EU Agrees to Gradually End Russian Gas Imports by January 1, 2028

I'm not saying there's no deliberate delay in this, nor that the EU is entirely united in this. But to the 2028 date: Contracts for supply like this have penalty clauses, and the consequences for future gas contracts with any supply would be high if the termination did not respect international contract law. 2028 is only 2 and a bit years off, a multi-year contract is not implausible.

Remember that Iranian banking assets and aircraft parts have been tied up in embargos for multiple decades. These kinds of things feel like "if I was king for a day..." solvable, but the awful reality of modern life means respect for contract matters, at least between most economies. There's a newer trend to act like the agreement has no force, because no force can be brought if you decide to tear it up. But that ignores the economic forces which come back into the room when you try to re-negotiate on favourable terms next time round.

re-negotiate here, in the widest sense: Europe will be importing gas an oil products for a long time, worldwide. The nature of a supply contract and the capital investment in pipes, engines to process supply, pumping and distribution is a capital outlay which expects decades of recovery time on fee. If the Nordstream pipes don't get used, some bank is carrying debt. If future pipes need to be built, some bank expects to see a return on investment.

I think 2028 is achievable. I wish they'd moved faster on this, and put some systems resilience into place back when the signals were clear. Obviously it's not like nothing has been happening the last 2 years, I just don't think it's been happening fast enough.

I hope little Ukrainian drones will help expedite the EOL of those contracts...