Payrolls Faced Downward Revisions Due to Faulty Birth-Death Model

Posted4 months agoActive4 months ago

ryan_j_naughton

4 points

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seekingalpha.comOtherstory

calmnegative

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Labor MarketEconomic IndicatorsMonetary Policy

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Labor Market

Economic Indicators

Monetary Policy

The faulty birth-death model led to downward revisions in payrolls, potentially impacting the Fed's monetary policy decisions.

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01Story posted
Sep 10, 2025 at 1:45 AM EDT
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Discussion (1 comments)

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toomuchtodo

4 months ago

The bad news is the model needs fixing, the other bad news is the Fed is behind due to bad model output around the health of the labor market and might need to cut faster to keep the labor market reasonably healthy.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch...

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ID: 45193776Type: storyLast synced: 11/17/2025, 6:10:09 PM

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