Spacex to Start Sending Dragon Capsules to Mars in 2 Years
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A 2016 tweet claiming SpaceX would send Dragon capsules to Mars in two years has resurfaced, sparking debate about the company's past and present ambitions. Commenters jumped on the outdated tweet, with some poking fun at the original poster's "spaceman bad" fixation, while others seriously discussed SpaceX's lunar lander plans and the likelihood of meeting aggressive timelines. As it turned out, the original poster owned up to their "spaceman bad" obsession and the tweet's age, prompting some to joke about being baited into commenting on an outdated post. The thread highlights the enduring fascination with SpaceX's Mars ambitions and the importance of verifying the age of viral tech tweets.
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Aug 26, 2025 at 2:46 AM EDT
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Then, they are working on it by working on Starship
Edit: 'two years' is unlikely, but Mars does have an atmosphere, so something like a Dragon capsule could land there with a parachute. That's not going to work so well on the moon
You've been baited by a post from 2016 ... If you look at OPs post history it's mostly spaceman bad related. A clue, perhaps.
Anyway, a bit of context:
At the time of this post, SpaceX was looking at using the Dragon tech tree to land on both the Moon and Mars, using Dragon variants. Gray Dragon for the Moon and Red Dragon for Mars. One would use just retro-propulsion and the other would use a heat shield, parachutes and retro propulsion.
Around the time this was announced they were hoping to develop a retro propulsion mode for using Dragon's SuperDraco thrusters (the ones used for capsule escape when flying with passengers) to enable landing on land. NASA didn't want this tech, as they considered the cost/benefit - risk/reward analysis not worth it. So SpaceX found themselves in a situation of developing something that their main customer didn't want, for little to no benefit for their commercial offerings.
Hence, the idea was shelved. (I think, but not sure, that they later enabled the SuperDracos to be able to activate and soft land in case of catastrophic failure of the parachutes. Or they were thinking about it)
Instead they came up with an alternative tech stack. The MCTS (Mars Colonial Transport System? I think) later turned into BFR (Big "falcon" Rocket) later turned into the Starship project.
The Starship is what's currently being tested, with the 10th test flight happening these days (scrubbed last night for weather). It's also what they'll use for their Starlink big sats, Moon and Mars.
So, while it's true that Red Dragons didn't "line up like trains" for mars in 2018, the proposed architecture is much more ambitious, and obviously taking longer. But they've flown the stack 9 times already, so they're making progress. Their factory is already pumping 3rd generation engines, ships and 2nd generation boosters. (They've caught the boosters 2 times, AND successfully reflown one already)
And millions of people are still falling for it. Simply amazing and historic times.
Thanks, I didn't notice the date. So, I wasted my time commenting on it.... thanks a bunch, OP
Yes, I noticed the 'spaceman bad' vibe, but I don't mind trying to discuss it. I'm certainly not on the 'spaceman bad' team, but probably on the 'spaceman getting worse' side.
Edit: thanks for your comment anyway. It's informative
(Note that the vastly thinner Martian atmosphere is a huge issue for parachutes. And obviously there's no water for a "splash down" landing.)
The Starship portion of the Artemis contracts are structured such that SpX only gets money once certain milestones are completed (i.e. reach orbit, show orbital re-fuelling, land on the Moon, etc.
Just an aside, SpX is one of the few (only?) big space companies that don't bid on "cost+" contracts. They've only taken fixed cost contracts so far. And they've saved NASA ~ 7-14B$ to date on those contracts (by NASA's own numbers). Just look at the ISS crew program, they've taken ~1/2 of what Boeing took, they've finished the first tranche of crew missions, they're now on the 2nd tranche, and Boeing hasn't flown one crew mission yet. In fact they've fumbled the test flight so bad that there's a real possibility that they'll have to re-do it.
2024: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1832550322293837833
2021: https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1390386652007251970
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