then the only people who get taxed are poor people who can't afford to hire an accountant to figure these things out for them.
The obvious way to close that loophole would be to tax capital gains at the same way as inheritence, but the side effects of that seem disasterous.
> I don't see the downside unless you think it's fine for children to simply millionaires for being related to one.
I think the downside is that the actual affect of the plan would be that really rich people would be unaffected, and if anyone was actually taxed it would be low-mid income people. Thus further cementing inequality.
But America is so thoroughly owned by the wealthy that implementing one of these solutions is not desirable. The legislature in America only works on behalf of the ultra wealthy and any legislation that passes will be to increase the magnitude of the wealth gap.
A lot genuinely have no idea that there's a very high lower limit on inheritance tax... at the same time they hate the ultra rich.
This is genuinely a very schizophrenic country.
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