S&p Affirms 'aa+' Credit Rating for Us, Cites Impact of Tariff Revenue
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Economic Policy
S&P affirms the US 'AA+' credit rating, citing tariff revenue as a factor, sparking debate among commenters about the implications and accuracy of this decision.
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Assuming this is true, which it may not be given that the deficit (not debt…) continues to rise despite the tariff revenues, it basically points to the fact that the US is cutting taxes on the richest and funding it with a federal sales tax on all.
In a sense it is almost "all", most products Americans consume depend on imported inputs.
In the end the companies aren't taxed, they just pass the cost downwards to the consumer, it's a VAT with many extra steps.
Tariffs are a consumption tax. Wealthy individuals tend to leverage their wealth to spend more money.
Wealthy individuals own a larger share of businesses. Those businesses once again will bear the burden of these tariffs along with their consumers.
Compare this to a payroll tax. This is a direct tax that scales as a company’s employee base scales. This directly harms employees by decreasing their salary. It also decreases the number of employees a company can hire.
Compare this to a corporate income tax. This also increases prices and decreases employment. This is not much different than tariffs. However tariffs are targeted and create incentives to produce more within a nation (ie more domestic jobs).
Tariffs also provide a counterbalance against companies outsourcing (a technique that depresses domestic wages and encourages financial creativity to dodge federal taxes by establishing foreign based entities (eg Double Irish Agreement)
What happens to rating agencies that dare cut US ratings? Surely nothing good. So they will keep saying things are good - either because they are, or because they aren't, but they cannot say.
But then of course ratings, especially of sovereign debt, are kind of meaningless anyway. The ratings agencies don't have any extra information or deeper analysis available. They know as much as a basic investor, but have no upside in being smarter. The ratings revisions are always reactive, and only really matter because plenty of investors have to avoid bonds below a certain grade.
So it's a demeaning of a meaningless number perhaps.
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